GRU-based forecasting of conflict-related socio-economic vulnerabilities under illicit practices
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Received May 25, 2026;Accepted July 3, 2026;Published July 10, 2026
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Author(s)Hanna YarovenkoLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8760-6835
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Olena PakhnenkoLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4703-4078
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Liudmyla RiabushkaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8597-6819
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Iryna TarasenkoLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3626-4377
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Viktoriia KhmurovaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6398-6351
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.24(3).2026.02
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Article InfoVolume 24 2026, Issue #3, pp. 15-36
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2 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
The study develops a framework for forecasting conflict-related socio-economic vulnerabilities in a cross-country sample using indicators of armed conflict risk, forced displacement, and illicit practices. The analysis uses panel data covering 135 countries over 2012–2024. The Conflict Risk Index, Refugee Load Index, and Cyber Vulnerability Index were constructed using standardized indicators and Principal Component Analysis. The Cyber Vulnerability Index is a proxy for digital exposure to cyber-related disruptions. First-difference panel regressions identified associations between conflict- and migration-related risks and socio-economic indicators. Separately, GRU neural networks were applied to forecast these indicators, while comparative quartile-based ablation and scenario-based perturbation analyses assessed the contribution and sensitivity of corruption, AML-related risk, and cyber vulnerability across country groups. Regression analysis showed that the Conflict Risk Index was statistically associated with deterioration in GDP, GDP per capita, GDP per capita growth, political stability, life expectancy, labor force dynamics, and migration balance. The Refugee Load Index was associated with positive net migration alongside weaker economic growth and lower political stability in host countries. Forecasting results were heterogeneous: adding corruption, AML-related risk, and cyber vulnerability indicators improved accuracy for several targets, but deteriorated performance for some variables and showed evidence of overfitting for GDP per capita in the conflict-risk specification. In high-conflict-risk countries, the largest forecast improvements were for life expectancy (61.02%), GDP per capita (43.96%), and net migration (10.75%); in high-refugee-load countries, they were observed for life expectancy (60.30%), political stability (38.41%), and net migration (16.20%). The framework can support early warning, resilience assessment, and crisis response.
Acknowledgment
We acknowledge with gratitude the financial support provided by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine for the research project “Cybersecurity and digital transformations of the country’s wartime economy: the fight against cybercrime, corruption and the shadow sector,” state registration number 0124U000544.
- Keywords
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)F51, O11, K42, C45
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References47
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Tables3
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Figures9
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- Figure 1. Spatial differentiation of countries worldwide by the Conflict Risk Index in: a) 2012; b) 2014; c) 2015; d) 2020; e) 2022; f) 2023
- Figure 2. Spatial differentiation of countries worldwide by the Refugee Load Index in: a) 2012; b) 2014; c) 2015; d) 2020; e) 2022; f) 2023
- Figure 3. Proxy feature importance in baseline GRU models with the Conflict Risk Index
- Figure 4. Proxy feature importance in extended GRU models with the Conflict Risk Index
- Figure 5. Proxy feature importance in baseline GRU models with the Refugee Load Index
- Figure 6. Proxy feature importance in extended GRU models with the Refugee Load Index
- Figure 7. Comparative quartile-based ablation analysis for countries with high and low (a) conflict risk and (b) refugee load
- Figure 8. Scenario-based perturbation analysis under 1%, 5%, and 10% increases in AML, corruption risks, and cyber vulnerability for countries with high and low conflict risk
- Figure 9. Scenario-based perturbation analysis under 1%, 5%, and 10% increases in AML, corruption risks, and cyber vulnerability for countries with high and low refugee load
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- Table 1. List of indicators
- Table 2. Panel regression results for socio-economic indicators
- Table 3. Machine learning results of baseline and extended GRU models
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Conceptualization
Hanna Yarovenko, Olena Pakhnenko
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Data curation
Hanna Yarovenko
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Funding acquisition
Hanna Yarovenko, Olena Pakhnenko, Liudmyla Riabushka
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Investigation
Hanna Yarovenko, Olena Pakhnenko, Liudmyla Riabushka
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Methodology
Hanna Yarovenko, Viktoriia Khmurova
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Project administration
Hanna Yarovenko, Olena Pakhnenko
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Supervision
Hanna Yarovenko
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Visualization
Hanna Yarovenko, Liudmyla Riabushka
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Writing – original draft
Hanna Yarovenko, Olena Pakhnenko, Viktoriia Khmurova
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Writing – review & editing
Hanna Yarovenko, Liudmyla Riabushka, Iryna Tarasenko
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Resources
Olena Pakhnenko, Liudmyla Riabushka, Iryna Tarasenko
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Validation
