Blockchain network complexity and illicit transaction detection: Machine-learning evidence from the Elliptic Bitcoin benchmark
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.23(3).2026.27
-
Article InfoVolume 23 2026, Issue #3, pp. 383–398
- 9 Views
-
2 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
The blockchain financial system allows users to send money fast without any border restrictions. However, the same structure of the blockchain may be used as a means of laundering money. This paper assesses the relationship between the complexity of transaction networks and the likelihood of their illicit nature within the public Elliptic Bitcoin benchmark and examines whether anomaly detection using machine learning helps to interpret risks from an AML/CFT perspective. This empirical analysis assumes that Elliptic provides an anonymized transaction network in which nodes correspond to Bitcoin transactions, edges reflect directed transactions, and anonymized features facilitate licit/illicit classification of transactions. Furthermore, the dataset is not considered evidence of sender wallet addresses, receiver wallet addresses, transaction amount, timestamp, ownership of exchanges, user geography, and national AML/CFT effectiveness. Based on the labelled analytical dataset presented in the uploaded workbook (46,564 observations, including 42,019 licit transactions and 4,545 illicit transactions), a logit model found a significant positive correlation between illicit transactions and degree centrality (beta = 1.870, p < 0.001), clustering coefficient (beta = 0.940, p < 0.001), and flow entropy (beta = 0.680, p < 0.001). Isolation Forest and Autoencoder reached AUCs of 0.866 and 0.841, respectively. In turn, the coefficient measuring a country’s regulatory capacity and its interaction term are not included in the estimation because there is no country-window marginal effect. Therefore, this paper does not test for the impact of regulatory capacity of the USA, Singapore, and UAE on transaction classification.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G28, K42, O33
-
References57
-
Tables8
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Corrected benchmark structure and analytical role
- Table 2. Quantitative performance and feature importance metrics
- Table 3. Revised logit results: Determinants of illicit transaction probability
- Table 4. Regulatory context and interpretive boundary conditions
- Table 5. Internal robustness and diagnostic checks
- Table 6. Hypothesis testing summary
- Table A1. Corrected variable-level data sources and analytical roles
- Table A2. Country and regulatory context sources
-
- Ahmad, A. K., Nahar, H. M., & Manajreh, M. M. N. (2023). Effect of social media on shaping the agenda of the communicator in the Jordanian TV channels. Middle East Journal of Communication Studies, 3(2), 1-40.
- Agarwal, U., Rishiwal, V., Tanwar, S., & Yadav, M. (2024). Blockchain and crypto forensics: Investigating crypto frauds. International Journal of Network Management, 34(2), Article e2255.
- Akartuna, E. A., Johnson, S. D., & Thornton, A. (2024). Motivating a standardised approach to financial intelligence: A typological scoping review of money laundering methods and trends. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 21, 1367-1413.
- Al-Muntasir, M. (2022). The phenomenon of information flow from traditional and new media about the Corona pandemic from the perspective of newly graduated media professionals in Yemen. Middle East Journal of Communication Studies, 2(2), 7-25.
- Alkire, S., Kanagaratnam, U., Nogales, R., & Suppa, N. (2022). Revising the global multidimensional poverty index: Empirical insights and robustness. Review of Income and Wealth, 68(S2), 347-384.
- Andrei, F., & Veltri, G. A. (2025). Status spill-over in cryptomarket for illegal goods. Social Science Computer Review, 43(3), 626-648.
- Asiri, A., & Somasundaram, K. (2025). Graph convolution network for fraud detection in bitcoin transactions. Scientific Reports, 15, Article 11076.
- Bajra, U. Q., Rogova, E., & Avdiaj, S. (2024). Cryptocurrency blockchain and its carbon footprint: Anticipating future challenges. Technology in Society, 77, Article 102571.
- Balaskas, S., Nikolopoulos, T., Koutroumani, M., & Rigou, M. (2024). Determinants of tax avoidance intentions in tourism SMEs: The mediating role of coercive power, digital transformation, and the moderating effect of CSR. Sustainability, 16(21), Article 9322.
- Basel Institute on Governance. (2024). Basel AML Index 2024: 13th Public Edition. Basel Institute on Governance.
- Bastiaens, I., Lechner, L., & Postnikov, E. (2025). Non-trade issues in preferential trade agreements and global value chains. Review of International Political Economy, 32(2), 353-380.
- Bensassi, S., & Raz, A. F. (2025). Combating trade-related fraud: Do the Financial Action Task Force recommendations bite? Economica, 92(365), 322-347.
- Benson, V., Turksen, U., & Adamyk, B. (2024). Dark side of decentralised finance: A call for enhanced AML regulation based on use cases of illicit activities. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 32(1), 80-97.
