Issue #2 (Volume 13 2024)

Russia’s open aggression against Ukraine has resulted in significant changes across all sectors of the Ukrainian economy and its financial sphere, including financial security. The paper aims to identify the impact of the primary macroeconomic determinants, i.e., military defense spending, non-performing bank loans, exchange rate, foreign debt, and state (total) reserves, on the financial security of Ukraine under martial law. The canonical correlation analysis is employed to assess the strength of the relationship between the above macroeconomic indicators and the level of the state’s financial security. It was found that the reduction of the state’s financial security level in 2022 was 63.9%, explained exactly by the changes in the above macroeconomic determinants after the start of a full-scale invasion. The study determined the degree of influence of each indicator on Ukraine’s financial security level. An increase in the level of military defense spending, non-performing bank loans, hryvnia’s devaluation, and external debt growth had a direct negative impact on Ukraine’s financial security. At the same time, an upsurge in total reserves had an indirect negative impact (through the external debt growth). The research findings confirm the necessity for effective monitoring and management of the macroeconomic indicators to maintain both Ukraine’s financial security and macro-financial stability in order to ensure its’ sustainable economic development during the postwar recovery period.

Acknowledgment
This research is financially supported by the NATO SPS Program “Security of territorial communities: evidence from the Eastern European countries”.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between government revenue and capital expenditures in Jordan from 2003 to 2022, with public debt as the moderating variable. Utilizing data from the Jordanian Ministry of Finance’s final accounts and the Central Bank of Jordan’s reports, the study employed regression analysis techniques in the statistical software E-Views to test the study’s hypotheses. The findings reveal a positive relationship between revenue and capital expenditures, indicating the significance of revenue in determining the level of capital expenditures. Additionally, a positive relationship is observed between public debt and the magnitude of capital expenditures, suggesting that a portion of capital expenditures is covered by government revenues while the remaining portion is financed by public debt. Upon introducing the moderating variable (public debt) into the analysis, the impact of public debt on the relationship between revenue and capital expenditures becomes evident, indicating that public debt strengthens the relationship between revenue and capital expenditures. In light of the study’s findings, the government should focus on enhancing and increasing revenue and financing sources while rationalizing expenditures. Moreover, it should strive to improve its services and infrastructure to attract more investments and reduce public debt.

Fraud is rampant in Indonesia, especially in the public sector, including regional governments. Fraud cases have touched both the central and the lowest levels in the villages, which ensnare many people in the village. This study aims to analyze the influence of the village financial system (Siskeudes application), transparency, and internal control on fraud prevention in village governance in Pinrang District, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. The sample includes village heads, treasurers, and village representative bodies, and it has a total of 51 people. The primary data are obtained from questionnaires using a quantitative approach and a multiple linear regression with the Statistical Product and Service Solution (SPSS) application. The research results show that the coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.657. Thus, the magnitude of the influence of village financial system, transparency, and internal government control on fraud prevention amounts to 65.7%. The results of the study show that the village financial system has a significant positive effect on fraud prevention (p-value = 0.025 < 0.05), transparency has a significant positive effect on fraud prevention (p-value = 0.031 < 0.05), and internal control has a significant positive effect on fraud prevention (p-value = 0.035 < 0.05).

This study aims to analyze how two different types of investments (local domestic and foreign direct investments at the provincial level) and revenues (booked by the provincial governments, general allocation funds, special allocation funds, local taxes, and retribution) affect investment loan decisions by local government banks in Indonesia. The study uses panel data applying ordinary least squares and multiple linear regression. Thus, 144 data were sampled from 2013 to 2021 from 16 local government banks out of Java Island in 21 provinces in Indonesia. The study found that local domestic investment at the provincial level affects investment loan decisions by local government banks. In contrast, foreign direct investment did not affect lending decisions, indicating that local domestic investment contributes to the real local economy at the provincial level. Different results were found in provincial revenues in the form of general and special allocation funds, which negatively affected loan investment decisions, possibly due to provincial revenues utilized to cover the financial deficit and capital expenditure spent chiefly on imported goods. Additionally, local taxes at the provincial level also negatively affect investment loan decisions, possibly due to fluctuations in local tax collection during COVID-19. However, the study found that local retribution contributes to predicting loan investment decisions, suggesting revenue collection by the governments considering local economic conditions. The study findings suggest that provincial governments should direct investments that can impact the local economy and spend their revenues on goods and services that can drive local economic growth.

