Determinants of education–job mismatch in Vietnam: Evidence from the Labor Force Survey and provincial institutional indicators
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.24(3).2026.11
-
Article InfoVolume 24 2026, Issue #3, pp. 145-160
- 7 Views
-
2 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
Education–job mismatch is a critical challenge in Vietnam, as rapid educational expansion and changing labor demand have intensified concerns regarding efficient human capital allocation. Despite growing attention to mismatch, there is limited evidence on how labor market structures and provincial institutional conditions jointly shape mismatch outcomes.
This study investigates the determinants of education–job mismatch using data from the 2022 Vietnam Labor Force Survey (LFS) and provincial institutional indicators from the 2022 Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI). Education–job mismatch is measured by comparing workers’ educational attainment with occupational skill requirements. A multinomial logit model is employed to estimate the likelihood of under- and overeducation relative to adequately matched employment, based on data from 411,173 workers.
The results show that educational attainment is systematically associated with observed mismatch outcomes. Compared with workers with upper secondary education, college graduates exhibit a relative risk ratio (RRR) of 39.87 and university graduates an RRR of 10.63 for overeducation. Workers employed in foreign-invested enterprises are 3.42 times more likely to be overeducated than workers in the state sector. Provincial institutional conditions are also associated with a mismatch. The Labor Training Index is associated with a lower likelihood of overeducation (RRR = 0.89), whereas the Informal Charges Index is positively associated with overeducation (RRR = 1.19).
The findings suggest that education–job mismatch in Vietnam reflects broader structural and institutional conditions in addition to individual characteristics. Strengthening workforce training systems and improving alignment between education and labor demand may contribute to more efficient human capital allocation.
Acknowledgment
This study uses secondary data obtained from the 2022 Vietnam Labor Force Survey (LFS) conducted by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) and the 2022 Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) published by the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI). Access to the LFS microdata is subject to the data access and usage regulations of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, while PCI data are publicly available through the official PCI database.
The study is based exclusively on anonymized secondary data and does not involve direct participation of human subjects or access to personally identifiable information. Therefore, formal ethical approval was not required.
The authors received no specific funding for this research and declare no conflict of interest.
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools were used solely to assist with language editing, grammar checking, and improving the clarity of academic writing. All analyses, interpretations, results, and conclusions were developed and verified by the authors, who assume full responsibility for the content of this manuscript.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)J24, J21, I25, O15
-
References48
-
Tables3
-
Figures1
-
- Figure 1. Conceptual framework of education–job mismatch
-
- Table 1. Occupational skill levels and benchmark qualification requirements used to measure education–job mismatch
- Table 2. Definition of variables used in the empirical analysis
- Table 3. Determinants of education–job mismatch among employed workers in Vietnam
-
- Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2011). Skills, tasks and technologies: Implications for employment and earnings. In O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (Eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics (pp. 1043-1171). Elsevier.
- Adalet McGowan, M., & Andrews, D. (2015). Skill mismatch and public policy in OECD countries (OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 1210). OECD Publishing.
- Addison, J. T., & Portugal, P. (2002). Job search methods and outcomes. Oxford Economic Papers, 54(3), 505-533.
- Alba-Ramírez, A. (1993). Mismatch in the Spanish labor market: Overeducation? Journal of Human Resources, 28(2), 259-278.
- Allen, J., & van der Velden, R. (2001). Educational mismatches versus skill mismatches: Effects on wages, job satisfaction, and on-the-job search. Oxford Economic Papers, 53(3), 434-452.
- Allen, J., & van der Velden, R. (2013). Skills for the 21st century: Implications for Dutch education. In L. R. Smith (Ed.), Higher education: Recent trends, emerging issues and future outlook (pp. 1-40). Nova Science Publishers.
- Arias Ortiz, E., Kaltenberg, M., Jara-Figueroa, C., Bornacelly, I., & Hartmann, D. (2020). Local labor markets and higher education mismatch: What is the role of public and private institutions? (Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper No. IDB-WP-1115). Inter-American Development Bank.
- Atiq-ur-Rehman, Rauf, A., & Khan, G. Y. (2021). Human capital–growth nexus: The role of skill mismatch. Intellectual Economics, 15(1), 15-30.
- Autor, D. H. (2014). Skills, education, and the rise of earnings inequality among the “other 99 percent”. Science, 344(6186), 843-851.
- Becker, G. S. (1964). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education (1st ed.). National Bureau of Economic Research; distributed by Columbia University Press.
- Brunello, G., Garibaldi, P., & Wasmer, E. (Eds.). (2007). Education and training in Europe. Oxford University Press.
- Capsada-Munsech, Q. (2019). Measuring overeducation: Incidence, correlation and overlaps across indicators and countries. Social Indicators Research, 145(1), 279-301.
- Cedefop. (2009). Skill mismatch: Identifying priorities for future research (Cedefop Working Paper No. 3). Cedefop.
