Forecasting the level of financial security of the country (on the example of Ukraine)

The generalization of scientific approaches to the assessment of the financial stability of the banking system has demonstrated the multivariance of views on structuring and listing of financial stability indicators and has made it possible to distinguish three main ones: on the basis of macroeconomic and macro financial indicators; on the basis of separate indicators; based on synthetic indicators. It is proved that the latter is most effective since the large number and variability of financial ratios used by different authors to assess the level of financial stability of banking systems does not allow for unambiguous results. A hierarchic structure of indicators of the stability of the banking system is proposed, which is characterized by the simultaneous existence of a certain number, not ordered in a heterarchic manner. In accordance with it, the integral index of financial stability of the banking system includes subindices: stability of the NBU, stability of system banks, banks with foreign capital, banks with private capital, financial vulnerability of the banking system. The expediency of accounting for the indicators of financial risk assessment: credit, liquidity risk, interest rate, investment risk, unstable resource base risk, which are characterized by such financial ratios as part of provisions for depreciation of loans in the loan portfolio, is justified in the composition of such a synthetic indicator of the financial stability of the banking system; the norm of instant liquidity; net interest margin; part of the provision for depreciation of securities in the securities portfolio; coefficient of instability of the resource base. Also, indicators for assessing the stability of the central bank were proposed: indicators of the adequacy of reserves; indicators of the effectiveness of monetary policy; indicators of the effectiveness of foreign exchange regulation; indicators of compliance of banking supervision with the main principles of efficiency. This approach will allow taking into account all the structural components of the banking system in the process of assessing financial stability, on the one hand, and in time to identify potential threats to the loss of stability, on the other.

Nowadays one of the relevant problems of economic development of Ukraine is the excessive increasing of the public debt that has a number of negative consequences for the financial system of the country. The article is devoted to the research of state’s debt sustainability concept. Special attention is paid to the development of an effective system of debt sustainability management. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical bases of the state’s debt sustainability, investigate scientific and methodological approaches to its management, analyze the public debt and debt sustainability of Ukraine. In order to achieve that goal, the following scientific methods were used: analysis and generalization, decomposition analysis, comparison and compilation. The authors analyzed the structure of the debt sustainability management system: objects, subjects, key principles, objectives, methods, instruments, etc. The list of key indicators of debt sustainability was substantiated and the authors compared their normative values in Ukraine and in world practice. Besides, the state and structure of public debt and the ratio of government debt to GDP were scrutinized. The obtained results proved the debt crisis deepening in Ukraine.

The resulting indexes for integration processes state development analysis were formed. The integral indexes illustrating integration state were calculated on the basis of member countries of BRICS and Ukraine. It provided the possibility to evaluate socioeconomic state of the countries from the point of view of international integration and create integration processes development scenarios. The strategic directions of integration processes development for Ukraine and member countries of BRICS were formed.