Relationship between net migration and economic development of European countries: Empirical conclusions

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The study aims to investigate the relationships between the volume of net migration and the economic development of individual European countries, which will make it possible to forecast the level of GDP and strengthen their migration policy. Correlation-regression analysis was used based on statistical data from Eurostat and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2014−2021 for selected European countries (the EU-27 member states, Switzerland, and Ukraine). The correlation-regression analysis showed a relationship between the volume of net migration and the level of GDP. The linear correlation equations forecasted the value of the GDP level depending on the influence of a single factor – the volume of net migration. The attention is focused on the importance of migration, which ensures economic growth for Poland. It is attractive due to a simpler mechanism for moving immigrants than in other EU-27 countries, ease of language learning and easier adaptation, territorial proximity, and a higher standard of living compared to neighboring countries that were part of the Soviet Union. Thus, an increase in net migration to Poland by 1% will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 1.43 million euros. Due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, net migration from Ukraine to Poland has increased significantly, potentially increasing Poland’s GDP in 2023 by 0.08% or 529.54 million euros.

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    • Figure 1. Changes in the volume of net migration in individual European countries in 2021 compared to 2013, %
    • Figure 2. Changes in the volume of GDP created in individual European countries in 2021 compared to 2013, %
    • Figure 3. Density of relationship (r) between net migration and the volumes of the created gross domestic product in certain European countries
    • Figure 4. Actual and projected volumes of net migration in Poland, persons
    • Figure 5. Projected volume of GDP in Poland taking into account one factor – net migration, millions of euros
    • Table 1. Impact of net migration (x) on the level of gross domestic product (Y)
    • Conceptualization
      Serhii Kozlovskyi, Tetiana Kulinich, Ivan Zayukov
    • Formal Analysis
      Serhii Kozlovskyi, Tetiana Kulinich, Ivan Zayukov
    • Methodology
      Serhii Kozlovskyi, Tetiana Kulinich
    • Project administration
      Serhii Kozlovskyi
    • Supervision
      Serhii Kozlovskyi, Ruslan Lavrov, Ivan Zayukov
    • Writing – original draft
      Serhii Kozlovskyi, Ivan Zayukov
    • Writing – review & editing
      Serhii Kozlovskyi, Ihor Vechirko, Ruslan Lavrov, Ivan Zayukov, Hennadii Mazur
    • Investigation
      Tetiana Kulinich, Ruslan Lavrov
    • Resources
      Tetiana Kulinich, Ihor Vechirko, Ruslan Lavrov, Ivan Zayukov, Hennadii Mazur
    • Visualization
      Tetiana Kulinich, Ihor Vechirko, Hennadii Mazur
    • Data curation
      Ihor Vechirko, Ivan Zayukov, Hennadii Mazur
    • Funding acquisition
      Ihor Vechirko, Ruslan Lavrov, Hennadii Mazur
    • Software
      Ihor Vechirko
    • Validation
      Ruslan Lavrov, Hennadii Mazur