Bayali Atashov

Green economic growth ensures the country’s wealth and population well-being with decreasing ecological damages. This strategy requires effective government policy to push economic agents to environmentally friendly behavior and significant financial resources to invest in technological modernization. The study aims to assess whether promotion of green economic growth in post-Soviet countries depends on direct and portfolio investment. The paper develops the index of green economic growth performance considering traditional economic growth, social, and environmental indicators. To determine the contribution of direct and portfolio investments in the promotion of green economic growth performance, regression equations (for the panel of countries as a whole and each country in particular) are developed. All models are supplemented with traditional economic growth control variables (GDP growth, inflation, gross fixed capital formation, trade). The information base is public data from the World Bank for the sample of 13 post-Soviet countries for 2000–2021. It was revealed that Estonia and Latvia have the highest level of green economic growth performance, while Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan have the lowest. The most effective country (Latvia) uses its green economic growth potential only for 62.33%. Modeling results do not confirm the significance of foreign and portfolio investment contributions in promoting green economic growth in most post-Soviet countries (portfolio investments boost green economic growth in Estonia and Moldova, while foreign direct investments contribute to green economic growth in Ukraine). These results might be explained by a lack of institutional capacity and government efficiency to ensure effective absorption of investments.

The state policy on food security should take into account economic (e.g., expansion of agricultural production following domestic food demand, exports, and imports) and demographic (e.g., adequacy of food reserves and production capacities of the agrosector to the pace of population growth, considering urbanization, migration, and a culture of rational consumption) challenges. Government policy should maintain the balance between the stability of the food system, economic development, and demographic changes. Therefore, this study aims to identify implicit (hidden) structural and functional relationships between these elements. The paper employs structural modeling using STATISTICA; the dataset consists of six food security, eight economic, and seven demographic indicators (using World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization databases for 2011–2021, targeting 39 countries with different levels of GDP per capita (depending on the availability of statistical data)). The results proved the direct impact of the economic variable on food security and the indirect effect of the demographic variable (demographic changes are the engine that triggers economic transformations that further affect food security). When demographic changes increase by one unit, economic development increases by 0.57 and stability of the food system by 0.454. When economic development increases by one unit, the stability of the food system increases by 0.473.

The government’s duty is to guarantee unimpeded access to food. Thus, relevant public policies, individual methods and tools, approaches, and strategic decisions are always the focus of attention of scientists, politicians, and government officials. Recognizing the critical importance of this imperative, this study aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis that sheds light on the scientific landscape of strategic public administration of food security. The paper conducts a bibliometric analysis of scientific publications (using VosViewer – from 1990 to February 2024 using Scopus and WoS scientometric databases); monographs/textbooks (using Google Books and Ngram Viewer – for 1990–2019); and trend analysis (using Google Trends – from 2004 to February 2024).
The analysis showed an exponential increase in the number of publications since 2000, with peaks in 2008 (financial crisis), 2019–2020 (COVID-19), and 2023 (threat to food security due to military conflicts). The clustering of scientific papers by content showed that the most significant (red) cluster unites research that links food security to agricultural development, sustainable development, climate change, and water supply. The spatial clustering of scientific publications revealed that scientific leadership belongs to scientists from the United States and China. The largest research funders are Chinese scientific institutions. It also reflected regional differences in research focus. In particular, Italy, Switzerland, and France emphasize agricultural innovation and quality standards, while China and Australia focus on increasing yields and food storage technologies.

An effective government agropolicy should be balanced: To reduce the state budget pressure, it is important to reduce public spending and encourage farmers to use agricultural loans. Reducing public spending should not lead to a shortage in the agricultural market. The paper aims to substantiate the directions of government agropolicy transformation based on the optimal ratio of public expenditures and loans in the agrosector and the dependence of agroproduction dynamics on state financing. The research base is data from 10 countries with different income levels (World Bank), presented in FAOSTAT for 2004–2021. For each country, the optimal (determined by the structural modeling method) and actual proportions between state financing and lending in the agrosector are compared, adjusted for the agroproduction index. The modeling showed that the share of public funds should increase in Germany, Israel, Italy, and the UK and decrease in Azerbaijan and Georgia; the current proportion is optimal in the USA, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Based on a panel regression model with fixed effects, the influence of the actual level of state agrofinancing on the FAO Production Indices of the main types of agroproducts was determined. It is the largest for crops, meat, and milk (a decrease in state funding by USD 1 million threatens to reduce the respective indices by 4.5, 3.47, and 3.79 points), medium for cereals and sugar crops (according to points 2.69 and 2.11), and the smallest for livestock and non-food products (by 1.53 and 0.001 points, respectively).