Margaryta Boiko

The paper aims at analyzing the impact of tourism on the economic growth in Ukraine considering its global significance and dynamic development. Tourism should be considered not as a separate phenomenon, but as a complex socio-economic-ecological system, i.e. the national tourism system (NTS). The study attempts to reveal the nature and determinants of the national tourism system impact on economic growth, and also empirically substantiates this in the Ukrainian context. Since the economic decisions require a huge amount of information and different models, a multivariate least square model has been proposed to determine the causal links between NTS and economic growth. The paper also presents the economic parameters such as Ukrainian GDP as a dependent variable, volume of domestic tourism consumption, income from international passenger carriage, international tourism expenditures in the country, the volume of services provided in temporary accommodation and catering establishments, and country’s income from NTS as independent variables. The paper is based on the 2000–2017 statistical data. It concludes that the increase of total NTS contribution to GDP is influenced by all considered factors except the international tourism expenditures in the country. A proposed econometric factor analysis model can be used as a tool to analyze and forecast the socio-economic NTS processes. The hypothesis of the NTS`s impact on economic growth is substantiated.

The rapid implementation of digital technologies in all spheres of society resulted from the evolution of consumer needs and IT breakthroughs, the acceleration of which was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns restricted physical contacts in customer service, highlighting the urgent need to digitize the business. The difficulties in predicting socio-economic conditions of the pandemic have led to new opportunities and mechanisms for the distribution of services and the formation of economic stress resilience of economic entities. The study aims to reveal the essence of the digital distribution of hospitality services in the conditions of uncertainty caused by COVID-19. The study of services digital distribution gives awareness of the possibilities of their implementation in the activities of hospitality entities, which were considered in the context of business security and development drivers during COVID-19. To achieve the study’s goal, a comprehensive approach to the essence of digital technologies, including those specific to hospitality entities, was used. The results of the analysis allowed stating the economic feasibility of direct sales channels. In addition, prerequisites for the collaboration of hospitality entities with digital channels were determined, recommendatory markers of optimal relations with distributors using digital innovations in business were formed. Further, business strategy development took into account the peculiarities of mixing the niches of competition of business entities in digital format and traditional competition.

Acknowledgment
The paper shows the author’s results within the frameworks of the study, performed in 2021−2023 at Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics at the request of Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine “Digital transformation of trade, economic and tourist systems in Ukraine” (state registration number 0121U112231) and “Forecasting the impact of the tourism system on the country’s economy” (state registration number 0122U001559).

Competition in the hotel industry makes it necessary to study innovative ways to preserve and increase customer base. Effective interaction with customers is evidence of hotels’ innovative activity determined by the active implementation of marketing concepts and the development of information technologies. Therefore, customer engagement involves digitalizing the “hotel-consumer” interaction process. This study aims to determine the components of digital customer engagement in the hotel industry using systematization, generalization, survey, and econometric models. The components of digital customer engagement include recognition, interest, communications, consumer experience, loyalty, and intentions of repatronage. Econometric models used the data of hotels in Kyiv (Ukraine) to prove the dependence of their income on the costs of digital consumer engagement. For financial indicators, the study surveyed hotel managers and stakeholders. The selected indicators have a significant influence on hotel income. In the case of a linear model (“Khreshchatyk” hotel), the parameters show how many units the effective feature will change when one-factor characteristic changes by one unit (assuming other factors are constant). In the case of power-law models (“Bratislava” and “Ukraine” hotels), the parameters are essentially elasticity coefficients that demonstrate the sensitivity of income changes to changes in factor characteristics. Accordingly, the coherence of implementation of all components in the digital engagement of hotel services’ consumers ensures an increase in service provision volume and hotel operations’ efficiency.

Acknowledgment
The paper shows the author’s results within the frameworks of the study, performed in 2021−2023 at Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics at the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, “Digital transformation of trade, economic and tourist systems in Ukraine” (state registration number 0121U112231) and “Forecasting the impact of the tourism system on the country’s economy” (state registration number 0122U001559).

Considering the war in Ukraine, it will be necessary to restore the tourism system. The use of foresight as a means of predicting the future will ensure the formation of conditions for its development. The study aims to assess the functioning of the tourism system in Ukraine under martial law and to develop foresight scenarios for its development. The analysis of the main economic indicators of tourism and hotel entities during the war period indicates potential opportunities (a stable or growing trend). The volume of tax revenues to the state budget in 2023 increased by 15.6%. 2023 hotels’ KPIs (RevPAR, ADR, Occupancy) for the main destinations compared to the same period in 2022 increased by 206.0%, 66.0%, and 44.0%, respectively. The study scans the horizon within which the factors affecting the development of the tourism system are determined and assesses the levels of their potential impact and probability of occurrence. The BANI method is used to identify possible α- and β-scenarios of development, and the matrix method is used to interpret the strategic development directions. Industry factors are combined into four groups: development trends, the state of the market, technologies, innovations, and professional competence of staff. Thus, α- (optimistic) and β- (pessimistic) development scenarios future states in the tourism development. A prognostic vision of the future in a situation of prospective uncertainty makes it possible to determine the factors for mitigating the effects of military actions in the post-war period. It stimulates finding alternatives for strengthening the cohesion of the tourism system.

Acknowledgment
The paper shows the authors’ results within the frameworks of the study, performed in 2021−2023 at Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics at the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine “Digital transformation of trade, economic and tourist systems in Ukraine” (state registration number 0121U112231) and “Forecasting the impact of the tourism system on the country’s economy” (state registration number 0122U001559).

Internal displacement to safer regions and migration abroad became a new phenomenon in Ukraine due to Russian military aggression. Accordingly, hotels began to provide services to a new category of consumers – internally displaced persons (in Ukraine) and migrants (abroad). In 2022, Poland received the most migrants from Ukraine due to its geographical position and significant economic ties. This study aims to identify changes in hotel activities in Ukraine and Poland caused by internal and external migration. The results are based on Computer Assisted Web Interviewing (CAWI) conducted in April-July 2023, to which 300 hotels in Ukraine and Poland were invited. Answers were received from 93 Ukrainian and 94 Polish hotels. The majority (66% in Ukraine and 62% in Poland) have a star rating of 2-3*, with an average capacity of 45 rooms in Poland and 49 in Ukraine. According to hotel managers, the level of occupancy of hotels increased on average – in Ukraine by 6% and in Poland by 13%. The specific weight of migrants in hotels in Poland was 23% of all customers; in Ukraine, it was 12%. Hotels in both countries began to introduce new services, attract different sources of cost coverage (however, Polish hotels used wider opportunities), and attract migrants to employment (34% in Poland and 7.5% in Ukraine), contributing to additional occupancy rates and financial stability. Changes in hotel operations caused by migration processes as a result of the war reflect their adaptability and economic sustainability.

Acknowledgment
The paper shows the results of the study performed in 2021−2023 at State University of Trade and Economics at the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine “Forecasting the impact of the tourism system on the country’s economy” (state registration number 0122U001559).
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Kirkland Research Program, the Leaders of Change Foundation, the Polish American Freedom Foundation, Polish Chamber of Commerce for Hotel Industry, and to those who helped to disseminate information about the survey, as well as to the Polish hotels and all those who expressed interest in the results.