Digital financial infrastructure and SME credit access: Systemic evidence across financial inclusion and economic growth channels

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Digital financial infrastructure serves as a key structural correlate of small and medium enterprise (SME) credit availability and systemic financial development across post-Soviet transition economies. This study evaluates the empirical associations between technological connectivity, institutional policy readiness – specifically Digital ID and ISO 20022 standardization – and SME credit access (CreditLine) as the primary outcome of interest, alongside auxiliary supporting analyses of population-level financial inclusion (Ic_Y_norm) and macroeconomic output (lnGDPperCapita). Utilizing a panel dataset for 14 post-Soviet countries from 2011 to 2023 (N = 182) sourced from the World Bank WDI, Global Findex, and official central bank reports, the empirical framework relies on One-Way Country Fixed Effects (FE) specifications with Driscoll–Kraay robust standard errors to account for spatial and temporal dependence, supplemented by a Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) sensitivity analysis. Mobile connectivity demonstrates a positive baseline association with SME credit availability, while internet penetration is identified as a primary empirical correlate of population-level financial inclusion across specifications. The protection of legal rights correlates with enhanced SME credit access, whereas strict AML/CFT compliance shows a strong negative association. Institutional messaging standardization via ISO 20022 exhibits heterogeneous structural differential associations: while positively correlating with SME credit access, it reflects a statistically significant negative association with broader population inclusion. Robustness estimations indicate that exogenous regional shocks (COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, and energy crises) and macroeconomic slack (inflation, unemployment) correspond to systemic contractions in credit availability.

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    • Figure 1. Heatmaps of key indicators of digital infrastructure and access to credit in post-Soviet countries (2011–2023)
    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics, data sources, and variable specifications (2011–2023, N = 182)
    • Table 2. Panel regression results (FE and RE) for the model of SME access to credit resources
    • Table 3. Fixed effects by country: cross-country differences in SME credit inclusion
    • Table 4. Panel regression results (FE and RE) for the financial inclusion model for the population
    • Table 5. Fixed effects by country: cross-country differences for the financial inclusion model for the population
    • Table 6. Panel regression results (FE and RE) for the model of macroeconomic effects of the digital transformation of the financial system
    • Table 7. Fixed effects by country: cross-country differences for the model of macroeconomic effects of the financial system’s digital transformation
    • Table 8. Results of models with fixed effects and a dummy variable for crisis years (2011–2023)
    • Table 9. Robustness test: fixed-effects estimation on un-interpolated global Findex waves (N = 56, T = 4)
    • Table 10. Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) sensitivity analysis for SME credit access (CreditLine, 2011–2023)
    • Table A1. Country-level implementation dates and coding for ISO20022 (2011–2023)
    • Conceptualization
      Kalilla Abdullayev, Hanna Strokovych, Mkhitar Aslanyan, Oleksiy Dzenis, Dina Kanagatova
    • Funding acquisition
      Kalilla Abdullayev, Dina Kanagatova
    • Project administration
      Kalilla Abdullayev, Olena Zhuk, Dina Kanagatova
    • Supervision
      Kalilla Abdullayev, Olena Zhuk, Mkhitar Aslanyan
    • Data curation
      Nataliia Lokhanova, Olena Zhuk
    • Formal Analysis
      Nataliia Lokhanova
    • Methodology
      Nataliia Lokhanova, Olena Zhuk, Mkhitar Aslanyan, Oleksiy Dzenis
    • Software
      Nataliia Lokhanova
    • Visualization
      Nataliia Lokhanova, Oleksiy Dzenis
    • Writing – original draft
      Nataliia Lokhanova, Mkhitar Aslanyan, Oleksiy Dzenis, Dina Kanagatova
    • Resources
      Hanna Strokovych, Olena Zhuk, Oleksiy Dzenis, Dina Kanagatova
    • Validation
      Hanna Strokovych, Mkhitar Aslanyan, Dina Kanagatova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Hanna Strokovych, Mkhitar Aslanyan, Dina Kanagatova
    • Investigation
      Mkhitar Aslanyan, Dina Kanagatova