Acknowledgment
The investment loan made by local government banks, which is associated with local investment and revenue, is part of a research grant project from the Economics and Business Faculty of Hasanuddin University. This project is a result of collaboration with national and international researchers. In carrying out this research, some inputs from people working in local government banks, financial service authorities, and provincial and regency governments are addressed.
Thanks to Ahmadi Usman for secondary data and Syahidah Ulhaq for some application programs enabling mapping literature, as well as Israa Natiq Jabar for supervising the result and applied some inputs in the section of research method.

The impact of research and development (R&D) expenditure is crucial for understanding contemporary economic development strategies. This study investigates the relationship between R&D spending as a percentage of GDP and economic growth, focusing on the South Caucasus countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia) and Israel, which is notable for its substantial R&D expenditure (5.71% of GDP in 2020). The objective is to evaluate the impact of R&D expenditure on economic development through the application of rigorous empirical methods. By employing a quantitative approach, this study aims to offer a detailed analysis of the impact of R&D investment on economic growth across various countries. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analyzes the association between R&D expenditure and GDP levels. Granger causality tests are utilized to investigate the causal relationships. The results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between R&D expenditure and GDP across all studied countries. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that GDP growth stimulates increased R&D investments in Azerbaijan and Armenia, as evidenced by Granger causality tests. To sum up, this paper underscores the critical role of R&D spending in driving economic development and highlights the necessity for policy initiatives focused on strengthening R&D frameworks.

The total fixed capital formation is one of the main and influential determinants of production function through its impact on production costs, competitiveness, and profits. The Iraqi gross domestic product depends on one sector (the oil sector) in financing the government budget, which may lead to crises in case of oil price collapse. Therefore, the study aims to clarify the imbalance in the production function and the real output of the Iraqi economy and to indicate the role of the total fixed capital formation in this imbalance. The econometric methods were used to measure the degree of influence of the total fixed capital formation (independent variable) on the gross domestic product (dependent variable) from 2004 to 2020. The results showed a robust relationship between fixed capital formation and gross domestic product, where the independent variable affects the dependent variable by 4.5%, while the oil sector dominated the total value added by its acquisition of the total fixed capital formation by 47.45%, and the productive sectors of agriculture and industry achieved value added of 3.8%. The study concluded that the distribution of total capital formation by sector has an impact on the gross domestic product. Therefore, it is necessary to distribute the total fixed capital formation to the productive and production-supporting sectors to achieve economic growth and diversify the structure of the gross domestic product.

This paper explores the perceived resilience of russia’s economy under severe sanctions, investigating the potential falsification of economic data to demonstrate the growth. The hypothesis is that the relationship between the official inflation rate and the FMCG deflator index during 2019–2021 significantly differs from that of 2022–2024. Statistical methods, such as correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, and differences tests (e.g., t-tests and Wilcoxon tests), are used along with vector autoregressive (VAR) models and robust linear regressions. The study covers the pre-invasion period (2019–2021) and the post-invasion period (2022–2024), focusing on indicators like the official inflation rate, inflation expectations, CPI, and the FMCG deflator index. Findings reveal a shift from a direct to an inverse correlation between official inflation and the FMCG deflator post-2022, suggesting data manipulation. Pre-2022 models predict inflation 2-3 times higher than both post-2022 models and official statistics, raising concerns about the reliability of russia’s economic data. Further research should explore indirect metrics, such as electricity production and cargo shipments, for additional evidence of data falsification.