- Chen, S., Liu, Y., Zhang, Q., Shao, Z., & Wang, Z. (2025). Multi-distance spatial-temporal graph neural network for anomaly detection in blockchain transactions. Advanced Intelligent Systems, 7(8), 2400898.
- Cheng, G., & Wen, B. (2025). On the performance-based legitimacy of Financial Action Task Force: A quantitative exploration. Regulation & Governance.
- Dávid-Barrett, E. (2024). Measuring grand corruption. In R. I. Rotberg & F. O. Hampson (Eds.), Grand corruption: Curbing kleptocracy globally (pp. 37-48). Routledge.
- DiMaggio, P. J., & Powell, W. W. (1983). The iron cage revisited: Institutional isomorphism and collective rationality in organizational fields. American Sociological Review, 48(2), 147-160.
- Dote-Pardo, J. S., & Severino-González, P. (2025). Money laundering in emerging countries: Patterns, trends, and knowledge gaps from a systematic review. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 28(2), 341-358.
- Frąszczak, D., & Frąszczak, E. (2024). NetCenLib: A comprehensive Python library for network centrality analysis and evaluation. SoftwareX, 26, Article 101699.
- Frey, T. K., & Tatum, N. T. (2022). Instructor strictness: Instrument development and validation. Communication Education, 71(4), 327-354.
- Fröhlich, M. (2024). The EU model for international competition cooperation: Fighting international competition restrictions beyond the extraterritorial application of the EU competition law regime. In European Yearbook of International Economic Law 2023 (pp. 201-232). Springer.
- Fuda, K. (2025). The evolution of financial regulation and the role of the Monetary Authority of Singapore: A historical analysis based on organizational knowledge creation theory. Management & Organizational History, 20(1), 130-152.
- Gavira-Durón, N., Mayorga-Serna, D., & Bagatella-Osorio, A. (2022). The financial impact of the implementation of Solvency II on the Mexican insurance sector. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 47(2), 349-374.
- Hamed, R. S., Al-Shattarat, W. K., Al-Shattarat, B. K., & Mejri, M. (2024). Exploring the linkages between anti-money laundering guidelines and earnings manipulation techniques. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, Article 1572.
- Haque, A., & Soliman, H. (2025). A transformer-based autoencoder with isolation forest and XGBoost for malfunction and intrusion detection in wireless sensor networks for forest fire prediction. Future Internet, 17(4), 164.
- Kamuhanda, D., Cui, M., & Tessone, C. J. (2023). Illegal community detection in bitcoin transaction networks. Entropy, 25(7), Article 1069.
- Li, J., Zhou, Y., Yao, J., & Liu, X. (2021). An empirical investigation of trust in AI in a Chinese petrochemical enterprise based on institutional theory. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 13564.
- Lima, F. T., & Souza, V. M. (2023). A large comparison of normalization methods on time series. Big Data Research, 34, Article 100407.
- Lin, Z., Luo, Q., Wu, D., Shen, J., Li, L., Nong, X., & Qin, Z. (2026). Detecting illicit transactions in bitcoin: A wavelet-temporal graph transformer approach for anti-money laundering. Scientific Reports, 16, Article 1548.
- Lokanan, M. E. (2025). Enhancing AML compliance: A machine learning approach to suspicious activity detection through routine activity theory. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 28(4/5), 680-698.
- Maheswari, G., Vinith, A., Sathyanarayanan, A. S., & Sowmi Saltonya, M. (2024). An ensemble framework for network anomaly detection using isolation forest and autoencoders. In Proceedings of the 2024 International Conference on Advances in Data Engineering and Intelligent Computing Systems (ADICS) (pp. 1-6). IEEE.
- Meier, H. B., Marthinsen, J. E., Gantenbein, P. A., & Weber, S. S. (2023). Swiss bank (customer) secrecy and the international exchange of information. In Swiss Finance: Banking, Finance, and Digitalization (pp. 159-250). Springer.
- Morshed, A., & Khrais, L. T. (2025). Cybersecurity in digital accounting systems: Challenges and solutions in the Arab Gulf region. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(1), 41.
- Nanyun, N. M., & Nasiri, A. (2021). Role of FATF on financial systems of countries: Successes and challenges. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 24(2), 234-245.
- Ofori, E., & Appiah, M. O. (2025). Multinational tax evasion and money laundering: Examining the financial investigation system in Ghana. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 28(2), 442-462.
- Onufer, M. (2022). The roles and responsibilities of U.S. financial institutions in combatting human trafficking. In Human trafficking (pp. 328-339). Routledge.
- Oreqat, A. (2021). The degree of satisfaction of Facebook users about its features, usage motives and achieved gratifications: An applied study on students of the Faculty of Mass Communication at the Middle East University. Middle East Journal of Communication Studies, 1(1), 7-35.