Liudmyla Riabushka, Iryna Tarasenko, Viktoriia Khmurova
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Formal Analysis
Iryna Tarasenko, Viktoriia Khmurova
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Conceptualization
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Academic resilience, emotional intelligence, and academic performance among undergraduate students
Uzoma Ononye
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Mercy Ogbeta ,
Francis Ndudi
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Dudutari Bereprebofa ,
Ikechuckwu Maduemezia
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/kpm.06(1).2022.01
Knowledge and Performance Management Volume 6, 2022 Issue #1 pp. 1-10 Views: 7107 Downloads: 1807 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯAcademic resilience and emotional intelligence are considered important personal resources for furthering students’ academic performance. However, many educational organizations seem to trivialize the performance implications of these constructs in teachings and curriculum. Consequently, it can decrease not just their academic performance but also their employability, as they lack the generic competencies to adapt and survive in a stressful context. Even so, empirical evidence on integrating academic resilience, emotional intelligence, and academic performance remains unexplored in the Nigerian university context. Therefore, the study aimed to investigate the linkages between academic resilience, emotional intelligence, and academic performance in Nigeria. The partial least square (PLS) modeling method was utilized for testing the stated hypotheses with data collected from 179 final year undergraduate students in the regular B.Sc. Business Administration and B.Sc. Marketing program at Delta State University, Nigeria. From the PLS results, the study reported that academic resilience was positively related to emotional intelligence (β = 0.125, p = 0.007), academic resilience (β = 0.231, p = 0.000) and emotional intelligence (β = 0.260, p = 0.000) were positively related to academic performance, and emotional resilience mediated the positive relationship between academic resilience and academic performance (β = 0.057, p = 0.005). While academic resilience predicted academic performance, it also predicted emotional intelligence, which affected academic performance significantly and positively.
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Evaluating the effects of IFRS 9 on Jordanian banks’ credit and financial metrics
Banks and Bank Systems Volume 19, 2024 Issue #4 pp. 70-83 Views: 6760 Downloads: 681 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯAdopting International Financial Reporting 9 is critically relevant as it significantly transforms accounting practices, particularly in credit risk management, for banks in Jordan. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the impact of implementing International Financial Reporting 9 on the financial performance and credit risk management practices of Jordanian banks. A quantitative analysis was conducted using the Difference-in-Differences approach and Fixed Effects models on data from 19 banks operating between 2012 and 2022.
The results indicate that the adoption of International Financial Reporting 9 led to a substantial increase in loan loss provisions, with a mean increase of 0.25 (t-value = 18.00). This increase in loan loss provisions negatively affected profitability metrics such as Return on Assets and Return on Equity, which showed mean decreases of 0.0857 (t-value = 4.22) post-implementation. Despite the negative impact on profitability, the findings also highlight improvements in financial transparency and stability due to more accurate credit risk assessment.
While the adoption of International Financial Reporting 9 imposes operational and financial challenges, it enhances the robustness and clarity of financial reporting in Jordanian banks. -
Current trends in global demographic processes
Sergii Sardak
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Maxim Korneyev
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Vladimir Dzhyndzhoian
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Tatyana Fedotova
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Olha Tryfonova
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(1).2018.05
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 16, 2018 Issue #1 pp. 48-57 Views: 5246 Downloads: 1585 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯCurrent local and national demographic trends have deepened the existing and formed new global demographic processes that have received a new historical reasoning that requires deep scientific research taking into account the influence of the multifactorial global dimension of the modern society development.
The purpose of the article is to study the development of global demographic processes and to define the causes of their occurrence, manifestations, implications and prospects for implementation in the first half of the 21st century.
The authors have identified and characterized four global demographic processes, namely population growth, migration, increase of tourism, and change in population structure. It is projected that in the 30’s of the 21st century, the number and growth rates of the world population will reach the objective growth and these dynamics over the next two decades will begin to change in the direction of reducing the growth rates, which will lead to gradual stabilization, and eventually reduce the size of the world population. By the middle of the 21st century, one can observe the preservation of the growth rates of international and domestic migration, the growth of international migration flows from the South to the North and from the East to the West, the strengthening of new economically developed centers of gravity (Canada, Australia and New Zealand), the increase in migration of rural population to cities, as well as urbanization and activation of the metropolises development. The share of international tourists in comparison with the world population will be constantly increasing, and the annual growth rate of the number of international tourists will significantly depend on the world economy and may vary at the several percent level. Permanent change will occur in the age, religious-cultural and socio-economic structure of the population.

