Svitlana Chorna

In the conditions of functioning of economic relations, which arise between subjects of the financial system of Ukraine, the question of creating safe conditions for their activity is increasingly being raised. Attention is paid to the investigation of the state of financial security of the country as a component of economic security, in terms of its key elements, which allows attention to the most important indicators and to develop measures to prevent existing threats.
The purpose of the paper is to forecast the level of financial security of the country based on regression analysis of impacts factors. The object of the study is the financial system as a mechanism, which is aimed at the activities of financial security subjects of the country to ensure its proper level. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found that changing in the country’s banking security by 1% will decrease the overall financial security index by 0.04 points, while the non-banking market will grow by 0.07 and the monetary component will decrease by 0.51.
Based on the calculation of the arithmetic mean of absolute deviations of independent variables, the estimated value of Ukraine’s financial security level is calculated, which is 40.09% in 2018.
Proposals for improving the “Methodological Recommendations for Calculating the Level of Economic Security of Ukraine” will help to solve the problem of mathematical substantiation of the choice of indicators for assessing financial security, minimize risks, eliminate subjectivity and improve the efficiency and the quality of the country’s financial security assessment methodology.
The article deals with the issues of the financial component of economic security as the main element of ensuring sustainable financial development of the country.

Financial security of a country is an integral part of its economic security and the basis of national security. The paper aims to assess and forecast the level of Ukraine’s financial security using two methodological approaches (the existing one and the authors’ elaboration) to choose the best alternative. The first one is based on the Methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. The alternative one has been developed as a multiplicative model of non-linear convolution of relevant direct and indirect impact indicators, considering the opportunity and risk, which is based on a combination of a power function and the Harrington method. A database of input indicators was formed with further differentiation according to their impact on Ukraine’s financial security. The research results demonstrated that during 2013–2019 Ukraine’s financial security integrated index was cyclical and constantly changing. A comparison of the existing methodology and the developed model demonstrated a certain discrepancy between the obtained results. It was substantiated that the proposed multiplicative non-linear convolution model for assessing and forecasting the state’s financial security is more relevant, includes current indicators sorted by their direct and indirect impact, and adjusts them according to the risk of impact on overall security in the country.

Russia’s open aggression against Ukraine has resulted in significant changes across all sectors of the Ukrainian economy and its financial sphere, including financial security. The paper aims to identify the impact of the primary macroeconomic determinants, i.e., military defense spending, non-performing bank loans, exchange rate, foreign debt, and state (total) reserves, on the financial security of Ukraine under martial law. The canonical correlation analysis is employed to assess the strength of the relationship between the above macroeconomic indicators and the level of the state’s financial security. It was found that the reduction of the state’s financial security level in 2022 was 63.9%, explained exactly by the changes in the above macroeconomic determinants after the start of a full-scale invasion. The study determined the degree of influence of each indicator on Ukraine’s financial security level. An increase in the level of military defense spending, non-performing bank loans, hryvnia’s devaluation, and external debt growth had a direct negative impact on Ukraine’s financial security. At the same time, an upsurge in total reserves had an indirect negative impact (through the external debt growth). The research findings confirm the necessity for effective monitoring and management of the macroeconomic indicators to maintain both Ukraine’s financial security and macro-financial stability in order to ensure its’ sustainable economic development during the postwar recovery period.

Acknowledgment
This research is financially supported by the NATO SPS Program “Security of territorial communities: evidence from the Eastern European countries”.

The study aims to assess the state of Ukraine’s foreign economic security and the challenges associated with its ensuring. The integrated assessment methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine was employed, which is based on a quantitative analysis of indicators that reflect the state of foreign economic security. It involves the characteristics of each indicator in terms of stimulators or destimulators, their normalization, and consideration of weighting coefficients. In order to identify the long-term trends, the official national accounts statistics, data from the World Bank, and the Economic Development Observatory for the period 2004–2023 were employed; the assessment is based on ten indicators. The results demonstrate that the main factors affecting the foreign economic security index are global economic crises, domestic political changes, and a full-scale war with russia. At the same time, the growth of foreign economic security is recorded in the period of stabilization during the implementation of structural reforms: 2005–2008 – the period after the Orange Revolution, 2014–2016 – the period of growth after the Revolution of Dignity, 2021 – post-pandemic recovery. In 2022–2023, the security index declined to 31.5% and 35.7%, respectively, as a consequence of the outbreak of a full-scale russian-Ukrainian war. The findings also emphasize the need to develop domestic capacities to ensure the sustainability of foreign economic activity, as well as the importance of maintaining and planning national export infrastructure in the face of global challenges.

Acknowledgment
This article is published as an output of the project VEGA 1/0392/23: “Changes in the approach to the development of distribution management concepts of companies influenced by the impact of social and economic crises caused by the global pandemic and increased security risks” and funded by the EU NextGenerationEU through the Recovery and Resilience Plan for Slovakia under the project No.09103-03-V01-00042.
This study was financially supported by the NATO SPS Program “Security of territorial communities: evidence from the Eastern European countries”.
In addition, this article is published as an output of the project “Economic bases for managing Ukraine’s debt security during martial law” (No. 0121U112685).