Monetary policy and SDG outcomes: Income-level heterogeneity

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
With five years remaining to the 2030 deadline of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the relationship between monetary policy and SDG progress remains largely unexplored. This paper aims to quantify the association between short-term policy rates and SDG 1, SDG 8, and SDG 10 achievement across high-income, upper-middle-income, and low- and lower-middle-income economies. The analysis draws on a panel of 129 economies over 2000–2023, combining SDSN SDR2025 goal scores, IMF interest-rate series, World Bank WDI controls, and WGI 2.0 indicators (2,563 country-year observations), estimated using two-way fixed-effects regressions with country-clustered standard errors and eight robustness blocks. First, higher policy rates show a modest and consistent positive association with SDG 8 across income groups (β ≈ +0.045, all p < 0.10), robust to two-period lags and a dynamic LSDV re-specification. Second, the pooled association with SDG 1 is null, but interaction estimates reveal significant income-group heterogeneity: within-HIC β = +0.412 (p = 0.006) and a significantly weaker UMC association (interaction β = −0.590, p = 0.002), with a negative but insignificant net UMC estimate (−0.178, p = 0.20). Third, the aggregate SDG Index is negatively associated with the policy rate only in the UMC sub-sample (β = −0.048, p = 0.027), and the SDG 8 association disappears when real or lending rates replace the policy rate – consistent with a signaling interpretation rather than an identified mechanism. Assessments of monetary policy in the SDG context should distinguish between goals with consistent associations and goals whose association varies significantly with income group.

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    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics, working sample (2000–2023; N = 2,563 country-years, 129 countries)
    • Table 2. Coefficient on the monetary-policy rate across specifications M1-M4 (two-way FE; CRV1 SE clustered by iso3)
    • Table 3. Subsample estimates by income group (specification M3; two-way FE; CRV1 SE)
    • Table 4. Interaction model: MP × income group (specification M3 + interactions; HIC = reference)
    • Table 5. Summary of robustness checks (selected specifications)
    • Table 6. Variance inflation factors for specification M4 (N = 2,065)
    • Table A1. Countries in the working panel (N = 129), by income group and region
    • Table B1. Pearson correlation matrix, working sample (pairwise)
    • Table C1. Variable definitions, units, and data sources for the working sample (N = 2,563)
    • Table D1. Full regression results – dependent variable: overall SDG Index score
    • Table D2. Full regression results – dependent variable: SDG 1 score (No Poverty)
    • Table D3. Full regression results – dependent variable: SDG 8 score (Decent Work and Economic Growth)
    • Table D4. Full regression results – dependent variable: SDG 10 score (Reduced Inequalities)
    • Conceptualization
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Data curation
      Muslum Mursalov
    • Funding acquisition
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Investigation
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Methodology
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Project administration
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Resources
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Software
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Supervision
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Validation
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Visualization
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Writing – original draft
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Writing – review & editing
      Muslum Mursalov, Milos Tumpach
    • Formal Analysis
      Milos Tumpach