Acknowledgments
Alex Plastun gratefully acknowledges financial support from the New Europe College (NEC), the Center for Advanced Study, and Sumy State University.
Anna Vorontsova gratefully acknowledges financial support from Sumy State University.

The quality of financial reporting in village-owned enterprises (VOEs) is critical for ensuring transparency and accountability in local governance. This study explores the impact of education level, training programs, work experience, internal control systems, and information technology on the quality of financial reports in VOEs. The objective is to determine how these factors influence financial reporting quality to support effective local governance. The paper involves a sample of 120 VOE managers and employs quantitative analysis to examine the relationships between these factors and the quality of financial reporting in Indonesia. The results indicate that higher education levels, comprehensive training programs, and extensive work experience positively affect the quality of financial reporting. Specifically, the study finds that educated personnel and well-structured training programs enhance the accuracy and reliability of financial reporting. In contrast, the anticipated positive impact of IT utilization on financial reporting quality was not observed, suggesting that issues related to IT infrastructure and integration may limit its effectiveness. Additionally, robust internal control systems significantly improve the quality of financial reports. Overall, the analysis emphasizes the importance of investing in education, training, and internal controls to enhance financial reporting quality in VOEs. The findings highlight the need for further research into the challenges of IT integration to fully harness its benefits for financial transparency.

Tax collection is a source of financing expenses for governments, including the mitigation of the social and economic impacts of diverse disruptions. This applies to Peru, where the amount of corporate tax collected during the Covid-19 pandemic showed a notable variation. This study aims to analyze the impact of various tax management initiatives of the Peruvian government on tax collection during the pandemic from 2019 to 2021. The methodology employs a quantitative approach with a non-experimental research design and longitudinal measurement. Documentary analysis was applied to examine data composed of annual statistical reports relevant to the tax administration organization in Peru, videos, documentaries, conferences, and information related to tax collection. The findings clearly show a fiscal slowdown in 2020 as a consequence of the pandemic; however, considerable growth in tax revenues across different tax regimes, geographic areas of the country, economic sectors, and categories of different taxes collected were reported in 2021. This outcome results from the implementation of various fiscal tax relief measures in the early stages of the pandemic, with their effect being observed in 2021. Thus, it is argued that these measures contributed to the reactivation of the business economy in Peru, improving the country’s economic situation.

The efficient allocation of public financial resources to energy consumption in Portuguese municipalities is one of the most discussed topics in public finance, given the growing relevance of sustainability and energy efficiency. The study analyzes how public spending affects energy efficiency through a combination of data analysis and hypotheses testing to assess the relationship between public spending and energy consumption. The methodology includes DEA analysis of the financial data and energy consumption of the municipalities, as well as the definition of hypotheses to determine the possible correlations between investment and efficiency. The results suggest that, in general, municipalities with higher levels of public spending have lower levels of energy efficiency. Meanwhile, municipalities with smaller budgets and fewer resources tend to be more efficient. The DEA analysis of the data suggests that energy efficiency is not directly related to the size and/or economic aptitude of municipalities but rather to their ability to adopt new technologies and more efficient budgetary and financial management practices. The hypotheses tested show varying levels of efficiency in public spending in relation to energy consumption. The study also concludes that public policies should focus on technological innovation and benchmarking to improve energy efficiency. The analysis suggests that collaboration between municipalities and the adoption of best practices are essential to tackle regional disparities and promote energy sustainability.

Acknowledgments
This article is financed by Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa [Polytechnic Institute of Lisbon].

