Digitalization of tax and customs administration and the oversight of public-private partnership contracts: Cross-country evidence and Kazakhstan’s special-purpose audit context

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Public-private partnerships are a principal vehicle for infrastructure finance, yet their institutional correlates are poorly measured. This study examines how tax and customs digitalization and the oversight of PPP contracts relate to PPP deal flow, with Kazakhstan as a case. Customs digitalization is measured by WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement commitments and realized implementation in the UN survey, tax digitalization by electronic filing and payment rates, and oversight by contract-management and supreme-audit scores. Poisson and staggered-adoption models use 359 observations across 83 low- and middle-income economies (2020–2024), larger and more PPP-active than the 50 excluded, and 803 across 81 WTO members (2015–2024). Legal commitments to digital customs procedures show no association with financial closures, nor do electronic tax filing and payment. Realized implementation of electronic duty payment is associated with about 0.4 log points more closures per level; the two-year lead is insignificant, and the estimate loses significance without China, India, and Brazil. The three customs measures thus distinguish perceived trade-logistics performance, formal commitment, and realized transactional implementation. Contract-management regulatory quality (β = 0.023, p < 0.01) is associated with closures through accounting for PPP liabilities and the presence of a regulator, whereas post-project audit and supreme-audit oversight are not. In Kazakhstan, customs digitalization was complete by 2019, the 2021 amendments followed the national audit of PPP obligations, and termination rates differ across regions, not cohorts. State audit of budget execution reaches PPP obligations directly, whereas special-purpose audit applies only where the state partner is a quasi-public entity.

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    • Figure 1. Standardized coefficients from the preferred count model (Poisson, year fixed effects; ±95% confidence intervals)
    • Figure 2. Kazakhstan PPP projects and investment by contract-signing year, 2015–2025
    • Figure 3. Kazakhstan PPP registry. Contracts signed by year in Almaty region and in the other regions (registry as of 1 April 2026)
    • Figure 4. Kazakhstan. Digital-government and PPP-oversight trajectories, 2016–2025
    • Figure D1. Kazakhstan PPP registry: terminations per 100 project-years by signing cohort (points, 95% confidence intervals) and raw share terminated (bars)
    • Table 1. Variables, definitions and sources
    • Table 2. Preferred specification: PPP project count (Poisson)
    • Table 3. Legal commitments under the Trade Facilitation Agreement and PPP project count, 2015–2024
    • Table 4. Realized implementation of digital customs procedures (UN survey scores) and PPP project count, 2015–2024
    • Table 5. Question-level oversight and audit items of the BID survey and PPP outcomes, 2020–2024
    • Table A1. Economies in the estimation sample (preferred specification, 2020–2024)
    • Table A2. Economies in the preferred sample and economies of the PPI universe excluded by missing data, 2020–2024 means
    • Table B1. Descriptive statistics, 133 low- and middle-income economies, 2020–2024
    • Table B2. Correlation matrix of analysis variables (2020–2024)
    • Table C1. Identification and sample checks for the preferred count specification (dependent variable: PPP project count)
    • Table D1. Kazakhstan PPP registry. Exposure-adjusted termination rates by region under a constant-hazard assumption
    • Table D2. Kazakhstan PPP registry: termination rates by signing cohort, adjusted for exposure under a constant-hazard assumption
    • Conceptualization
      Alma Bekbolsynova, Bayansulu Tassybay, Zhyldyz Omurova, Elmira Syzdykova, Alnur Valiev, Elmira Muratova, Maira Valieva
    • Methodology
      Alma Bekbolsynova
    • Validation
      Alma Bekbolsynova, Elmira Syzdykova, Maira Valieva
    • Writing – original draft
      Alma Bekbolsynova, Bayansulu Tassybay, Zhyldyz Omurova, Elmira Syzdykova, Alnur Valiev, Elmira Muratova, Maira Valieva
    • Writing – review & editing
      Alma Bekbolsynova, Bayansulu Tassybay, Zhyldyz Omurova, Elmira Syzdykova, Alnur Valiev, Elmira Muratova, Maira Valieva
    • Data curation
      Bayansulu Tassybay
    • Project administration
      Bayansulu Tassybay
    • Formal Analysis
      Zhyldyz Omurova, Maira Valieva
    • Supervision
      Zhyldyz Omurova
    • Software
      Elmira Syzdykova, Alnur Valiev
    • Resources
      Alnur Valiev
    • Funding acquisition
      Elmira Muratova
    • Investigation
      Elmira Muratova