Shahriyar Mukhtarov

The main purpose of this study is to make an analysis to understand whether the exchange rate channel is effective in Azerbaijan. In this framework, quarterly data between 2001:01 and 2017:02 is examined in this study. Furthermore, VAR method is taken into the consideration in the analysis process. The findings show that exchange rate channel is very important for Azerbaijani economy. In other words, the exchange rate channel is working on the total output and price axis. Hence, it is recommended that necessary actions should be taken by a central bank regarding the effective usage of exchange rate channel to contribute to industrial production and employment.

This study explores the relationship between bank credits, exchange rate and non-oil GDP in Azerbaijan, utilizing FMOLS, CCR and DOLS co-integration methods to the data spanning from January 2005 to January 2019. The results from the different co-integration methods are consistent with each other and approve the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Estimation results reveal that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of bank credits and exchange rate on the non-oil GDP in the long run for the Azerbaijani case which are in line with the expectations and with the theoretical findings discussed in theoretical framework section. This finding also indicates that a 1% increase in credit and real exchange rate increases non-oil GDP by 0.51% and 0.56%, respectively. The results of this paper are useful for the policymakers and promote the economic literature for further researches in the case of oil-rich countries.