This study investigates the factors influencing taxpayer compliance, using tax morale as a mediating variable. A quantitative approach was employed, utilizing primary data gathered through questionnaires. The sample consisted of 280 small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) taxpayers from Surabaya, Sidoarjo, and Mojokerto, Indonesia, who were interviewed either in person or via online surveys. Multiple linear regression and path analysis were conducted to evaluate the data. The findings reveal that perceived fairness and trust in the government significantly enhance tax morale, which, in turn, positively influences taxpayer compliance. Furthermore, tax morale was found to mediate the relationship between both perceived fairness and government trust with taxpayer compliance, demonstrating the importance of psychological factors in fostering tax adherence. However, the study found that the taxpayer environment and religiosity, when considered as control variables, did not have a significant impact on compliance. This indicates that while personal perceptions and trust are influential, external social factors and religious beliefs are less critical. These insights emphasize that when the issue of equity and trust in government prevails, compliance will increase among SME taxpayers. These findings suggest that by prioritizing taxpayer trust and fairness, policymakers can enhance budget predictability and efficiency in public resource distribution.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the drivers of domestic revenue mobilization in Somalia by applying the autoregressive distributed lag model, where monthly data are used. The study assessed whether external grants reduce the incentive of the Somali fiscal authorities to mobilize domestic revenue and whether the operating expenditures significantly explain the domestic revenue mobilization effort more than other expenditures, including the expenditures on the social assistance benefits. The study found that external grants reduce the government’s incentive to enhance domestic revenue in the short and long run, and the operational expenditures are more significant for the domestic revenue mobilization effort than other expenditures, including the social assistance benefits. The study also found that COVID-19 has a significant negative impact on domestic revenue, as the pandemic hit Somalia, domestic revenue dropped by 8% in 2020, falling to approximately USD 211.2 million from USD 230.3 million in 2019. This study does not recommend the reduction or termination of the external grants since it is a critical support for Somalia’s state-building efforts. However, it recommends improvement in the quality of grant management procedures and urgent reconsideration of expenditure priorities by giving greater importance to development expenditures over recurrent expenditures.

The impact of social transfers on income inequality and poverty remains a subject of debate, particularly regarding threshold effects, design, and integration with taxation and labor market dynamics. Using a linear regression model, the study analyzes the dependency of the Gini index on the percentage of social transfers in the average household’s monthly resources, the percentage of households with income below the median, and the percentage of the employed populace in Ukraine from 2010 to 2021. The results show that a 1% increase in social transfers in household income reduces income inequality by 0.13%, a 1% increase in employment decreases income inequality by 0.1%, whereas a 1% rise in poverty leads to a 0.34% increase in income inequality. In line with the results from EU and OECD countries, this study confirms that increasing the share of social transfers in household incomes contributes to the mitigation of income inequality in Ukraine. However, this remains valid only if the share of social transfers in households’ total income rises proportionally. The income and expenditure patterns of Ukrainian households, along with the Gini index, reflect poverty, which is partially mitigated by social transfers; however, their effectiveness is constrained by offsetting inflation. The rise in household incomes without a corresponding reduction in poverty suggests that employment is no longer the predominant factor in poverty alleviation in Ukraine.

Acknowledgment
This paper is funded as part of the project “Financial tools for reducing economic inequality in Ukraine” research project (No. 0124U002254), conducted at the State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”.

Considering Ukraine’s corruption scandals at all levels of public governance, combating corruption and enhancing transparency have become a pivotal factor in maintaining the trust of Ukrainian citizens and foreign partners in central and local authorities. It is also an essential prerequisite for Ukraine’s prospective membership in the EU and the allocation of financial assistance from external donors. The study aims to examine how transparency in local governance influences the level of corruption in regional cities of Ukraine. The paper examines how transparency in local authorities relates to different types of corruption, including bribery within municipal services, healthcare, and other public sectors. Utilizing panel data from 24 Ukrainian cities collected between 2017 and 2020 (all-Ukrainian sociological municipal survey and project ‘Transparent, Financially Sound and Competitive Local Governments in Ukraine’), the study employs both random and fixed-effects panel regression analyses to assess the impact of various governance indicators on corruption levels across different sectors, including municipal services, healthcare, and education. The findings suggest that higher transparency of the local authorities is generally associated with lower levels of bribery in the housing and communal services sector (estimation coefficient = –0.204226), in registration and licensing institutions (–0.5353756), in healthcare institutions (–0.2032171), and experience of bribing local authorities (–0.2505674). The analysis concludes that enhancing transparency may significantly reduce corrupt practices within local government operations, thereby strengthening public trust and bringing Ukraine closer to meeting European Union standards.

