Digital governance, systemic shocks, and banking sector integrity in transition economies
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(3).2026.17
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Article InfoVolume 21 2026, Issue #3, pp. 261–279
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Type of the article: Research article
Abstract
In transition economies, banking sector integrity is a critical prerequisite for economic resilience against exogenous shocks. This study evaluates the direct and indirect transmission channels through which public digital governance and systemic crisis shocks relate to banking stability and financial inclusion across 22 transition economies. Utilizing structural equation modeling (SEM) and path analysis based on annual panel data from 2003 to 2024 – supplemented by latent factor analysis, Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests, and post-estimation Wald tests – we analyze structural macro-level associations. Empirical results show that the static factor association between digital governance and banking stability is positive but marginally significant (β = 4.102, p = 0.079). In short-run dynamic first-difference specifications, no statistically significant immediate responsiveness is observed (β = 0.027, p = 0.516). Concurrently, improved banking stability significantly co-moves with financial inclusion (β = 0.042, p = 0.008), driven primarily by non-performing loan suppression (λ = −3.684, p = 0.018) and corruption control (λ = 0.034, p = 0.006). Systemic crisis shocks persistently depress both banking stability (β = −0.130, p = 0.009) and citizen financial engagement (β = −0.027, p < 0.001). Post-estimation Wald tests confirm cross-regional slope homogeneity (χ2(1) = 0.48, p = 0.487 for governance-to-stability; χ2(1) = 0.03, p = 0.855 for stability-to-inclusion). Contrary to conventional assumptions, public digital governance does not act as an immediate countercyclical shock absorber, highlighting the necessity of pairing digital reforms with long-term structural policies.
Acknowledgments
Oleksii Zakharkin’s contribution to this article was prepared as part of a research project funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, titled “GovTech for Ukraine: A Digital, Secure, Transparent, and Equitable State in Times of War and Post-War Reconstruction” (registration number: 0126U000544).
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G21 G32 O16 O38
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References67
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Tables9
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Figures0
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- Table 1. Periodization of macroeconomic and local shocks and their classification in the stress resilience assessment model
- Table 2. Descriptive statistics of key financial and governance indicators (2003–2024)
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- Table 5. Baseline static SEM model (latent factor specifications in levels)
- Table 6. Results of the lag* SEM model (DGI → BSII → RFIEI) on the average values
- Table 7. Robustness analysis of short-run dynamic effects across alternative SEM specifications (L0–L3)
- Table 8. Effects of digital governance (DGI) and crisis periods (D_Crisis) on banking stability (BSII) and revealed financial inclusion and engagement (RFIEI)
- Table 9. Structural effects of the SEM model by regional groups
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