Hovhannes Karapetyan

Type of the article: Research Article

Tourism has become a key driver of inclusive growth and economic diversification in transition economies, including the Republic of Armenia, making it a priority area of development. This study evaluates the interaction between tourism sector indicators and national macroeconomic performance on GDP. Annual data for 2001–2023 were analyzed using a robust econometric framework that integrates LASSO regression, Granger causality tests, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) modeling. GDP was consistently treated as the dependent variable, while LASSO served only as a variable selection tool to identify the most influential indicators.

The results reveal that economic growth is shaped not only by quantitative expansion but also by qualitative improvements. Hotel infrastructure (β = 3.59, p = 0.011) and the share of tourism in total exports (β = 18.99, p = 0.046) significantly stimulate GDP, while international tourist arrivals show a negligible and slightly negative correlation (–0.000097, p = 0.036), underscoring the limited efficiency of visitor numbers without adequate monetization. Spatial analysis highlights a concentrated market structure, with 82% of revenues concentrated in Yerevan (HHI = 0.70), despite Kotayk’s high specialization index (LQ = 14.1). Regional elasticity estimates indicate that Vayots Dzor (ε ≈ 0.85), Kotayk (ε ≈ 0.67), and Syunik (ε ≈ 0.58) are most sensitive to tourism-driven growth, far above the national average (ε ≈ 0.34).

These findings suggest that Armenia’s tourism-led GDP growth depends on infrastructure modernization, high-value services, and balanced regional development. Policy interventions should prioritize decentralization and large-scale investment over simple visitor growth.