Foresight (prevision) of development of the tourist system in Ukraine
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(4).2023.52
-
Article InfoVolume 21 2023, Issue #4, pp. 696-712
- Cited by
- 318 Views
-
75 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Considering the war in Ukraine, it will be necessary to restore the tourism system. The use of foresight as a means of predicting the future will ensure the formation of conditions for its development. The study aims to assess the functioning of the tourism system in Ukraine under martial law and to develop foresight scenarios for its development. The analysis of the main economic indicators of tourism and hotel entities during the war period indicates potential opportunities (a stable or growing trend). The volume of tax revenues to the state budget in 2023 increased by 15.6%. 2023 hotels’ KPIs (RevPAR, ADR, Occupancy) for the main destinations compared to the same period in 2022 increased by 206.0%, 66.0%, and 44.0%, respectively. The study scans the horizon within which the factors affecting the development of the tourism system are determined and assesses the levels of their potential impact and probability of occurrence. The BANI method is used to identify possible α- and β-scenarios of development, and the matrix method is used to interpret the strategic development directions. Industry factors are combined into four groups: development trends, the state of the market, technologies, innovations, and professional competence of staff. Thus, α- (optimistic) and β- (pessimistic) development scenarios future states in the tourism development. A prognostic vision of the future in a situation of prospective uncertainty makes it possible to determine the factors for mitigating the effects of military actions in the post-war period. It stimulates finding alternatives for strengthening the cohesion of the tourism system.
Acknowledgment
The paper shows the authors’ results within the frameworks of the study, performed in 2021−2023 at Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics at the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine “Digital transformation of trade, economic and tourist systems in Ukraine” (state registration number 0121U112231) and “Forecasting the impact of the tourism system on the country’s economy” (state registration number 0122U001559).
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)L80, С53, М20, Z32
-
References37
-
Tables3
-
Figures6
-
- Figure 1. Dynamics of tax revenues to the state budget of Ukraine from the entities of the tourism system (for 9 months of 2021–2023), thousand UAH
- Figure 2. Dynamics of the number of tax payers-subjects of the tourism system of Ukraine (for 9 months of 2021–2023), persons
- Figure 3. The structure of tax payments by entities of the tourism system of Ukraine (for 9 months of 2023), %
- Figure 4. Dynamics of investments in the field of hospitality business of Ukraine, 2010–2022 (million UAH)
- Figure 5. Dynamics of economic indicators of accommodation facilities (hotels) in the main destinations of Ukraine, 2021 – first half of 2023
- Figure 6. Dynamics of the RevPAR indicator for the main destinations of Ukraine in the period June-August 2022–2023
-
- Table 1. Scanning the horizons for the development of the tourism system in Ukraine on a global scale
- Table 2. Industry factors for the development of the tourism system in Ukraine
- Table 3. Foresight scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian tourism system based on the BANI concept
-
- Aguirre-Bastos, C., & Weber, M. K. (2018). Foresight for shaping national innovation systems in developing economies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 128, 186-196.
- Awedyk, M., & Niezgoda, A. (2016). New opportunities for future tourism after 25 years of political and socioeconomic transformation – Foresight in Poland’s tourism planning. Journal of Tourism Futures, 2(2), 137-154.
- Boiko, M., Bosovska, M., Vedmid, N., Melnychenko, S., & Stopchenko, Y. (2022). Digitalization: Implementation in the tourism business of Ukraine. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 20(4), 24-41.
- Bovsh, L., Okhrimenko, A., Boiko, M., & Gupta, S. K. (2021). Tourist tax administration in the fiscal target system for hospitality businesses. Public and Municipal Finance, 10(1), 1-11.
- Cambridge Dictionary. (n.d.). Foresight. In Cambridge Dictionary.
- Cascio, J. (2020). A framework for understanding a turbulent world. BANI: Facing the age of chaos.
- Castillo-Camarena, N., & López-Ortega, E. (2021). Technological foresight as support for the planning of research and development centers: The case of EI-UNAM. Foresight, 23(4), 457-476.
- Conway, M. (2015). Foresight: An introduction. A thinking futures reference guide. Melbourne, Australia: Thinking Futures.
- HotelMatrix. (2023). Hotel Market Analytics.
- Duginets, G. (2020). Global imperatives for development of international production networks: Case of Ukraine. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 18(1), 57-69.
- European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, & Popper, R. (2009). Mapping foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future. Brussels: European Commission. European Commission.
- Fernández-Güell, J. M., & Collado, M. (2014). Foresight in designing sun-beach destinations. Tourism Management, 41, 83-95.
- Freeman C. (1982). The economics of industrial innovation. The MIT Press.
- Gokhberg, L. (2013). Indicators for science, technology and innovation on the crossroad to foresight. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Eds.), Science, technology and innovation policy for the future (pp. 257-288). Springer.
- Gorina, G., Bocharova, Y., Kozhukhova, T., Ivanova, N., & Bohatyryova, G. (2022). The impact of covid-19 on international trade in tourism services in Europe. GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites, 43(3), 1091-1098.
