Yevhen Bublyk

The relevance of trust in the central bank is determined by the rapid growth of the gap between the expectations of a regulator and market participants regardless of the reforms carried out by the NBU. Therefore, the need to use the “non-traditional” monetary policy instruments has enhanced the role of verbal interventions in the context of inflation targeting. The aim of the article is to ground that trust causes adequate rational behavior of the market participants in response to the central bank’s communication policy. The type of this research is an explanatory research method. As determined, trust is the necessary condition for the effectiveness of the central bank’s communication strategy and it favors the achievement of proclaimed objectives. It is established that although since 2014 the NBU activated verbal interventions as an additional instrument to anchor expectations, the increase of transparency does not prompt the trust because of the lack of confidence of citizens in the NBU and high level of stress in the domestic financial sector. It is emphasized that the pursuit of inflation targeting requires expanded communication to gather the expectations of economic agents. The NBU, in its communication policy concerning the economic climate, underlines devaluation expectations, the exchange rate and explanations on the discount rate. However, the deviation of expected enterprises’ exchange rate from the actual exchange rate, growing velocity of money circulation against the declining share of funds involved in the banking system, low monetization level and low penetration of financial services evidence the distrust in monetary policy.

The purpose of the paper is to analyze current trends in the gas futures market and the prerequisites for their spreading in Ukraine. The analysis is based on scientific research results, search query time series provided by Google Trends, and statistical databases of derivative markets. The paper reveals the trends in the reshaping of the commodity derivatives market after 2008 in favor of commodity derivatives and the fast-growing volume of gas futures in the EU after 2017. The dual reason for these trends comes from the growing energy challenges and the tightening of financial derivatives regulation. Both reasons depend on real economic activity. This determines the presence of economic prerequisites for the spread of gas futures in the world.
The paper identifies the main institutional prerequisites for the spread of gas futures in Ukraine: an active gas exchange with growing volume of the spot trading and a situational factor of the energy market reforming. Initiatives of the gas market liberalization in Ukraine correspond to the energy market reform in EU. The identified trends, prerequisites, advantages and obstacles for the spread of gas futures allow to generalize proposals for state regulation, such as organizing the Ukrainian energy market as a hub to attract participants from other countries, as well as supporting the spread of gas futures on the capital market through the implementation of clearing mechanisms.

Acknowledgment
The paper was funded as part of the “Determination of institutional conditions for the development of the exchange segment of the gas market” research project (No. 0122U002205), conducted at the State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”.

Establishing institutional arrangements for regulating gas markets toward price convergence is one of the crucial integrational factors. The strategy of the firm and economic development management depends on it. The paper aims to assess the characteristics of price convergence on the natural gas markets of the Eastern European region. This region is relevant for Ukraine in a number of parameters. The assessment was made based on Eurostat data for different groups of consumers, excluding taxes, using the standard deviation detection method of price convergence for 15 countries in 2007–2020.
Despite the revealed generally positive price convergence on the natural gas markets in the considered countries after 2014, obtained results showed three points that highlight the heterogeneous structure of the process. First, an even movement toward a single price is detected in groups of large households (the standard price deviation of the price decreased in 2014–2020 from 2.7 to 1.9 euro per Giga Joule or 1.5 times) and medium industrial enterprises (the standard deviation decreased from 1.0-1.7 to 0.6-1.1 or 1.5-1.8 times). Second, the prices for the largest industrial enterprises in considered countries approached the fastest (the deviation decreased from 2.0 to 0.5). Third, in the segment of small enterprises, the deviation even increased from 2.1 to 2.2 (1.05 times). This result highlights the gap in the institutional mechanisms of European integration and sources of uncertainty for the small firms’ management.

Acknowledgment
The paper was funded as a part of the “Determination of institutional conditions for the development of the exchange segment of the gas market” research project (No. 0122U002205), conducted at the State Institution Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine.

The pandemic and wartime in Ukraine confirmed the importance of cashless payments for financial stability. The purpose of the paper is to examine the effect of technological infrastructure and financial access factors on cashless economy development. The impact of the infrastructure factor is assessed in case of Ukraine, using NBU’s data on payment infrastructure during 2001–2022. The hypothesis of the boosting effect of financial access towards a cashless economy has been tested using the method of correlation between M0/M3 and different indicators of financial access (usage of essential technologies, financial services) based on data of World Bank, IMF, and Triple-A in 2021.
The study’s results show that globally there is an almost linear relationship between the number of open financial accounts and the increase in the level of cashless (0.954). It is also revealed that the rise of the share of the population making electronic payments decreases the share of cash in the economy. It is determined that the spread of the crypto-assets has a significant impact on the reduction of cash in the economy (an increase in the share of the population operating with cryptocurrencies by 1% reduces the share of cash by 0.5%). Regarding regulatory policies, it is proposed to stimulate the coverage of the population with open financial accounts, making mandatory payments with electronic payment systems and developing their infrastructure.

Assessing the effectiveness of the inflation targeting framework via the interest rate channel remains crucial in the current monetary policy debate. For Ukraine, the relevance of this discussion is enhanced by the adoption by the National Bank of a rigid inflation targeting policy since 2016, as well as by the challenges of price stability during war. The aim of the study is to identify how the discount rate affects the money market rates and how this affects inflation in Ukraine. Employing a VAR model on monthly data spanning 2016 – Q1 2022, the analysis demonstrates weak empirical evidence for the interest rate channel effectiveness. The impulse response indicates that the discount rate’s initial effect does not provide long-term inflation dynamics control. Variance decomposition analysis highlights the minimal influence of the NBU’s discount rate, primarily evident in the refinancing rate, followed by its impact on the rate of term deposits made by individuals, followed by the inflation, followed by the rate of new loans granted to residents, and finally the rate of government bond yields. Addressing the limitations of a rigid inflation targeting approach, the study recommends adopting a balanced approach, considering both price stability supported by exchange rate control measures and fostering economic growth. Additionally, a viable strategy for deepening the financial sector should be developed.

The rapid spread of cryptocurrencies is one of the most relevant trends today. One of the significant risks of their spread is the increase in energy consumption, which has a negative impact on the environment due to carbon emissions. This requires the development of a scientific toolkit for assessing relationships and predicting the impact of cryptocurrencies on energy consumption, which is the aim of this paper.
With the correlational regression analysis, the model of the dependence of spending on IT sector, energy consumption of Bitcoin, Ethereum and global capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was conducted, based on statistical data from Statista.com, Сoinmarketcap.com and International Data Corporation. To check the possible relationship, tests for the adequacy of the results obtained (Fisher’s test, Student’s t-test) confirmed the correctness of coefficients for independent variables.
The results showed a significant direct correlation (Multiple R is 95%) of spending on IT sector, energy consumption and global capitalization of the cryptocurrency market. The established relationships allowed predicting that Bitcoin energy consumption may reach 142 Terawatt hours per year in 2026. And its impact on environment by mining in 2022 was at least 27.4 Mt of CO2 emission.
As a proposal, a conclusion was made on the expediency of linking mining to the use of certain sources of electricity production, such as “residual” natural gas, nuclear power, renewable energy sources. The obtained results and conclusions may be used as a basis for political decisions in the field of energy efficiency and climate change mitigation.