Nataliia Prykaziuk

In the current conditions of the Ukrainian economy, which is characterized by crisis phenomena and frequent changes in legislation, the insurance organizations are facing a number of difficulties in maintaining their financial sustainability. Moreover, these processes take place under the increased requirements for solvency of insurers. However, a significant part of domestic insurance companies is financially unstable, which is conditioned not only by the lack of funds, but also by the low level of management. This situation hinders the further development of the insurance market in Ukraine and has a negative impact on all areas of the domestic financial system and prevents it from successful integration into the European financial field. In order to address this problem, it is necessary to distinguish the key groups of risks that affect the financial sustainability of insurance organizations, among which there are the following: insurance, strategic, market risk, risk of inefficient capital structure, risk of limiting the insurance company’s liquidity, tax risk, investment risk, operational risk, the risk of ineffective organizational structure of the enterprise, and information risk. It should be noted that under conditions of changing environment, the impact of these risks only increases, and therefore the task of minimizing the impact of these risks on the activities of insurance companies is highly important. Accordingly, the authors of the article proposed a four-stage strategy to manage the financial sustainability of the insurance company, the purpose of which is to identify the risks of limiting the insurer’s financial sustainability, their qualitative and quantitative assessment, as well as the development and implementation of appropriate measures to minimize and eliminate unacceptable consequences.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) create more than half of the added value, providing about two-thirds of employment in most countries. However, they need more liquidity, access to credit resources, and significant outstanding loans. This study aims to identify the impact of interest rates on outstanding loans of enterprises on their structure as a way to prevent bankruptcy. The correlation-regression analysis used OECD statistical data for 2008‒2019 sampling individual countries; it showed an ambiguous situation between the interest rate and the share of outstanding loans of SMEs in the overall structure of outstanding loans. The paper verified constructed regression equations and estimated their parameters. The regression equations for Belgium, the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Latvia are statistically reliable. Thus, in Belgium and the Czech Republic, a negative relationship was recorded (r = –0.822; D = 0.675; r = –0.9274; D = 0.794; F-criterion > Ft, respectively), and in Estonia and Latvia – a positive one (r = 0.876; D = 0.767; F-criterion > F•Ft; r = 0.800; D = 0.641; F-criterion > Ft , respectively). Australia, Italy, Slovakia, and France practically do not have a corresponding relationship. The regression equations make it possible to estimate the change in the level of interest rate on the share of outstanding loans of enterprises in the overall structure of outstanding loans, make predictions of the corresponding performance indicator, and develop measures of restoring the solvency of enterprises as an essential task of preventing their bankruptcy.

Accurate forecasting of consumer loan market behavior gives banks a huge potential to optimize their credit strategies by proactively adapting to external changes. This study aims to analyze and predict consumer loan demand, supply, and profitability in the Ukrainian banking sector. Using a systemic dynamic approach, the interplay of five key factors is considered: central bank policies, GDP fluctuations, changing competitive landscape driven by FinTech companies, investment in government bonds as an alternative to loan granting, and severity of credit risk management.
The developed dynamic model for the bank consumer loan market in Ukraine offers predictive capabilities enhancing decision-making and strategic planning in the banking sector and can be adapted in open small economies. Within the proposed systemic dynamic model, five scenarios were explored. Compared to the base scenario, a 4 p.p. increase in the key policy rate results in UAH 4.7 billion decrease in demand for bank consumer loans and a UAH 0.55 billion reduction in lending profitability based on the year’s results. Fall in GDP by 6 p.p. leads to a decrease in the supply of bank consumer loans by UAH 6.9 billion and a decrease in lending income by UAH 1.3 billion based on the year’s results. Scenario with the decline of FinTech portfolio by 20 p.p. quarterly leads to an increase in demand for bank consumer loans of UAH 8 billion. A 4 p.p. rise in government bond yields leads to a UAH 17 billion reduction in the supply of consumer loans in the same quarter.