Payments transition in India – consumer preferences and policy shifts
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.13(4).2018.02
-
Article InfoVolume 13 2018, Issue #4, pp. 17-30
- Cited by
- 1309 Views
-
269 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Economic growth should be supplemented by an efficient payment and settlement system. Many attempts have been made to improve the efficiency of payment and settlement system in India. Especially the effort has been in terms of promoting digital economy. But the stickiness to payments through currency notes by the people has had a moderating effect on these efforts. The policy shift of Government of India towards demonetization of higher denomination currency notes has given thrust to digital payments. The study hypothesizes that post demonetization, the payment and settlement system indicators would show moderate to high deviation from the volume and value that can be forecasted using the historical data. Using Automatic ARIMA Forecasting in EViews, the forecasted values for the indicators for a period from November 2016 to March 2018 were estimated based on the historical data of the indicators from April 2011 to October 2016. The forecasted values of the indicators are then compared with the actual values of the indicators to see if they differ significantly by using paired t-test. The study finds evidence to suggest that the policy of demonetization and resultant reduced supply of currency notes has provided impetus to the Indian public to move towards digital platforms, and the increased supply of currency notes thereafter has not led to complete reversal of this shift in this change in consumer preference. This leads to the conclusion that through effective policy shifts, consumer preferences can be altered, and the Indian economy could become a less cash economy.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)E41, E42, E44, E47
-
References26
-
Tables4
-
Figures3
-
- Figure 1. Payment system categories in India
- Figure 2. Trends in the value of transactions in the payment and settlement system indicators selected for the study
- Figure 3. Trends in the volume of transactions in the payment and settlement system indicators selected for the study
-
- Table 1. ARIMA (p, d, q) estimations and actual value of transactions (November 2016 to March 2018)
- Table 2. ARIMA (p, d, q) estimations and actual volume of transactions (November 2016 to March 2018)
- Table 3. Results of paired t-test for the difference between actual and forecasted value of transactions in the selected indicators
- Table 4. Results of paired t-test for the difference between actual and forecasted volume of transactions in the selected indicators
-
- Abad Peiro, J. L., Asokan, N., Steiner, M., & Waidner, M. (1998). Designing a generic payment service. IBM Systems Journal, 37(1), 72-88.
- Bhardwaj, S., & Kaushik, M. (2018). Unified Payment Interface – A Way Ahead for Demonetization in India. Smart Computing and Informatics. Proceedings of the First International Conference on SCI, 2, 273-280.
- Bhattacharya, K., & Singh, S. K. (2018). The Story of Currency in Circulation – Are We Back to Square One after Demonetisation. Economic & Political Weekly, 53(13), 89-99.
- Chandrasekhar, C. P., & Ghosh, J. (2018). The Financialization of Finance? Demonetization and the Dubious Push to Cashlessness in India. Development and Change, 49(2), 420-436.
- Dhamija, A., & Dhamija, D. (2017). Technological Advancements in Payments: From Cash to Digital through Unified Payments Interface (UPI). Strategic Human Capital Development and Management in Emerging Economies, 250-258.
- Dhananjay, B., & Chandra, S. B. (2015). The Electronic Banking Revolution in India. The Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, 20(2), 1-14.
- Dubbudu, R. (2017). How much Currency is in circulation now?
- HuffPost (2016). Here’s The Full Text Of Modi’s Speech On The Discontinuation Of ₹500 And ₹1,000 Bank Notes.
- Maji, P. (2017). Demonetisation keeps digital payments up; cashless transactions grow 13.5% in September. Business Today Money Today.
- Ministry of Finance (2018). Government of India Economic Survey 2017–2018.
- Nayak, G. (2018). Currency in circulation almost at pre-demonetisation levels. The Economic Times.
- Nithin, M., Jijin, P., & Baiju, P. (2018). Has Demonetisation Pushed Digitalisation in India? Some Counter Evidences. Journal of Business Thought, 9, 58-69.
- PTI. (2017). Digital transactions shoot up post demonetization. The Hndu Business Line.
- Reserve Bank of India. (2016). Reserve Bank of India Circular Dt. November 08, 2016: Withdrawal of Legal Tender Character of Existing Rs. 500/- and Rs. 1000/- Bank Notes.
- Reserve Bank of India. (2018a). Certificates of Authorization issued by the Reserve Bank of India under the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007 for Setting up and Operating Payment System in India. Reserve Bank of India Occational Publications.
- Reserve Bank of India. (2018b). Reserve Bank of India – Payment and Settlement Systems. Overview of Payment Systems in India.
- Reserve Bank of India. (2018c). DBIE-RBI: Database of Indian Economy. Reserve Bank of India.
- Roy, D., & Sahoo, A. (2016). Payment systems in India: Opportunities and challenges. Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, 21(2), 1-48.
- Sahu, G. P., & Singh, N. K. (2017). Paradigm Shift of Indian Cash-Based Economy to Cash-Less Economy: A Study on Allahabad City. Proceedings of the 16th IFIP WG 6.11 Conference on e-Business, e-Services, and e-Society, I3E 2017, Delhi, India, November 21-23, 2017. Springer, Cham, 453-461.
- Sharma, N. (2012). An empirical study of rural customer’s satisfaction from E-banking in India. The Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, 17(3), 1-21.
- Singh, B. P., Grover, P., & Kar, A. K. (2017). Quality in Mobile Payment Service in India. Digital Nations – Smart Cities, Innovation, and Sustainability: Proceedings of the 16th IFIP WG 6.11 Conference on e-Business, e-Services, and e-Society, I3E 2017, Delhi, India, November 21-23, 2017. Springer, Cham, 183-193.
- Singh, N., Srivastava, S., & Sinha, N. (2017). Consumer preference and satisfaction of M-wallets: a study on North Indian consumers. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 35(6), 944-965.
- Siu, N. Y.-M., & Mou, J. C.-W. (2005). Measuring Service Quality in Internet Banking: The Case of Hong Kong. Journal of International Consumer Marketing, 17(4), 99-116.
- Sivathanu, B. (2018). Adoption of digital payment systems in the era of demonetization in India: An empirical study. Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management.
- Waghmare, A. (2017). Threat to cashless economy? After demonetisation push, digital transactions recede. Hindustan Times.
- Wilson, J. (2017). Did Demonetisation Bring About a Digital Transaction Revolution? The Wire.