Svitlana Mishchenko

The article analyzes the influence of inflation on economic growth and substantiates the main directions of increasing the effectiveness of the central bank's anti-inflation policy.
In order to determine the limit of inflation, the excess of which has a negative impact on the economic growth, the relationship is analyzed between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate on the basis of IMF statistics using the example of 158 countries. It was determined that in 2010–2017, in the global economy, the 6.0% inflation was the marginal value of the inflation rate, beyond which the economic growth rate declined or slowed down.
Given the inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rates as well as empirical calculations for the period 1996–2017, the threshold for inflation rate for Ukraine at the level of 4.51% was determined based on empirical calculations for the 1996–2017 period. The results indicate that the National Bank of Ukraine set the inflation target above the level of the calculated threshold inflation.
It has also been established that the link between the rates of nominal GDP growth, as opposed to real GDP, and the inflation rate, is more direct and more tight. It is substantiated that to analyze such dependence it is better to use GDP deflator instead of CPI. The results indicate that deflation constrains economic growth much less than inflation.
In order to increase the effectiveness of the central bank’s pro-cyclical monetary policy aimed at supporting economic growth, the relationship between the rates of real GDP growth and the indicator characterizing the gap between the growth rates of M3 and inflation, which actually reflects the real money supply dynamics, is determined. The results obtained allowed to conclude that in 2009 and 2014-2017, the artificial “squeezing” of the money supply took place in Ukraine, resulting in a decrease in the level of the economy monetization by 22.0% in 2017 compared to 2013.
It has been proved that in order to minimize the negative impact of inflationary processes on economic growth, the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine should be aimed at eliminating the artificial squeezing of the money supply through a reasonable increase in the economy monetization and the implementation of an effective monetary policy.

The slowdown in economic development caused by the reduction in the efficiency of the functioning of state institutions determined the focus of the governments of most countries of the world on achieving sustainable economic growth, as well as ensuring macroeconomic and macrofinancial stability. A major issue that is dealt with is the weakening of the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine. It can be assumed that one of the reasons hindering economic growth is growing discoordination between monetary and fiscal policies. The purpose of this study is to assess the nature of monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine in 2000–2017 and justify the need for coordination between them to stimulate economic growth. For the quantitative assessment of the influence of monetary and fiscal factors on GDP, the models of autoregression with distributed lags – ARDL are used. The analysis makes it possible to distinguish and characterize three stages of combining the rigid and stimulating monetary and fiscal policy in Ukraine in 2000–2017. The article examines the influence of the dynamics of the monetary aggregate M3, the inflation rate and the weighted average base interest rate on the growth rates of real GDP in Ukraine, the impact of using the “monetary clamp” effect on the increase in the NBU’s interest rate, and the direct effect of monetary factors on the fiscal policy. The authors conclude that the inconsistency of monetary and fiscal policies is one of the reasons for the high volatility of macroeconomic indicators. The article substantiates the conclusion that it is necessary to overcome the increasing antagonism between monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine and to strengthen their coordination.

The article examines the influence of the current stage of economy digitalization on the financial inclusion in Ukraine. The purpose is to assess the level of financial inclusion in the country, to determine the dominant influence of price and non-price barriers to access to financial services for the Ukrainian population when compared to other world countries and to define which part of the adult population is able to join the formal financial services system through the use of innovative channels and financial service systems. Based on the methodological approaches proposed by the World Bank and the G20 Financial Inclusion Indicators, the authors analyze the real traditional and digital access opportunities of the general public to financial services in Ukraine compared to other countries across the world. Particular emphasis is placed on overcoming existing non-price barriers that impede formal financial inclusion of the Ukrainian population. The research findings stress the need to adhere to the basic principles of digital financial inclusion in order to regulate activities of financial institutions and their agents in the digital provision of financial services, strengthen regulatory control over the use of innovative financial products and service systems, and protect the rights of consumers of financial services in Ukraine.

The paper is focused on the performance features of the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) in Ukraine as a small open economy. To assess the efficiency of monetary transmission channels, it is important to disclose their interaction, define criteria and tools for analyzing their impact on key macroeconomic parameters. The study deepens approaches to the analysis of the intensity of using monetary, credit, interest rate and exchange rate channels in Ukraine in 2005–2020 and detects violations in the functioning of the MTM. Using economic and statistical methods and regression models, the influence of the main channels of monetary transmission on real GDP growth rate and inflation in Ukraine was assessed. It was concluded that it is advisable to clarify the conditions for increasing the efficiency of MTM in Ukraine; also, the parameters of forecasting the intensification of its channels in the medium and long term are determined. The paper highlights measures to improve the formation of volume and structure of the monetary base and monetary aggregates, improve credit and investment climate, and increase the efficiency of monetary regulation. Moreover, interest rate and foreign exchange policies of the central bank to transmit impulses from the decisions of monetary authorities to market participants were substantiated.

Transforming the energy sector to provide universal access to reliable and modern energy services is an essential task for Ukraine, one of the Eastern Partnership countries with heavy energy dependence. It will help accelerate the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The paper is devoted to studying Ukraine’s readiness to generate sustainable energy compared to the EU and other Eastern Partnership countries and the development of an information base for monitoring the achievement of SDG7.
The data from the World Energy Council (WEC), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine are analyzed. Thus, the study proposed to expand the list of national monitoring indicators that more fully reflect the social, economic, and environmental results of SDG7 “Affordable and clean energy” in Ukraine. The development of an information monitoring base expands the opportunities to assess the availability, sustainability, and balance of national energy policy in green economic transformation. Furthermore, the indicators of energy intensity, carbon intensity, as well as access to sustainable energy for the population and business are emphasized. The findings are aimed to raise the level of awareness of government agencies and make balanced decisions to accelerate the achievement of SDG7 in Ukraine.