- Othman, M. (2025). AI and FinTech adoption in Jordanian banking: Toward inclusive and culturally aligned innovation. Banks and Bank Systems, 20(4), 45-59.
- Ozkan-Okay, M., Akin, E., Aslan, Ö., Kosunalp, S., Iliev, T., Stoyanov, I., & Beloev, I. (2024). A comprehensive survey: Evaluating the efficiency of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques on cybersecurity solutions. IEEE Access, 12, 12229-12256.
- Pandurangan, P., Rakshi, A. D., Sundar, M. S. A., Samrat, A. V., Meenambiga, S. S., Vedanarayanan, V., Meena, R. S., Namasivayam, K. R., & Moovendhan, M. (2024). Integrating cutting-edge technologies: AI, IoT, blockchain and nanotechnology for enhanced diagnosis and treatment of colorectal cancer – A review. Journal of Drug Delivery Science and Technology, 91, Article 105197.
- Parycek, P., Schmid, V., & Novak, A.-S. (2024). Artificial intelligence and automation in administrative procedures: Potentials, limitations, and framework conditions. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(2), 8390-8415.
- Paul, R. (2024). European artificial intelligence “trusted throughout the world”: Risk-based regulation and the fashioning of a competitive common AI market. Regulation & Governance, 18(4), 1065-1082.
- Phan, T. T. T. (2025). Leveraging graph neural networks and optimization algorithms to enhance anti-money-laundering systems. In Advances in data science and optimization of complex systems (ICAMCS 2024) (pp. 300-311). Springer LNNS.
- Popik-Mazur, A. (2025). A systematic literature review of illicit financial flows and money laundering: Current state of research and estimation methods. Journal of Economics and Management, 47(1), 257-298.
- Saggese, P., Segalla, E., Sigmund, M., Raunig, B., Zangerl, F., & Haslhofer, B. (2024). Assessing the solvency of virtual asset service providers: Are current standards sufficient? Applied Economics, 57(49), 8178-8193.
- Sultan, N., Mohamed, N., Said, J., & Mohd, A. (2024). The sustainability of the international AML regime and the role of the FATF: The objectivity of the greylisting process of developing jurisdictions like Pakistan. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 27(1), 76-92.
- Taqa, S. B. A. (2025). The mediating role of remote communication on the relationship between electronic human resource management practices and organizational performance in Iraqi commercial banks. Middle East Journal of Communication Studies, 5(1), 1-52.
- Tuhirirwe, C., & Alexander, R. (2025). Efficacy of country legal frameworks and international guidelines in curtailing money laundering and terrorist financing activities in grey list countries: Case studies of Kenya and Uganda. Journal of Economic Criminology, 8, 100153.
- Urooj, S. (2024). A dynamic threshold analysis of effect of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) measures on financial inclusion: Evidence from the world. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 27(4), 696-709.
- Usman, N., Griffiths, M., & Alam, A. (2025). FinTech and money laundering: Moderating effect of financial regulations and financial literacy. Digital Policy, Regulation and Governance, 27(3), 301-326.
- Vilella, S., Capozzi, A., Fornasiero, M., Moncalvo, D., Ricci, V., Ronchiadin, S., & Ruffo, G. (2025). Weirdnodes: Centrality based anomaly detection on temporal networks for the anti-financial crime domain. Applied Network Science, 10, Article 14.
- Wang, H., Liang, Q., Hancock, J. T., & Khoshgoftaar, T. M. (2024). Feature selection strategies: A comparative analysis of SHAP-value and importance-based methods. Journal of Big Data, 11, Article 44.
- Weber, M., Domeniconi, G., Chen, J., Weidele, D. K. I., Bellei, C., Robinson, T., & Leiserson, C. E. (2019). Anti-money laundering in Bitcoin: Experimenting with graph convolutional networks for financial forensics. arXiv.
- Wronka, C. (2022). “Cyber-laundering”: The change of money laundering in the digital age. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 25(2), 330-344.
- Wronka, C. (2023). Financial crime in the decentralized finance ecosystem: New challenges for compliance. Journal of Financial Crime, 30(1), 97-113.
- Zhang, Y., & Zhang, Q. (2025). Navigating the invisible: Ironic compliance, forced labor, and the commodification of offline rights in digitalized workplaces. Journal of Business Ethics, 203, 55-72.
- Zhon, H., & Asiama, A. A. (2022). The prevalence and mechanisms of cyber fraud activities among Ghanaian youths: Routine activity, space transition, and rational choice from differential association perspective. In 2022 IEEE International Symposium on Technology and Society (ISTAS) (pp. 1-7).


