Empirical analysis of the effect of exchange rate volatility on share returns: Evidence from mining companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, South Africa
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Received December 1, 2025;Accepted May 15, 2026;Published August 25, 2026
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Author(s)Simbarashe MoyanaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7060-484X
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Margaret Rutendo MagwedereLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7197-3924
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Godfrey MarozvaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7028-4462
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.23(3).2026.26
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Article InfoVolume 23 2026, Issue #3, pp. 370–382
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35 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
Exchange rate volatility is a critical macroeconomic risk factor in emerging markets, particularly for export-oriented sectors such as mining in South Africa. The South African mining sector is inherently affected by exchange rate volatility, yet it is the economy’s largest foreign-currency earner through the export of mining resources. The study examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on mining companies’ share returns within South Africa. The study applies the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to account for both endogeneity and dynamic effects, using panel data from 15 Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed mining companies over the period 2011 to 2024. The empirical results reveal that exchange rate volatility has a positive and significant effect on the share returns of mining companies, with a coefficient of 0.808, and on total returns (1.094). This indicates that higher currency risk is related to higher return premiums. In contrast, a negative and significant relationship exists between exchange rate volatility and share prices (99.45), implying an adverse valuation effect during heightened uncertainty. Regarding the control variables, GDP growth has a positive effect on share returns (8.978), while oil prices exhibit a negative relationship (–0.327). The results of the study support the risk-return trade-off and the flow-oriented exchange rate approach. The study therefore shows that exchange rate volatility plays a dual role through the enhancement of returns while depressing valuations. This highlights the benefits of implementing currency risk management strategies for investors and policymakers.
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G12, G11, F21, G32
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References50
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Tables4
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Figures0
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- Table 1. Independent variables
- Table 2. Correlation matrix
- Table 3. Empirical results
- Table A1. List of companies
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Conceptualization
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Data curation
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Formal Analysis
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Investigation
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Methodology
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Project administration
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Resources
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Software
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Validation
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Visualization
Simbarashe Moyana, Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Writing – original draft
Simbarashe Moyana
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Supervision
Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Writing – review & editing
Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva
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Conceptualization
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R&D expenditure and its macroeconomic effects: A comparative study of Israel and South Caucasus countries
Mayis Gulaliyev
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Ramil Hasanov
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Naila Sultanova
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Lale Ibrahimli
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Narmin Guliyeva
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/pmf.13(2).2024.05
Public and Municipal Finance Volume 13, 2024 Issue #2 pp. 44-55 Views: 10183 Downloads: 1157 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe impact of research and development (R&D) expenditure is crucial for understanding contemporary economic development strategies. This study investigates the relationship between R&D spending as a percentage of GDP and economic growth, focusing on the South Caucasus countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia) and Israel, which is notable for its substantial R&D expenditure (5.71% of GDP in 2020). The objective is to evaluate the impact of R&D expenditure on economic development through the application of rigorous empirical methods. By employing a quantitative approach, this study aims to offer a detailed analysis of the impact of R&D investment on economic growth across various countries. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analyzes the association between R&D expenditure and GDP levels. Granger causality tests are utilized to investigate the causal relationships. The results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between R&D expenditure and GDP across all studied countries. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that GDP growth stimulates increased R&D investments in Azerbaijan and Armenia, as evidenced by Granger causality tests. To sum up, this paper underscores the critical role of R&D spending in driving economic development and highlights the necessity for policy initiatives focused on strengthening R&D frameworks.
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Evaluating the effects of IFRS 9 on Jordanian banks’ credit and financial metrics
Banks and Bank Systems Volume 19, 2024 Issue #4 pp. 70-83 Views: 7135 Downloads: 755 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯAdopting International Financial Reporting 9 is critically relevant as it significantly transforms accounting practices, particularly in credit risk management, for banks in Jordan. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the impact of implementing International Financial Reporting 9 on the financial performance and credit risk management practices of Jordanian banks. A quantitative analysis was conducted using the Difference-in-Differences approach and Fixed Effects models on data from 19 banks operating between 2012 and 2022.
The results indicate that the adoption of International Financial Reporting 9 led to a substantial increase in loan loss provisions, with a mean increase of 0.25 (t-value = 18.00). This increase in loan loss provisions negatively affected profitability metrics such as Return on Assets and Return on Equity, which showed mean decreases of 0.0857 (t-value = 4.22) post-implementation. Despite the negative impact on profitability, the findings also highlight improvements in financial transparency and stability due to more accurate credit risk assessment.
While the adoption of International Financial Reporting 9 imposes operational and financial challenges, it enhances the robustness and clarity of financial reporting in Jordanian banks. -
The moderating role of firm size and interest rate in capital structure of the firms: selected sample from sugar sector of Pakistan
Sarfraz Hussain
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Abdul Quddus
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Pham Phat Tien
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Muhammad Rafiq
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Drahomíra Pavelková
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(4).2020.29
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 17, 2020 Issue #4 pp. 341-355 Views: 6199 Downloads: 1122 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe selection of financing is a top priority for businesses, particularly in short- and long-term investment decisions. Mixing debt and equity leads to decisions on the financial structure for businesses. This research analyzes the moderate position of company size and the interest rate in the capital structure over six years (2013–2018) for 29 listed Pakistani enterprises operating in the sugar market. This research employed static panel analysis and dynamic panel analysis on linear and nonlinear regression methods. The capital structure included debt to capital ratio, non-current liabilities, plus current liabilities to capital as a dependent variable. Independent variables were profitability, firm size, tangibility, Non-Debt Tax Shield, liquidity, and macroeconomic variables were exchange rates and interest rates. The investigation reported that profitability, firm size, and Non-Debt Tax Shield were significant and negative, while tangibility and interest rates significantly and positively affected debt to capital ratio. This means the sugar sector has greater financial leverage to manage the funding obligations for the better performance of firms. Therefore, the outcomes revealed that the moderators have an important influence on capital structure.

