Gulmira Galymkyzy

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Intensifying urbanization has created significant social, economic, and environmental sustainability challenges. The study aims to analyze the sustainable development of urban agglomerations in Kazakhstan. Five urban agglomerations (Aktobe, Almaty, Astana, Karaganda, and Shymkent) are evaluated using our methodological framework, which involves social, economic, and environmental sub-indices and their aggregation into an integral Urban Agglomeration Sustainability Index interpreted according to our normalized scale. The analysis utilizes 21 indicators from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, covering the period from 2016 to 2024. Findings indicate that the population of Kazakhstan’s urban agglomerations increased to 8,885.1 thousand people (27.0%) between 2016 and 2024. Ongoing urbanization is characterized by both polarization and scale effect. Kazakhstan’s urban agglomerations remain in a developing stage, exhibiting mostly quasi-sustainability (level B). In 2024, the Urban Agglomeration Sustainability Index was 18.2 (A) for Astana, 16.2 (B) for Almaty, 14.5 (B) for Karaganda, 13.0 (B) for Aktobe, and 11.1 (B) for Shymkent, out of a maximum of 27. The hierarchy of leaders (Astana and Almaty) and outsiders (Shymkent) has remained stable throughout the period. Functional specialization is evident: Astana demonstrates high social sustainability (7.4, A), Karaganda excels in economic sustainability (7.0, A), and Aktobe leads in environmental sustainability (6.0, A). These results underscore the need for comprehensive, balanced policies that foster simultaneous development across economic, social, and environmental domains, reduce interregional disparities, and establish mechanisms for sustainable growth.