Analyzing the risk of entrepreneurship in tourist traffic

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The contribution is aimed at developing a model of demand in tourist traffic with due regard to economic, geographical, demographical and social factors such as the GDP, Consumer Price Index, prices of trips, revenues per capita, exchange rate, etc. Important parts of this model are made up by the unpredictable negative situations that have already happened some time ago. The aim is to identify them and perform a follow-up analysis of the potential threats to a company involved in the tourist industry. Rated among those situations are terrorism, earthquakes and aviation accidents.

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    • Figure 1. Development of tourism between 1995–2013
    • Figure 2. Development of revenues from tourism and the prices for trips for the period 1998–2008 (values representing the average of perceptual year-to-year differences of 23 countries)
    • Figure 3. Development of revenues from tourism and Consumer Price Index for the period 1998– 2008 (values representing the average of percentual year-to-year differences of 23 countries)
    • Figure 4. Development of the number of visitors and revenues from tourism for the period 1998–2008 (values representing the average of percentual year-to-year differences of 23 countries)
    • Table 1. Development of tourism in 2013 by regions (%)
    • Table 2. Year-to-year development of tourism over the period of 10 years (%)
    • Table 3. Overview of methods of suggested models
    • Table 4. Model results