Investment evaluation in renewable projects under uncertainty, using real options analysis: the case of wind power industry

The purpose of the current paper is to elaborate the model for assessing cumulative synergetic effect in M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) deals on the basis of a real options approach. The majority of papers on the synergetic effects of M&A deals typically focus on a particular type of synergy, while the current paper proposes a model that accounts for the cumulative simultaneous effect of different types of operating and financial synergies. The methodology of our research is loosely based on Datar-Mathews real option valuation model, which is flexible and intuitive for practitioners. Formulae for assessing eight types of synergy typically arising from M&A deals are developed. They are integrated into a single model to assess their cumulative effect on the M&A deal using a simulation modelling approach. The method was used ex post to find synergy values in two recent M&A deals in the pharmaceutical industry, and produced sound results. The proposed approach to value target companies could be used by firms before an M&A deal in the due diligence process. Using this tool a company can build a bidding strategy and define the maximum premium it can pay for the target.

VUСA is a chaotic and rapidly changing business environment that, based on the variability, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of the modern world, transforms the approach of banks to the analysis of financial stability. The aim of the paper is to improve tools for monitoring the impact of VUCA-world conditions on the financial stability of banks, namely a model for studying and analyzing the impact of the modern business space “VUCA” on the financial stability of the country's banks. To test the model, the method of constructing regression equations in multifactor regression analysis is used. For this study, data from some Eastern European countries (Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova) were used, and time series data were used for 10 years from 2010 to 2019.
Having considered the definition of “VUCA-world conditions”, the model of modern business space “VUCA” was developed when analyzing the activity of banks in the studied countries. Drivers, consequences, requirements and macroeconomic indicators of the countries’ activities in the VUСA-world conditions are determined. The VUCA-world conditions also consider the study of key macroeconomic indicators that allow building long-term relationships throughout the value chain. The analysis of the studied Eastern European countries showed that with the increase of factors of GDP growth, GNI per capita growth, research and development costs, foreign direct investment, and net inflow of 1%, the effective ratio of bank capital and assets also increases. The assessment, in contrast to the existing ones, makes it possible to consider the impact of the macroeconomic environment of banks on their financial stability.

Regularly changed destructive periods in organizational development mean that the lifecycle exists. A nature of its formation hides a number of important conceptual regularities. One aspect of these trends is relationship between distribution of uncertainty and risks in lifecycle models, underlying motives of their formation and determining participation in development of organizational immunity. A closer definition of these issues is an objective of this research. The paper reviews the history of the lifecycle concept, gives its analysis and possible applications in management studies. In the analytical review of literature, there is an attempt of theoretical systematization for some provisions from the concept on consistency and continuity of stages turnover, on conditions of their identification and a nonlinear path. For discussions of the scientific community, the author presents hypotheses of the available effect of compression (density) in development stages, as well as heterogenic risk concentration. There is an assumption that economic systems have different orders for both the general and short lifecycles. Based on generalized theoretical and methodological provisions of stages in the lifecycle phases, the author attempts to combine functional and evolutionary models. The author also details distinctive features in the process of control over uncertainty and risks in the sequence of development stages.