Ihor Vechirko

The study aims to investigate the relationships between the volume of net migration and the economic development of individual European countries, which will make it possible to forecast the level of GDP and strengthen their migration policy. Correlation-regression analysis was used based on statistical data from Eurostat and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2014−2021 for selected European countries (the EU-27 member states, Switzerland, and Ukraine). The correlation-regression analysis showed a relationship between the volume of net migration and the level of GDP. The linear correlation equations forecasted the value of the GDP level depending on the influence of a single factor – the volume of net migration. The attention is focused on the importance of migration, which ensures economic growth for Poland. It is attractive due to a simpler mechanism for moving immigrants than in other EU-27 countries, ease of language learning and easier adaptation, territorial proximity, and a higher standard of living compared to neighboring countries that were part of the Soviet Union. Thus, an increase in net migration to Poland by 1% will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 1.43 million euros. Due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, net migration from Ukraine to Poland has increased significantly, potentially increasing Poland’s GDP in 2023 by 0.08% or 529.54 million euros.

Ukrainian universities operate under uncertain conditions and numerous challenges during wartime, significantly affecting their stability. This paper aims to identify and classify the key risks to the stability of Ukrainian universities during wartime and propose proactive tools for their mitigation. The study focuses on financial, personnel, and social risks, which are highlighted as the most critical under current circumstances. The data were sourced from the official websites of 10 universities, Open Budget, and the official websites of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The methodology combines theoretical analysis and statistical evaluation, including calculating marginal income – representing the portion of income covered by variable costs – and the operating margin ratio, defined as the ratio of marginal income to total income. Financial risks include a 7.9% reduction in education budget allocations, decreased subsidies, and insufficient state support. Personnel risks are analyzed through indicators, e.g., uncompetitive average hourly wages, leading to staff attrition and reduced motivation. The findings propose a multi-level classification of risks, categorizing them into external and internal with subcategories such as financial, personnel, and social ones. Non-traditional financial measures, such as unpaid leave and allowance reductions, were observed as short-term crisis strategies but require further evaluation to assess their long-term impact. The paper contributes to academic discourse by outlining challenges to university stability during wartime and providing a foundation for future research into effective risk mitigation strategies.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Ensuring entrepreneurial stability of the business environment constitutes an important objective of public administration, particularly relevant amid global political and economic instability and exposure to external shocks, especially for minimizing the risks of financial distress and preventing corporate bankruptcy. The study aims to assess the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) as a percentage of GDP and the level of entrepreneurial stability as a prerequisite for reducing bankruptcy intensity and ensuring the sustainable functioning of enterprises. Correlation and regression analyses are applied for the 2016–2023 data across 15 EU countries selected according to the criterion of data availability. The results reveal the association between FDI (% of GDP) and a composite indicator of entrepreneurial stability, which indirectly reflects the resilience of enterprises to bankruptcy and crisis phenomena. A cross-country differentiation allows for the classification of four groups: countries with a strong negative association (Germany, France, Latvia, Lithuania), a strong positive association (the Netherlands, Romania), a medium level of association (Estonia, Spain, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus), and a weak relationship (Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Norway). Using the ARDL model, both short-term and lagged effects between FDI and entrepreneurial stability have been identified, as well as their impact on financial resilience and the reduction of bankruptcy probability over time. The regression models enable the assessment of the impact of FDI on business stability, forecasting bankruptcy risks, and supporting managerial decision-making to stimulate entrepreneurial activity and enhance economic security.