- Chevalier, A. (2003). Measuring overeducation. Economica, 70(279), 509-531.
- Di Pietro, G. (2002). Technological change, labor markets, and ‘low-skill, low-technology traps’. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 69(9), 885-895.
- Dolton, P., & Vignoles, A. (2000). The incidence and effects of overeducation in the U.K. graduate labour market. Economics of Education Review, 19(2), 179-198.
- Duncan, G. J., & Hoffman, S. D. (1981). The incidence and wage effects of overeducation. Economics of Education Review, 1(1), 75-86.
- Flisi, S., Goglio, V., Meroni, E. C., Rodrigues, M., & Vera-Toscano, E. (2017). Measuring occupational mismatch: Overeducation and overskill in Europe – Evidence from PIAAC. Social Indicators Research, 131(3), 1211-1249.
- Freeman, R. B. (1976). The overeducated American. Academic Press.
- General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO). (2024). Report on labour force survey 2022.
- Goos, M., Manning, A., & Salomons, A. (2014). Explaining job polarization: Routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509-2526.
- Green, F., & McIntosh, S. (2007). Is there a genuine under-utilization of skills amongst the over-qualified? Applied Economics, 39(4), 427-439.
- Hartog, J. (2000). Over-education and earnings: Where are we, where should we go? Economics of Education Review, 19(2), 131-147.
- International Labour Office. (2012). International standard classification of occupations 2008 (ISCO-08): Structure, group definitions and correspondence tables (Vol. 1). International Labour Office.
- International Labour Organization (ILO). (2018). Measurement of qualifications and skills mismatches of persons in employment [Conference paper].
- International Labour Organization (ILO). (2020, April 1). What is skills mismatch and why should we care?
- Jones, S., Santos, R., & Xirinda, G. (2024). Employment mismatches drive expectational earnings errors among Mozambican graduates. World Bank Economic Review, 38(1), 51-73.
- Le Quang, H., & Tran-Nam, B. (2019). Qualification mismatch in the labor market and the impact on earnings: Evidence from Vietnam. Journal of Economics and Development, 21(2), 223-233.
- Leuven, E., & Oosterbeek, H. (2011). Overeducation and mismatch in the labor market. In E. Hanushek, S. Machin, & L. Woessmann (Eds.), Handbook of the Economics of Education (Vol. 4, pp. 283-326). Elsevier.
- Mavromaras, K., Mahuteau, S., Sloane, P., & Wei, Z. (2013). The effect of overskilling dynamics on wages. Education Economics, 21(3), 281-303.
- McGuinness, S. (2006). Overeducation in the labour market. Journal of Economic Surveys, 20(3), 387-418.
- McGuinness, S., Pouliakas, K., & Redmond, P. (2017). How useful is the concept of skills mismatch? International Labour Office.
- McGuinness, S., Pouliakas, K., & Redmond, P. (2018). Skill mismatch: Concept, measurement and policy approaches. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(4), 985-1015.
- OECD. (2012). Better skills, better jobs, better lives: A strategic approach to skills policies. OECD Publishing.
- OECD. (2023). OECD Skills Outlook 2023: Skills for a resilient green and digital transition. OECD Publishing.
- Oyer, P., & Schaefer, S. (2011). Personnel economics: Hiring and incentives. In O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (Eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics (Vol. 4B, pp. 1769-1823). Elsevier.
- Pham, M. T. (2021). Determinants of qualification–job mismatch among Vietnamese workers. Nghiên cứu Kinh tế, 2(513), 52-66. (In Vietnamese).
- Pissarides, C. A. (2000). Equilibrium unemployment theory (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
- Quintini, G. (2011). Over-qualified or under-skilled: A review of existing literature (OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 121). OECD Publishing.
- Robst, J. (2007). Education and job match: The relatedness of college major and work. Economics of Education Review, 26(4), 397-407.
- Sattinger, M. (1993). Assignment models of the distribution of earnings. Journal of Economic Literature, 31(2), 831-880.
- Sattinger, M. (2012). Qualitative mismatches. Foundations and Trends in Microeconomics, 8(1-2), 1-168.
- Sicherman, N. (1991). “Overeducation” in the labor market. Journal of Labor Economics, 9(2), 101-122.
- Sparreboom, T., & Tarvid, A. (2016). Imbalanced job polarization and skills mismatch in Europe. Journal for Labour Market Research, 49, 15-42.
- Verhaest, D., & Omey, E. (2006). The impact of overeducation and its measurement. Social Indicators Research, 77(3), 419-448.
- WEF. (2014). Matching skills and labour market needs: Building social partnerships for better skills and better jobs. World Economic Forum.
- World Bank. (2014). Vietnam development report 2014: Skilling up Vietnam – Preparing the workforce for a modern market economy. World Bank.
- World Bank. (2023). World development report 2023: Migrants, refugees, and societies. World Bank.


