Evaluating crypto regulation stringency and its impact on digital asset market adoption

The paper determines that the need in financial monitoring of Ukrainian companies of the port sector is caused by financial consequences related to the need to protect the environment, the existence of a dominant part of payments in foreign currency (foreign exchange risk associated with currency fluctuations), the possibility of cash outflows into the shadow sector of the economy and the possibility to use transport for smuggling. In addition, in the recent years there is a tendency of diminished financial stability of the seaports of Ukraine, which is a signal to determine the factors that have an impact on this situation, the consequences of risky operations and the optimal structure of sources for the formation of assets. An important aspect of financial monitoring is the necessity to identify the data about the objecton the basis of insignificant and relevant information, which makes it possible to avoid non-essential features and parameters and to speed up the decision making process at the lowest cost of expenditures and time. The study offers a methodical approach to financial monitoring of the port industry companies on the basis of the risk-based approach that takes into account the conditions for the functioning of port companies and their business characteristics, making it possible to implement the appropriate measures to prevent and avoid risky financial transactions and, consequently, to increase/preserve the competitiveness of the port sector companies. Regarding the need in further studies of the practical realization of financial monitoring of the port sector companies, there is a choice and substantiation of aggregate indicators of the financial monitoring system, their listing with a view to specific features, types and scale of activities.

The high probability of risk transfer from banks to their counterparties in the field of non-state pension provision (pension account owners, non-state pension funds, insurance companies, asset management companies, etc.) determines the relevance of this study. The paper aims to develop a toolkit for identifying the compliance risk volatility for pension custodian banks based on causal modeling.
This toolkit contributes to: 1) tentative cognitive mapping of the causal relationship between the compliance risks of pension custodian banks in the field of financial monitoring and financial and reputational risks to assess their acceptability by stakeholders in non-state pension programs, and 2) impulse modeling.
The created toolkit is based on the performance data provided by Ukrainian banks, as well as on the reports of the National Bank of Ukraine. Apparently, an increase in penalty rates by 0.1% would reduce the compliance risks for banks by 0.03%, and the number of violations in financial monitoring (specifically the improper assessment/reassessment of customer risks) by 0.01%. In turn, the compliance risk volatility inherent in custodian banks affects the variability of their reputational and financial risks. Thus, reducing the compliance risks by 0.1% would improve the reputation of banks and increase their regulatory capital by 0.01%.
The study findings substantiate the use of the created toolkit to supplement the risk profile components for pension custodian banks, thereby demonstrating the potential volatility of their compliance risks and their consequences for banks and individual groups of their stakeholders.

Acknowledgment
The work is prepared and financed within the framework of the state budget research work No. 45/20202021 “Formation of a risk-oriented system of accumulative pension provision” (DR No. 0120U101508).

The effectiveness of anti-money laundering systems is vital for national economic resilience, especially in transitional economies facing wartime challenges, such as Ukraine. This study aims to identify key managerial determinants of the effectiveness of Ukraine’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CFT) system and to develop evidence-based recommendations for improving its performance. Based on data from Ukrainian national institutions for the period 2011–2023, the study employs principal component analysis and multiple linear regression to evaluate 44 statistical indicators related to institutional workload, procedural efficiency, and inter-agency coordination. The findings reveal that a small set of indicators, including the volume of suspicious transaction reports from non-banking institutions, the number of dossiers compiled, and the backlog of unresolved judicial cases, explain over 70% of the system’s output variance. The final model exhibits high explanatory power (R² = 0.963), underscoring the importance of prioritizing high-impact operational metrics. The study concludes that targeted procedural reforms and enhanced coordination between institutions can significantly strengthen AML/CFT outcomes in fragile and reforming contexts.

Acknowledgment
This study was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (project No. 0123U101945 – National security of Ukraine through prevention of financial fraud and money laundering: war and post-war challenges).