Long memory investigation during demonetization in India

The industry of private equity and leveraged buyout has been, since its beginnings, subject to several chapters of bubbles and busts, the majority of whom are initiated under similar circumstances (excess of liquidity, junk debt and mimetic behavior).
The Islamic finance is a financial system that complies with the rules of the Sharia Law, and which naturally allows the achievements of purposes of Sharia, such as protection of property and capital, fair wealth distribution, reduction of uncertainty and speculation, to name a few.
From this perspective, this paper discusses the capacity of Islamic finance to help prevent some factors that trigger financial crises in the leveraged buyout market and to accomplish the intended purposes through this asset class.
In the first part of this paper, the authors try to break down some of these common factors that trigger or catalyze the economic booms of the leverage buyout industry, and propose a framework to visualize their effects through an agent-based Simulation program. The second part of the paper describes how Islamic economic principles constitute brakes to some distortions and excesses in the market, in such a way that the probability of occurrence of a boom decreases drastically. Finally, these Islamic features are added up to the simulation to provide a comprehensive benchmark.

The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of demonetization on Indian firm’s quarterly financial performance before and after demonetization period (March-December, 2017), and to find out if companies’ age helps to face financial disruption. Four variables, which are net sales, total income, net profit after tax, and earnings per share, were taken as proxies for analyzing the quarterly financial performance of 2,892 companies listed on Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), National Stock Exchange (NSE), and Calcutta Stock Exchange (CSE). Nonparametric test, particularly Wilcoxon Matched-Pairs Signed Rank Test and Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance, were applied in analyzing the data. Results reveal that there is a statistically significant difference between the financial performance before and after demonetization at 5% level of significance. It was also found that the decrease/increase in the financial performance of all the firms was affected by the demonetization process, irrespective of their ages. The findings could be useful for financial managers and financial consultants, as they would be able to focus on the issues that matter most at the time of financial disruption.

Economic growth should be supplemented by an efficient payment and settlement system. Many attempts have been made to improve the efficiency of payment and settlement system in India. Especially the effort has been in terms of promoting digital economy. But the stickiness to payments through currency notes by the people has had a moderating effect on these efforts. The policy shift of Government of India towards demonetization of higher denomination currency notes has given thrust to digital payments. The study hypothesizes that post demonetization, the payment and settlement system indicators would show moderate to high deviation from the volume and value that can be forecasted using the historical data. Using Automatic ARIMA Forecasting in EViews, the forecasted values for the indicators for a period from November 2016 to March 2018 were estimated based on the historical data of the indicators from April 2011 to October 2016. The forecasted values of the indicators are then compared with the actual values of the indicators to see if they differ significantly by using paired t-test. The study finds evidence to suggest that the policy of demonetization and resultant reduced supply of currency notes has provided impetus to the Indian public to move towards digital platforms, and the increased supply of currency notes thereafter has not led to complete reversal of this shift in this change in consumer preference. This leads to the conclusion that through effective policy shifts, consumer preferences can be altered, and the Indian economy could become a less cash economy.