Role of government policy in food security: Economic and demographic challenges

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The state policy on food security should take into account economic (e.g., expansion of agricultural production following domestic food demand, exports, and imports) and demographic (e.g., adequacy of food reserves and production capacities of the agrosector to the pace of population growth, considering urbanization, migration, and a culture of rational consumption) challenges. Government policy should maintain the balance between the stability of the food system, economic development, and demographic changes. Therefore, this study aims to identify implicit (hidden) structural and functional relationships between these elements. The paper employs structural modeling using STATISTICA; the dataset consists of six food security, eight economic, and seven demographic indicators (using World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization databases for 2011–2021, targeting 39 countries with different levels of GDP per capita (depending on the availability of statistical data)). The results proved the direct impact of the economic variable on food security and the indirect effect of the demographic variable (demographic changes are the engine that triggers economic transformations that further affect food security). When demographic changes increase by one unit, economic development increases by 0.57 and stability of the food system by 0.454. When economic development increases by one unit, the stability of the food system increases by 0.473.

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    • Figure 1. Functional relationships between explicit and implicit variables
    • Figure 2. Functional relationships between explicit and implicit variables
    • Figure 3. Normal probability plot of residual distribution
    • Table 1. Definitions of the selected variables
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics for the input array
    • Table 3. Principal components analysis for three groups of indicators
    • Table 4. Correlation analysis for the array of input data by groups of indicators
    • Table 5. Structural modeling
    • Table 6. Basic summary statistics
    • Table A1. Grouping of countries by GDP per capita
    • Conceptualization
      Eldar Guliyev, Bayali Atashov, Aygun Guliyeva
    • Formal Analysis
      Eldar Guliyev, Bayali Atashov
    • Funding acquisition
      Eldar Guliyev, Bayali Atashov
    • Investigation
      Eldar Guliyev
    • Methodology
      Eldar Guliyev, Bayali Atashov, Aygun Guliyeva
    • Writing – review & editing
      Eldar Guliyev
    • Resources
      Bayali Atashov
    • Supervision
      Bayali Atashov
    • Validation
      Bayali Atashov, Aygun Guliyeva
    • Visualization
      Bayali Atashov, Aygun Guliyeva
    • Writing – original draft
      Bayali Atashov, Aygun Guliyeva
    • Data curation
      Aygun Guliyeva
    • Project administration
      Aygun Guliyeva
    • Software
      Aygun Guliyeva