Tracking changes in economic growth-quality conditions in Armenia: A multidimensional directional diagnostic approach

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Real GDP growth alone does not reveal whether economic expansion is productive, resilient, inclusive, institutionally grounded, or environmentally sustainable. This study develops a Directional Growth-Quality Conditions Index (DGQCI) for Armenia for 2003–2023. The composite contains 22 indicators in six dimensions: sources of economic growth, macroeconomic stability, human capital, structural transformation and innovation, institutional development, and inclusiveness and sustainability. Six context-dependent series (private and government consumption contributions, the real effective exchange rate, reserves, the current-account balance, and FDI/GDP) remain diagnostics but are excluded from aggregation. Publication requires at least 80% total indicator coverage and at least 50% of the intended indicators within every dimension; a stricter two-thirds rule is tested separately. Real GDP growth and the breadth of favorable growth-quality movements diverge substantially. Human capital has the highest average directional score, while inclusiveness and sustainability have the lowest. Results are highly stable to alternative weights, robust to a constant 16-indicator information set and to reassigning poverty to the inclusiveness dimension, but materially less concordant under magnitude-sensitive scoring. The DGQCI is therefore a directional monitoring tool, not a cardinal measure of welfare, causal policy impact, or the magnitude of socioeconomic progress.

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    • Figure 1. Directional growth-quality conditions index and real GDP growth in Armenia, 2003–2023
    • Figure 2. DGQCI in Armenia by weighted dimension contributions
    • Figure 3. DGQCI first dimension: Sources of economic growth
    • Figure 4. DGQCI second dimension: Macroeconomic stability
    • Figure 5. DGQCI third dimension: Human capital development
    • Figure 6. DGQCI fourth dimension: Structural transformation and innovation
    • Figure 7. DGQCI fifth dimension: Institutional development
    • Figure 8. DGQCI sixth dimension: Inclusiveness and sustainability
    • Table 1. Components and indicators included in the directional growth-quality conditions index (DGQCI)
    • Table 2. Annual DGQCI values, dimension scores, and total indicator coverage; Armenia, 2003–2023
    • Table 3. Sensitivity of the DGQCI, Armenia, 2003–2023
    • Conceptualization
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Knarik Vardanyan, Gayane Avagyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Formal Analysis
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Knarik Vardanyan, Gayane Avagyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Funding acquisition
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Knarik Vardanyan, Gayane Avagyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Investigation
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Knarik Vardanyan, Gayane Avagyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Methodology
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Project administration
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan
    • Resources
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Knarik Vardanyan, Gayane Avagyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Supervision
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Validation
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Knarik Vardanyan, Gayane Avagyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Writing – original draft
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Knarik Vardanyan, Gayane Avagyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Writing – review & editing
      Tatul M. Mkrtchyan, Garik Petrosyan, Narine Petrosyan
    • Data curation
      Garik Petrosyan
    • Software
      Garik Petrosyan
    • Visualization
      Garik Petrosyan