İlgar Seyfullayev

This study explores the relationship between bank credits, exchange rate and non-oil GDP in Azerbaijan, utilizing FMOLS, CCR and DOLS co-integration methods to the data spanning from January 2005 to January 2019. The results from the different co-integration methods are consistent with each other and approve the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Estimation results reveal that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of bank credits and exchange rate on the non-oil GDP in the long run for the Azerbaijani case which are in line with the expectations and with the theoretical findings discussed in theoretical framework section. This finding also indicates that a 1% increase in credit and real exchange rate increases non-oil GDP by 0.51% and 0.56%, respectively. The results of this paper are useful for the policymakers and promote the economic literature for further researches in the case of oil-rich countries.

A review of modern economic literature shows the lack of consensus on the relationship between the trade openness policy and the economic growth of countries. There is also an opinion that the policy of openness in emerging and resource-rich countries presents more opportunities for growth and development. Is this true, and under what conditions does openness lead to growth? Exploring the nature of trade openness and economic growth relationship in resource-rich emerging countries is the purpose of this paper. Therefore, the economy of Azerbaijan, rich in hydrocarbon resources, has been chosen as the object of this study. Next, the VAR model using ADF tests and Johansen’s cointegration was chosen to analyze and evaluate the causal nature of the relationship between openness and growth. Trade openness ratio and GDP per capita growth are model variables. The study covers annual data from 1995 to 2020. It was found that there are no cointegration relationships between variables in the long run. However, there is a unidirectional causal relationship from openness to growth in the short run, and the effect of growth to openness is not statistically significant. The results show that Azerbaijan receives economic benefits from openness by selling oil to the world market. Yet, the short-run nature of such benefits and the lack of feedback from growth to openness suggest specific problems in the diversification and quality of the country’s exports.

In the modern world, many developing countries take protective measures to develop domestic industries and diversify their economies to ensure economic sustainability. This issue is a priority, especially in those countries where economic development is provided mainly through the export of natural resources. This article aims to assess the impact of protectionist measures on the development of non-resource sectors of the economy. The object of the study is the non-oil sector of the Azerbaijani economy, where oil revenues account for over 80% of the country’s total exports. The study covers the 2005–2019 years. Granger Causality test in the VAR environment was used to identify and assess the causal relationship between protectionist measures and the non-oil sector development. It was revealed that such indicators as “customs revenues” and “exchange rate” do not increase non-oil GDP. The study results suggest that increasing the effectiveness of protectionism (in terms of economic growth) requires more reasonable and consistent regulatory measures. Targeting priority sectors and establishing monitoring mechanisms on the results of protectionist measures is also a priority for assessing their feasibility.

This study aims to assess the positive impact of infrastructure investments on the dynamics of economic growth. The sample includes ten countries (Azerbaijan, Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Mexico, Moldova, Serbia, and Turkey) for 2011–2020 that meet the following criteria:

• belong to upper-middle-income economies (according to the World Bank Atlas method);
• the OECD statistical database contains data on investment volumes in infrastructure development of road, railway transport, inland waterways, sea, and airports (by all financing sources). The primary focus was put on the analysis of this issue in Azerbaijan.

GDP per capita growth was selected as the resulting parameter; the main dependent variable was infrastructure investment volumes (total inland and infrastructure road, rail, and air investment), and additional dependent variables were a foreign direct investment (net inflows) and gross domestic investment. Shapiro-Wilk test (for checking normal data), Spearman and Pearson methods (for correlation estimation), Granger test (for detecting causal relationships), and Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation (for influence formalization) were used. As a result, the following parameters exert the greatest influence on economic growth level: value of gross domestic investment (its growth by 1% causes GDP per capita growth to increase by 0.54% without a time lag); value of infrastructure investment inland (total) (by 1.51% with a three-year lag); value of infrastructure road investment (by 0.41% with a three-year lag). These results can help future research and decision-making at different management levels to strengthen economic growth through infrastructure investment.

Most research on financial development and non-resource economic growth presents a wide range and, in some cases, even conflicting results. Evidence from emerging and resource-rich countries may enrich the scientific discourse with new empirical evidence. Therefore, the study aims to assess the mutual impact of financial development and non-resource economic growth in Azerbaijan. The growth rate of real non-oil gross domestic product (GDP), the share of loans in non-oil GDP, and the share of the broad money in GDP were taken as variables for the model. Monthly variable data from 2005–2022 were processed using the unrestricted vector autoregression model. The study’s results did not provide evidence for long-run causality between the finance sector and non-oil growth. But there are short-run and unidirectional causal relationships – from loans to non-oil growth and from broad money to loans. The results also showed that the increase in loans does not support broad money growth. Policymakers are encouraged to increase incentives for lending to the non-oil sector. Supporting money supply growth through increased deposits and non-cash money could also positively impact non-oil growth through loan channels. The development of the securities market could also open up additional financing opportunities for entrepreneurs in the non-oil sector.

Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments are expressed to all the scientists whose works have become a theoretical and methodological foundation for the study. It is also necessary to note the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which provides open access to the use of an extensive information base.