Tracking changes in economic growth-quality conditions in Armenia: A multidimensional directional diagnostic approach
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.24(4).2026.19
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Article InfoVolume 24 2026, Issue #4, pp. 290–304
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Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
Real GDP growth alone does not reveal whether economic expansion is productive, resilient, inclusive, institutionally grounded, or environmentally sustainable. This study develops a Directional Growth-Quality Conditions Index (DGQCI) for Armenia for 2003–2023. The composite contains 22 indicators in six dimensions: sources of economic growth, macroeconomic stability, human capital, structural transformation and innovation, institutional development, and inclusiveness and sustainability. Six context-dependent series (private and government consumption contributions, the real effective exchange rate, reserves, the current-account balance, and FDI/GDP) remain diagnostics but are excluded from aggregation. Publication requires at least 80% total indicator coverage and at least 50% of the intended indicators within every dimension; a stricter two-thirds rule is tested separately. Real GDP growth and the breadth of favorable growth-quality movements diverge substantially. Human capital has the highest average directional score, while inclusiveness and sustainability have the lowest. Results are highly stable to alternative weights, robust to a constant 16-indicator information set and to reassigning poverty to the inclusiveness dimension, but materially less concordant under magnitude-sensitive scoring. The DGQCI is therefore a directional monitoring tool, not a cardinal measure of welfare, causal policy impact, or the magnitude of socioeconomic progress.
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)O47, O11, C43, Q01
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References26
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Tables3
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Figures8
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- Figure 1. Directional growth-quality conditions index and real GDP growth in Armenia, 2003–2023
- Figure 2. DGQCI in Armenia by weighted dimension contributions
- Figure 3. DGQCI first dimension: Sources of economic growth
- Figure 4. DGQCI second dimension: Macroeconomic stability
- Figure 5. DGQCI third dimension: Human capital development
- Figure 6. DGQCI fourth dimension: Structural transformation and innovation
- Figure 7. DGQCI fifth dimension: Institutional development
- Figure 8. DGQCI sixth dimension: Inclusiveness and sustainability
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- Table 1. Components and indicators included in the directional growth-quality conditions index (DGQCI)
- Table 2. Annual DGQCI values, dimension scores, and total indicator coverage; Armenia, 2003–2023
- Table 3. Sensitivity of the DGQCI, Armenia, 2003–2023
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