Nataliia Versal

The move to sustainable development and building a carbon-low economy needs funding. In this regard, a new direction in finance – green (sustainable) finance – has emerged. One of the green finance instruments is green bonds, first issued by supranational financial institutions. This paper aims to identify the features of green bond issues and implemented green projects by the World Bank (the WB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the EBRD). Data were obtained from databases and reports of the WB, the EBRD, and the Climate Bonds Initiative. Data analysis was provided using statistical methods, particularly descriptive and comparative statistics. A positive trend in the issue of green bonds in the volumes and timing of the WB and the EBRD was revealed, despite the shift in emphasis caused by COVID-19. Renewable energy, energy efficiency, and clean transportation remain the primary directions of the WB, and the EBRD green projects amounted to more than 60% of total projects funding. The geography of green projects financed through the WB and the EBRD green bonds indicates that green projects are receiving significant funding from countries facing environmental challenges and demonstrating intent to green transition (the WB – China and India, the EBRD – Turkey, Poland, and Egypt). Supranational financial institutions were the first to come to the forefront of sustainable development funding and are now spearheading the creation of new financial instruments aimed at financing both green and social projects, leading to the emergence of sustainability bonds.

Acknowledgment(s)
The authors would like to thank the participants of the 1st International Conference on Sustainable Development (SDL 2021) for providing the valuable remarks and a fruitful discussion. This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Accurate forecasting of consumer loan market behavior gives banks a huge potential to optimize their credit strategies by proactively adapting to external changes. This study aims to analyze and predict consumer loan demand, supply, and profitability in the Ukrainian banking sector. Using a systemic dynamic approach, the interplay of five key factors is considered: central bank policies, GDP fluctuations, changing competitive landscape driven by FinTech companies, investment in government bonds as an alternative to loan granting, and severity of credit risk management.
The developed dynamic model for the bank consumer loan market in Ukraine offers predictive capabilities enhancing decision-making and strategic planning in the banking sector and can be adapted in open small economies. Within the proposed systemic dynamic model, five scenarios were explored. Compared to the base scenario, a 4 p.p. increase in the key policy rate results in UAH 4.7 billion decrease in demand for bank consumer loans and a UAH 0.55 billion reduction in lending profitability based on the year’s results. Fall in GDP by 6 p.p. leads to a decrease in the supply of bank consumer loans by UAH 6.9 billion and a decrease in lending income by UAH 1.3 billion based on the year’s results. Scenario with the decline of FinTech portfolio by 20 p.p. quarterly leads to an increase in demand for bank consumer loans of UAH 8 billion. A 4 p.p. rise in government bond yields leads to a UAH 17 billion reduction in the supply of consumer loans in the same quarter.