Substantiating the factors of influence on the employment level in the transport industry of Ukraine

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The trends and problems of the national labor market are projected in various economic sectors, supplemented by specific features determined by the peculiarities of a certain sector. The formation of workforce capacity in the transport industry of Ukraine has a particular significance; this branch is the main infrastructure component of the sustainable development of the economic system of any level, ensures national economic security, and deals with the logistics complex as a whole. This is the reason why consideration of the global, national, and local tendencies of labor markets’ development and identification of the main determinants of influence on the endogenous environment is necessary for the enterprises of the transport industry, which creates the need for a research in this area. The main trends of the labor market development at all levels of the economic system – from global to industry – have been determined. The multidirectional tendency has been revealed: on the one hand, the industry shows a negative tendency to decrease in volumes in kind, and it is logical to assume that the need for personnel will also decrease, and on the other hand, there is an increasing number of job vacancies. This indicates the imbalance between national and sectoral economic systems and the management of economic processes “in manual mode”, and the need to forecast the number of employees in the industry as the basis of the workforce capacity of transport enterprises. The factors influencing the number of employed in the transport industry have been substantiated: cargo turnover, passenger turnover, and salary level, and a hypothesis for assessing their impact is suggested, which is confirmed by a correlation and regression analysis, which made it possible to generate a forecast model of the number of employed depending on the substantiated factors. The developed model may be applied to predict the number of people employed in the transport industry, taking into account the above factors.

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    • Figure 1. Методика формування моделі оцінювання рівня чисельності зайнятого населення в транспортній галузі
    • Figure 2. Ланцюгові темпи приросту показників транспортної сфери за 2013-2017 рр.
    • Figure 3. Динаміка вакансій в Україні та за сферою транспорту
    • Table 1. Аналіз динаміки показників з праці транспортної сфери України
    • Table 2. Аналіз руху працівників підприємств у 2017 р. – І-ІІ кв. 2018 р.
    • Table 3. Масив даних щодо факторів та залежної змінної
    • Table 4. Ланцюгові темпи приросту факторів та залежної змінної, %
    • Table 5. Масив даних щодо факторів та залежної змінної після 4-х ітерацій експоненціального згладжування
    • Table 6. Кореляційна матриця