- Kováříková, L., Grosová, S., & Baran, D. (2017). Critical factors impacting the adoption of foresight by companies. Foresight, 19(6), 541-558.
- Kryvtsova, M. (2020). Vykorystannia forsait-tekhnolohii u stratehichnomu prohnozuvanni rozvytku liudskoho potentsialu rehionu [The use of foresight technology in the strategic forecasting of the development of the human potential of the region]. Visnyk Sotsialno-Ekonomichnykh Doslidzhen – Herald of Socio-Economic Research, 2(73). (In Ukrainian).
- Makian, S., & Nematpour, M. (2021). 7 Foresight thinking and organizational learning: Scenario planning as a DMO crisis management tool. In Z. Ghaderi & A. Paraskevas (Eds.), Organizational Learning in Tourism and Hospitality Crisis Management (pp. 107-118). Berlin, Boston: De Gruyter.
- Martin, B. (1993). Research foresight and the exploitation of science base. London: HSMO.
- Mazaraki, A., Boiko, M., Bosovska, M., Okhrimenko, A., & Antoniuk, K. (2022). The rating of Ukraine’s regional tourist system according to their investment potential Problems and Perspectives in Management, 20(3), 43-61.
- Mazaraki, A., Boiko, M., Okhrimenko, A., Melnychenko, S., & Zubko, T. (2019). The impact of the national tourism system on the economic growth in Ukraine. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 17(4), 93-103.
- Melnychenko, S., Boiko, M., Okhrimenko, A., Bosovska, M., & Mazaraki, N. (2020). Foresight technologies of economic systems: Evidence from the tourism sector of Ukraine. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 18(4), 303-318.
- Minfin. (2023, September 28). Priami inozemni investytsii (PII) v Ukrainu [Foreign direct investments (FDI) in Ukraine]. (In Ukrainian).
- Popper, R., Keenan, M., Miles, I., Butter, M., & Sainz, G. (2007). Global Foresight outlook 2007: Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world. EFMN.
- Prymak, T., Ivchenko, L., Pohuda, N., Levchenko, V., & Trynchuk, V. (2020). The peculiarities of establishing the charter air transportation: European experience in Ukraine. Innovative Marketing, 16(1), 43-56.
- Rutting, L., Vervoort, J., Mees H., & Driessen, P. (2022). Strengthening foresight for governance of social-ecological systems: An interdisciplinary perspective. Futures, 141, 102988.
- Sakellariou, E., & Vecchiato, R. (2022). Foresight, sensemaking, and new product development: Constructing meanings for the future. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 184, 121945.
- Saritas, O., Burmaoglu, S., & Ozdemir, D. (2022). The evolution of Foresight: What evidence is there in scientific publications? Futures, 137, 102916.
- Skrypnyschenko, M. (2021). Instytutsiino-orhanizatsiini osnovy provedennia forsait-doslidzhennia “Ekonomika Ukrainy – 2050” [Institutional and organizational foundations of the foresight study “Economy of Ukraine – 2050”]. Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine. (In Ukrainian).
- State Tourism Development Agency of Ukraine. (2023, November 10). Za 9 misiatsiv 2023 roku do derzhavnoho biudzhetu vid turystychnoi haluzi nadiishlo maizhe 1,5 mlrd hrn [In 9 months of 2023, the state budget received almost UAH 1.5 billion from the tourism industry]. Facebook. (In Ukrainian).
- Strategic Foresight of Ukraine. (n.d.). Spheres.
- Torres, L. A., & Pena Jr, M. A. G. (2021). Foresight as decision-making support within bounded rationality in individuals and organizations – Embrapa’s strategic intelligence system – Agropensa’s case. Foresight, 23(4), 477-495.
- Trunina, I., Zagirniak, D., Pryakhina, K., & Bezugla, T. (2020). Diagnostics of the enterprise personnel sustainability. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 18(2), 382-395.
- Ukrstat. (n.d.). Kapitalni investytsii za vydamy ekonomichnoi diialnosti (2010–2022) [Capital investments by types of economic activity for 2010–2021]. (In Ukrainian).
- Varum, A.C., Melo, C., Alvarenga, A., & Soeiro de Carvalho, P. (2011). Scenarios and possible futures for hospitality and tourism. Foresight, 13(1), 19-35.
- Zahorianska, O., Trunina, I., Sushchenko, O., & Druzhynina, V. (2020). Globalization impact on the world travel market development. SHS Web of Conferences, 73, 01029.
- Zhurovskyy, M. (2015). Proekt Forsait ekonomiky Ukrayiny: seredniostrokovyi (2015–2020 roky) i dovhostrokovyi (2020–2030 roky) chasovi horyzonty (versiia dlia obhovorennia) [Foresight of Ukraine Economy Project: Medium-Term (2015–2020) and Long-Term (2020–2030) Time Horizons (Discussion Version)]. International Science Council (ICSU); National Technical University of Ukraine “Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”; Institute of Applied Systems Analysis of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine; World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development, Kyiv, Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. (In Ukrainian).