The impact of national cybersecurity on global competitiveness: A data mining approach

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Type of the article: Theoretical Article

Abstract
National cybersecurity opens new opportunities for digital transformation and helps counter the growing threat of cyberattacks. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology and identify the most influential predictors of national cybersecurity in global competitiveness, utilizing the data mining approach. To assess the impact of cybersecurity characteristics, modern machine learning methods were implemented in the Salford Predictive Modeler software environment, including Classification and Regression Trees, Random Forest, Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, Generalized Path Seeker, and classical regression. Data mining was conducted using the World Competitiveness Ranking (WCR) indicators, constructed by the Institute for Management Development, and the National Cybersecurity Index (NCSI), constructed by the e-Governance Academy, for 64 countries as of 2024. Three groups of countries were identified with different predicted levels of competitiveness, underscoring the importance of balancing the development of both external and internal components of cyber defense. The empirical results demonstrate that countries with strong cybersecurity management capabilities achieve higher competitive positions, even with limited participation in global cyber initiatives. At the same time, active global involvement without sufficient internal readiness does not create sustainable competitive advantages. The regression tree provided a transparent allocation of key subfactors, with global cybersecurity contribution and cybersecurity management playing leading roles. The significance of the study lies in shaping methodology and state policy in cybersecurity, human resource development, regulatory framework enhancement, and digital ecosystem strengthening.

Acknowledgments
The paper is prepared within the scientific research projects “Digital transformations to ensure civil protection and post-war economic recovery in the face of environmental and social challenges” (№0124U000549) and “Drivers and barriers to human capital transformation for a circular and green economy” (No. 0126U001080).

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    • Figure 1. Dynamics of publications related to “competitiveness” and “cybersecurity” in the Scopus database during 2017–2025
    • Figure 2. Checking the normality of the distribution of forecast residuals
    • Figure D1. Regression tree of the influence of cybersecurity sub-factors on the level of country competitiveness
    • Table 1. Pearson correlation matrix for national cybersecurity indicators and transformed competitiveness level
    • Table 2. Automated results (TARGET=WCR*)
    • Table 3. Structure of the optimal regression tree regarding the relationship between cybersecurity subfactors and competitiveness
    • Table A1. Content essence of indicators used to develop the global competitiveness forecast
    • Table B1. Input data array for building a forecast of the global competitiveness level
    • Table C1. The forecast values of competitiveness level for the 64 countries using the Score Data procedure in SPM software
    • Table E1. Data for constructing QQ-plot
    • Conceptualization
      Vitaliia Koibichuk, David Fulep, Oleksandr Kubatko, Andrii Skrylnyk, Kseniia Mohylna
    • Data curation
      Vitaliia Koibichuk, Alina Yefimenko, Andrii Skrylnyk, Kseniia Mohylna
    • Formal Analysis
      Vitaliia Koibichuk, David Fulep, Oleksandr Kubatko, Alina Yefimenko
    • Methodology
      Vitaliia Koibichuk, Oleksandr Kubatko, Alina Yefimenko, Andrii Skrylnyk, Kseniia Mohylna
    • Supervision
      Vitaliia Koibichuk
    • Writing – original draft
      Vitaliia Koibichuk, David Fulep, Oleksandr Kubatko, Alina Yefimenko, Andrii Skrylnyk, Kseniia Mohylna
    • Writing – review & editing
      Vitaliia Koibichuk, David Fulep, Oleksandr Kubatko, Alina Yefimenko, Andrii Skrylnyk, Kseniia Mohylna
    • Funding acquisition
      David Fulep
    • Resources
      David Fulep
    • Software
      David Fulep, Alina Yefimenko, Andrii Skrylnyk, Kseniia Mohylna
    • Validation
      David Fulep, Alina Yefimenko, Andrii Skrylnyk, Kseniia Mohylna
    • Project administration
      Oleksandr Kubatko
    • Visualization
      Oleksandr Kubatko
    • Investigation
      Alina Yefimenko, Andrii Skrylnyk, Kseniia Mohylna