National readiness for the transformation of digital banking from mobile applications to AI-driven services: A cross-country composite index

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The digital transformation of banking is entering a new phase, shifting from mobile applications toward AI-driven, personalized services, yet the readiness of national environments for this shift remains largely unexamined. The study aims to assess the cross-country readiness of banking systems for this shift by integrating demand-side digital financial inclusion with supply-side government AI readiness in a single composite measure. To this end, an AI-Banking Readiness Index (ABRI) is constructed by two-stage principal-component analysis from the World Bank Global Findex (2011–2024) and the Oxford Insights Government AI Readiness Index 2025 for 97 economies; it is complemented by k-means clustering, a demand–supply positioning matrix, and cross-sectional and two-way fixed-effects panel regressions. Three findings follow. First, at the index level, the two sides of readiness are only moderately aligned (r = 0.655), and 28 of the 97 economies lead on one side only – a mismatch that supply-only rankings conceal. Second, across countries, government AI readiness is positively associated with deeper household digital-finance adoption once income is controlled (β = 0.451, p = 0.017). Third, within countries over time, e-government capacity is related to account ownership in a pattern consistent with an infrastructure-mediated channel; this constitutes suggestive channel evidence rather than a formal mediation test. Practically, the index locates each economy’s binding constraint: supply-led economies need demand-side activation through connectivity, interoperable payments, and digital literacy, whereas demand-led economies need AI governance and supervisory capacity before personalized, AI-driven services can scale safely.

Acknowledgment
This article was prepared based on the results of a study funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine entitled “GovTech for Ukraine: A Digital, Secure, Transparent, and Equitable State in Times of War and Post-War Reconstruction” (registration number: 0126U000544)

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    • Figure 1. ABRI strategic positioning matrix (2024–2025, N = 97)
    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics (N = 97)
    • Table 2. ABRI construction and factor-adequacy diagnostics
    • Table 3. Cluster profiles and selected economies (k-means, k = 2)
    • Table 4. Cross-sectional determinants of demand-side digital maturity
    • Table 5. Panel fixed-effects estimates of account ownership
    • Table A1. Variables, definitions, and sources
    • Table B1. Analytical samples by stage of the analysis
    • Table B2. Economies in the ABRI sample (N = 97): income group, ABRI score, rank, cluster, and quadrant
    • Table C1. Pairwise Pearson correlations among the ABRI input indicators (N = 97)
    • Table C2. Pairwise Pearson correlations among the cross-sectional regression variables (N = 93)
    • Table D1. Robustness of the ABRI ranking to alternative construction choices (Spearman ρ with the baseline ranking, N = 97)
    • Conceptualization
      Sevinj Abbasova, Tetiana Vasylieva, Mehriban Aliyeva
    • Formal Analysis
      Sevinj Abbasova, Tetiana Vasylieva, Mehriban Aliyeva
    • Methodology
      Sevinj Abbasova, Tetiana Vasylieva, Mehriban Aliyeva
    • Project administration
      Sevinj Abbasova, Leyla Huseynova, Rauf Salayev
    • Supervision
      Sevinj Abbasova, Esmira Ahmadova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Sevinj Abbasova, Tetiana Vasylieva, Esmira Ahmadova
    • Resources
      Tetiana Vasylieva, Mehriban Aliyeva, Esmira Ahmadova
    • Validation
      Mehriban Aliyeva, Rauf Salayev
    • Writing – original draft
      Mehriban Aliyeva, Leyla Huseynova, Rauf Salayev
    • Data curation
      Leyla Huseynova, Esmira Ahmadova, Rauf Salayev
    • Funding acquisition
      Leyla Huseynova, Esmira Ahmadova, Rauf Salayev
    • Investigation
      Leyla Huseynova, Esmira Ahmadova, Rauf Salayev
    • Software
      Leyla Huseynova, Esmira Ahmadova, Rauf Salayev
    • Visualization
      Leyla Huseynova, Rauf Salayev