The extensive use of electronic and mobile money causes additional risks, which complicates the work of electronic money issuers (EMIs) and the functioning of payment systems. The paper aims to investigate operational risk management in the process of using electronic and mobile money. A classification of operational risk types was carried out and the forms of their manifestation in payment systems using electronic and mobile money were characterized. The list of key risk indicators has been compiled to assess the operational risk factors of payment systems using mobile and electronic money; a classification of costs (losses) as a result of the implementation of operational risk events is proposed, dividing them into direct and indirect. Based on the statistics of the International Monetary Fund and the National Bank of Ukraine, the use of electronic and mobile money in certain countries of the world is analyzed. The results on the intensity of electronic money use are presented, and the value of the electronic money multiplier in Ukraine is calculated. To improve operational sustainability of EMIs, a general scheme for organizing the operational risk management process in payment systems using electronic and mobile money is presented. Particular attention is paid to the regulatory and supervisory measures aimed at supporting the operational sustainability of EMIs and payment systems under their control. The issues discussed in this paper are relevant for the debate directed at the implementation of balanced approaches to operational risk management in the process of using electronic and mobile money in developing and emerging economies.

Considering climate change and growing ecological threats, achieving climate neutrality requires close attention from the state and the involvement of new tools, including those of the so-called green financing. This paper aims to determine the feasibility of combining the tasks of reducing the debt burden and expanding investments in environmental programs in Ukraine, using innovative tools for public finance management, such as debt-for-nature and debt-for-climate swaps. It substantiated the necessity of coordinating debt-for-environment investment programs within the framework of Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan and initiatives implemented in Ukraine with the active participation of the World Bank Group. The advantages of this approach are ensuring clear interaction with international financial institutions and expanding the practice of greening public management.
Based on statistical data for 2009–2022, the results demonstrate the growth of negative debt dynamics and characterize limited financing environmental restoration in Ukraine. Relying on international practices, the study conducted a comparative analysis to identify the most significant characteristics of the new debt green conversion instruments as well as the advantages and limitations of their use in Ukraine. The paper offers scenarios for implementing the concept of debt-for-nature exchange in the conditions of Ukraine. It shows the result of the formation of a new debt payment profile. These findings can raise state authorities’ awareness of making proper decisions regarding debt policy and public finance management.

Acknowledgment
The study presents the results of a study conducted as part of the scientific project “Formation of the foundations of nationally rooted stability and security of the economic development of Ukraine in the conditions of the hybrid “peace-war” system” (state registration number 0123U100965).

The article deals with evaluating the securities portfolios in the process of transition from the one-factor CAPM model to the Fama-French five-factor model (FF5F). It identifies the advantages of the latter and discusses the controversial issues regarding its use by portfolio investors in different countries, given the anomalies inherent in asset pricing. Besides, the peculiarities of the statistical stratification method used in the FF5F model to group stock portfolios are revealed, and attention is drawn to some of the debating points of the five-factor model. The proposals have been formulated, which offer broader avenues for taking advantage of the FF5F model and increase the validity of the portfolio analysis results. The article also gives recommendations on modifying the approaches to analyzing small-size portfolios versus big-size portfolios based on partial changes in RMW and CMA factors, threshold proportions, and the use of STARR for asymmetric portfolios. The study substantiates the use of these approaches in testing the Fama-French five-factor model with portfolios composed of blue chips.

Lending to long-term investment projects in fragile countries requires additional financial instruments to control the sustainability of project cash flows and to increase the borrower’s financial discipline in debt servicing. This paper analyzes the special aspects of using financial covenants as credit risk mitigation instruments in project financing in Ukraine. It also argues that regulatory requirements to maintain financial strength indicators at the appropriate level have an indirect impact on the change in project finance loan rates. The study primarily aims at developing approaches to defining a credit rate corridor for an investment project, depending on changes in the values of financial sustainability indicators. The implementation of the proposed approach allows increasing the validity of credit risk components for investors and optimizing capital value for borrowers.
As required by international practice, violation of covenant terms is the trigger for satisfying the creditors’ claims. According to the authors’ conclusions, the use of financial covenants as a tool for protecting the creditors’ interests should not be an instrument of unreasonable financial pressure on borrowers. The study reveals benefits and drawbacks of using financial covenants to mitigate credit risk and reduce the probability of a borrower default in the field of project financing in Ukraine.

The extensive use of financial technologies and innovations in the provision and utilization of financial products and services causes new risks that require constant attention. The article aims to improve innovation risk management methods to increase the operational stability of financial institutions in Ukraine. By generalizing international practice, the types of innovation risks are classified, and their impact on the activities of financial institutions and consumers is characterized. The attention is drawn to the control strengthening over the impact of operational and regulatory risks, based on important theoretical provisions contained in WBG, BIS, BCBS, and FSB documents. An organizational scheme for the interaction of a financial institution and an IT company is proposed to conclude “smart contracts” based on the use of a cloud service and blockchain technology. The authors propose additional methods of insurance protection and compensation for losses caused by the implementation of risks of using ICT and innovation based on creating the Collective Risk Insurance Fund of financial institutions; offer approaches to the calculation of variable and fixed parts of the contribution to the insurance fund for certain groups of financial institutions. It is concluded that to maintain the proper operational stability of financial institutions in Ukraine, it is necessary to introduce additional collective compensation methods for the risks of innovation and the strengthening of cyber threats.