Eldar Guliyev

The state policy on food security should take into account economic (e.g., expansion of agricultural production following domestic food demand, exports, and imports) and demographic (e.g., adequacy of food reserves and production capacities of the agrosector to the pace of population growth, considering urbanization, migration, and a culture of rational consumption) challenges. Government policy should maintain the balance between the stability of the food system, economic development, and demographic changes. Therefore, this study aims to identify implicit (hidden) structural and functional relationships between these elements. The paper employs structural modeling using STATISTICA; the dataset consists of six food security, eight economic, and seven demographic indicators (using World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization databases for 2011–2021, targeting 39 countries with different levels of GDP per capita (depending on the availability of statistical data)). The results proved the direct impact of the economic variable on food security and the indirect effect of the demographic variable (demographic changes are the engine that triggers economic transformations that further affect food security). When demographic changes increase by one unit, economic development increases by 0.57 and stability of the food system by 0.454. When economic development increases by one unit, the stability of the food system increases by 0.473.