Viktor Ivanov
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2 publications
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Special aspects of using hybrid financial tools for project risk management in Ukraine
Volodymyr Mishchenko , Svitlana Naumenkova , Viktor Ivanov , Ievgen Tishchenko doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.15(2).2018.23Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 15, 2018 Issue #2 pp. 257-266
Views: 1682 Downloads: 476 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe relevance of the article is due to the need of using non-traditional tools for capital raising and hedging financial risks in Ukrainian conditions that allow investors to protect themselves against possible losses during the entire life cycle of the investment project. The study is based on the National Bank of Ukraine statistical data, data of Ukrainian commercial banks, as well as on the authors’ calculations based on empirical and economic-statistical methods. According to international practices, hybrid financial instruments were classified and the special aspects of their use in Ukraine were studied to manage the risks of project financing. Specific features of using the structured bonds for financing investment projects are determined based on the synthetic securitization scheme. The experience of Ukrainian banks was analyzed and the necessity to use financial instruments such as guarantees and letters of credit in risk management of project financing was substantiated. It has been established that forward contracts, currency swaps and over-the-counter currency options are the most acceptable instruments for hedging foreign exchange risks of project financing. Further studies of the problem should include the need for legislative regulation of using hybrid financial instruments, as well as methodological and regulatory support for the risk management of project financing at all stages of the investment project implementation.
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Inflation and economic growth: the search for a compromise for the Central Bank's monetary policy
Volodymyr Mishchenko , Svitlana Naumenkova , Svitlana Mishchenko , Viktor Ivanov doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.13(2).2018.13Banks and Bank Systems Volume 13, 2018 Issue #2 pp. 153-163
Views: 2406 Downloads: 699 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe article analyzes the influence of inflation on economic growth and substantiates the main directions of increasing the effectiveness of the central bank's anti-inflation policy.
In order to determine the limit of inflation, the excess of which has a negative impact on the economic growth, the relationship is analyzed between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate on the basis of IMF statistics using the example of 158 countries. It was determined that in 2010–2017, in the global economy, the 6.0% inflation was the marginal value of the inflation rate, beyond which the economic growth rate declined or slowed down.
Given the inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rates as well as empirical calculations for the period 1996–2017, the threshold for inflation rate for Ukraine at the level of 4.51% was determined based on empirical calculations for the 1996–2017 period. The results indicate that the National Bank of Ukraine set the inflation target above the level of the calculated threshold inflation.
It has also been established that the link between the rates of nominal GDP growth, as opposed to real GDP, and the inflation rate, is more direct and more tight. It is substantiated that to analyze such dependence it is better to use GDP deflator instead of CPI. The results indicate that deflation constrains economic growth much less than inflation.
In order to increase the effectiveness of the central bank’s pro-cyclical monetary policy aimed at supporting economic growth, the relationship between the rates of real GDP growth and the indicator characterizing the gap between the growth rates of M3 and inflation, which actually reflects the real money supply dynamics, is determined. The results obtained allowed to conclude that in 2009 and 2014-2017, the artificial “squeezing” of the money supply took place in Ukraine, resulting in a decrease in the level of the economy monetization by 22.0% in 2017 compared to 2013.
It has been proved that in order to minimize the negative impact of inflationary processes on economic growth, the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine should be aimed at eliminating the artificial squeezing of the money supply through a reasonable increase in the economy monetization and the implementation of an effective monetary policy. -
Growing discoordination between monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine
Svitlana Mishchenko , Svitlana Naumenkova , Volodymyr Mishchenko , Viktor Ivanov , Roman Lysenko doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.14(2).2019.04Banks and Bank Systems Volume 14, 2019 Issue #2 pp. 40-49
Views: 1706 Downloads: 431 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe slowdown in economic development caused by the reduction in the efficiency of the functioning of state institutions determined the focus of the governments of most countries of the world on achieving sustainable economic growth, as well as ensuring macroeconomic and macrofinancial stability. A major issue that is dealt with is the weakening of the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine. It can be assumed that one of the reasons hindering economic growth is growing discoordination between monetary and fiscal policies. The purpose of this study is to assess the nature of monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine in 2000–2017 and justify the need for coordination between them to stimulate economic growth. For the quantitative assessment of the influence of monetary and fiscal factors on GDP, the models of autoregression with distributed lags – ARDL are used. The analysis makes it possible to distinguish and characterize three stages of combining the rigid and stimulating monetary and fiscal policy in Ukraine in 2000–2017. The article examines the influence of the dynamics of the monetary aggregate M3, the inflation rate and the weighted average base interest rate on the growth rates of real GDP in Ukraine, the impact of using the “monetary clamp” effect on the increase in the NBU’s interest rate, and the direct effect of monetary factors on the fiscal policy. The authors conclude that the inconsistency of monetary and fiscal policies is one of the reasons for the high volatility of macroeconomic indicators. The article substantiates the conclusion that it is necessary to overcome the increasing antagonism between monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine and to strengthen their coordination.
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Assessment and mitigation of credit risks in project financing
Svitlana Naumenkova , Ievgen Tishchenko , Svitlana Mishchenko , Volodymyr Mishchenko , Viktor Ivanov doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.15(1).2020.08Banks and Bank Systems Volume 15, 2020 Issue #1 pp. 72-84
Views: 1570 Downloads: 1188 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯLending to long-term investment projects in fragile countries requires additional financial instruments to control the sustainability of project cash flows and to increase the borrower’s financial discipline in debt servicing. This paper analyzes the special aspects of using financial covenants as credit risk mitigation instruments in project financing in Ukraine. It also argues that regulatory requirements to maintain financial strength indicators at the appropriate level have an indirect impact on the change in project finance loan rates. The study primarily aims at developing approaches to defining a credit rate corridor for an investment project, depending on changes in the values of financial sustainability indicators. The implementation of the proposed approach allows increasing the validity of credit risk components for investors and optimizing capital value for borrowers.
As required by international practice, violation of covenant terms is the trigger for satisfying the creditors’ claims. According to the authors’ conclusions, the use of financial covenants as a tool for protecting the creditors’ interests should not be an instrument of unreasonable financial pressure on borrowers. The study reveals benefits and drawbacks of using financial covenants to mitigate credit risk and reduce the probability of a borrower default in the field of project financing in Ukraine.
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