Tetiana Tereshchenko

It is extremely important for the budget process to obtain accurate forecasts of potential tax revenues, especially in periods of disruption and crisis. The paper is devoted to the study of dynamics of tax revenues’ volumes in the budget of Ukraine and the forecast of their values during the crisis.
The dynamics of tax revenues in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine, studied by using randomized R|S-analysis, fractal and probabilistic analyses as well as entropy calculation based on the data on monthly tax revenues for the period 2011–2021, is anti-persistent, fractal-like and unpredictable based on parametric dependencies, simple and complex trends. The topological dimension of the lines of dynamics for tax revenues of all types of taxes is much higher than 1, and the Hirst index indicates either fractal similarity of dynamics or its chaos. The map of dissipation periods of tax revenues in Ukraine, determined on the basis of entropy calculation and periods of negative entropy production according to the dynamics of tax revenues, coincided with the periods of maximum reduction in their volumes. The most crisis periods in the formation of tax revenues are 2019–2020, for certain types of taxes – 2016–2020, but the dissipation of tax revenues is projected for 2021–2022.
The comparison of the level of fractal similarity in dynamics of the volume of tax revenues and peculiarities of the dynamics of entropy and entropy production, allowed to substantiate the division of taxes into nine types, of which five were found in Ukraine.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The article provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of the legal and operational regimes of digital asset circulation and their real impact on the financial market. To quantitatively measure the degree of state control, a composite Crypto Regulation Stringency Index (CRSI) was applied, constructed based on the OECD-JRC methodology. The index integrates 16 parameters across five fundamental areas (legal status, anti-money laundering, taxation, licensing, and consumer protection) for 61 countries (jurisdictions) as of 2025. The developed tool demonstrated high internal consistency and factor structure reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.955).
To determine the market consequences of legal regulation, the index values were compared with the Chainalysis 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index. The direct unconditional correlation between the stringency of rules and the scale of digital asset usage proved to be weak. However, a multivariate regression analysis conditional on a set of macroeconomic and institutional covariates (income level, digital infrastructure development, financial freedom, quality of the rule of law, and the specifics of the MiCA regulation) revealed a robust and statistically significant positive relationship. The reversal of the effect is consistent with a Simpson-type compositional effect: within groups of countries with comparable levels of economic development, clear and strict regulatory rules stimulate market activity. The findings extend the literature on comparative financial law and demonstrate that state control does not suppress the crypto-economy but rather serves as its stable institutional foundation.