Assessing the foreign economic security of Ukraine

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The study aims to assess the state of Ukraine’s foreign economic security and the challenges associated with its ensuring. The integrated assessment methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine was employed, which is based on a quantitative analysis of indicators that reflect the state of foreign economic security. It involves the characteristics of each indicator in terms of stimulators or destimulators, their normalization, and consideration of weighting coefficients. In order to identify the long-term trends, the official national accounts statistics, data from the World Bank, and the Economic Development Observatory for the period 2004–2023 were employed; the assessment is based on ten indicators. The results demonstrate that the main factors affecting the foreign economic security index are global economic crises, domestic political changes, and a full-scale war with russia. At the same time, the growth of foreign economic security is recorded in the period of stabilization during the implementation of structural reforms: 2005–2008 – the period after the Orange Revolution, 2014–2016 – the period of growth after the Revolution of Dignity, 2021 – post-pandemic recovery. In 2022–2023, the security index declined to 31.5% and 35.7%, respectively, as a consequence of the outbreak of a full-scale russian-Ukrainian war. The findings also emphasize the need to develop domestic capacities to ensure the sustainability of foreign economic activity, as well as the importance of maintaining and planning national export infrastructure in the face of global challenges.

Acknowledgment
This article is published as an output of the project VEGA 1/0392/23: “Changes in the approach to the development of distribution management concepts of companies influenced by the impact of social and economic crises caused by the global pandemic and increased security risks” and funded by the EU NextGenerationEU through the Recovery and Resilience Plan for Slovakia under the project No.09103-03-V01-00042.
This study was financially supported by the NATO SPS Program “Security of territorial communities: evidence from the Eastern European countries”.
In addition, this article is published as an output of the project “Economic bases for managing Ukraine’s debt security during martial law” (No. 0121U112685).

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    • Figure 1. Ukraine’s foreign economic security index over the period 2004–2023
    • Table 1. Input indicators for assessing Ukraine’s foreign economic security, 2004–2023
    • Table A1. Characteristic values of indicators and weighting coefficients for assessing external economic security (considering the stimulating and de-stimulating effects on the integrated security indicator)
    • Formal Analysis
      Yuliia Yehorova, Svitlana Chorna, Iryna D’yakonova, Oksana Zamora
    • Investigation
      Yuliia Yehorova, Yuriy Petrushenko, Khrystyna Potapenko, Oksana Zamora
    • Project administration
      Yuliia Yehorova, Fedir Zhuravka
    • Supervision
      Yuliia Yehorova
    • Writing – original draft
      Yuliia Yehorova, Svitlana Chorna, Fedir Zhuravka
    • Writing – review & editing
      Yuliia Yehorova, Fedir Zhuravka, Iryna D’yakonova
    • Data curation
      Svitlana Chorna
    • Methodology
      Svitlana Chorna, Fedir Zhuravka, Iryna D’yakonova
    • Software
      Svitlana Chorna, Yuriy Petrushenko, Khrystyna Potapenko, Iryna D’yakonova, Oksana Zamora
    • Visualization
      Svitlana Chorna, Khrystyna Potapenko, Iryna D’yakonova, Oksana Zamora
    • Conceptualization
      Yuriy Petrushenko, Fedir Zhuravka
    • Funding acquisition
      Yuriy Petrushenko, Fedir Zhuravka, Khrystyna Potapenko
    • Resources
      Yuriy Petrushenko, Khrystyna Potapenko, Iryna D’yakonova, Oksana Zamora
    • Validation
      Yuriy Petrushenko, Fedir Zhuravka, Khrystyna Potapenko, Oksana Zamora