Financial development and non-resource economic growth: Empirical evidence from Azerbaijan

  • Received April 11, 2023;
    Accepted October 5, 2023;
    Published November 1, 2023
  • Author(s)
  • DOI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(4).2023.20
  • Article Info
    Volume 21 2023, Issue #4, pp. 253-263
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Most research on financial development and non-resource economic growth presents a wide range and, in some cases, even conflicting results. Evidence from emerging and resource-rich countries may enrich the scientific discourse with new empirical evidence. Therefore, the study aims to assess the mutual impact of financial development and non-resource economic growth in Azerbaijan. The growth rate of real non-oil gross domestic product (GDP), the share of loans in non-oil GDP, and the share of the broad money in GDP were taken as variables for the model. Monthly variable data from 2005–2022 were processed using the unrestricted vector autoregression model. The study’s results did not provide evidence for long-run causality between the finance sector and non-oil growth. But there are short-run and unidirectional causal relationships – from loans to non-oil growth and from broad money to loans. The results also showed that the increase in loans does not support broad money growth. Policymakers are encouraged to increase incentives for lending to the non-oil sector. Supporting money supply growth through increased deposits and non-cash money could also positively impact non-oil growth through loan channels. The development of the securities market could also open up additional financing opportunities for entrepreneurs in the non-oil sector.

Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments are expressed to all the scientists whose works have become a theoretical and methodological foundation for the study. It is also necessary to note the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which provides open access to the use of an extensive information base.

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    • Figure 1. Quarterly export of Azerbaijan (in million US dollars)
    • Figure 2. Quarterly import of Azerbaijan (in million US dollars)
    • Figure 3. Quarterly non-oil export and import of Azerbaijan (in million US dollars)
    • Table 1. Variables of the model
    • Table 2. ADF unit root test results
    • Table 3. Lag selection
    • Table 4. Johansen cointegration test results
    • Table 5. Wald tests results
    • Table 6. LM tests results
    • Conceptualization
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Data curation
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Formal Analysis
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Funding acquisition
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Investigation
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Methodology
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Project administration
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Resources
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Software
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Supervision
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Validation
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Visualization
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Writing – original draft
      İlgar Seyfullayev
    • Writing – review & editing
      İlgar Seyfullayev