Acknowledgment
Serhiy Lyeonov, Serhii Drozd, and Yaroslаv Reshetniak thank the project 0123U101945 “National security of Ukraine through prevention of financial fraud and money laundering: war and post-war challenges” for carrying out their part of this research.
This study was funded by the European Union grant “NextGenerationEU through the Recovery and Resilience Plan for Slovakia” (No. 09I03-03-V01-00130) and project VEGA – 1/0392/23 “Changes in the approach to the creation of companies’ distribution management concepts influenced by the effects of social and economic crises caused by the global pandemic and increased security risks.”

Hungary’s utility sector, encompassing district heating, water services, waste management, and public transport, has experienced notable shifts from municipal to privatized ownership and back to community control between 2006 and 2022. The purpose of this study is to assess the financial performance and crisis resilience of municipally owned utility companies in Hungary between 2006 and 2022, with a particular focus on the impact of state price regulation and the role of economic cycles. The regulation was intended to ensure service affordability but imposed significant constraints on financial flexibility and investment capacity. The study targeted a sample of Hungarian local government companies, with two distinguished periods (2006–2013 and 2014–2022), examining seven different financial indicators (formulas), e.g., EBITDA, ROA, etc., with variance analysis and correlation analyses. These revealed that while companies operated effectively during periods of economic growth, the post-2020 polycrisis, characterized by challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and rising energy prices, exposed vulnerabilities, especially in the district heating sector. Financial indicators, including EBITDA margin and liquidity ratios, showed mixed results, with profitability improving in certain sectors but liquidity and return on assets (ROA) declining, indicating stress on short-term solvency. The paper suggests that while price regulation maintained affordability, it limited the capacity for swift adaptation during crises. To enhance resilience, the study recommends incorporating more adaptive regulatory frameworks and investing in renewable energy and operational efficiency. These changes would help municipally owned utility companies better withstand economic fluctuations and maintain service continuity, contributing to long-term financial and service stability.

Acknowledgment
Project no. TKP2021-NKTA-51 has been implemented with support from the Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the TKP2021-NKTA funding scheme.
This study was done in Széll Kálmán Public Finance Lab of Ludovika University of Public Service, Budapest.

In Indonesia, digital platforms in tax administration services have been implemented for more than a decade. This study aims to investigate whether digital platforms for motor vehicle tax administration services can increase local government tax revenues. Then, it is continued by testing the moderating role of motor vehicle tax revenue targets and online service information. Data were collected from the Unit Penerimaan Pendapatan Daerah (UPPD) Central Java – Indonesia. Observations focused on motor vehicle tax services carried out during the 2018–2022 period in 37 district and city UPPDs. The analysis uses GLS regression, which was developed with modeling regression analysis (MRA). The study results show that implementation of digital platforms in motor vehicle tax administration services can increase local government tax revenues. This relationship will be further strengthened if there are online information services, both circular and standby. Further investigation results revealed that relying on tax revenue targets to strengthen the relationship between digital platforms in tax administration services and local government tax revenues is not viable.

Acknowledgment
This study is supported by the Direktur Riset, Teknologi dan Pengabdian Masyarakat (DRTPM) based on decree number 108/E5/PG.02.00.PL/2024 and contract number 007/LL6/PB/AL.04/2024, 196.43/A.3-III/LRI/VI/2024.

Since the outbreak of the russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s public debt has risen sharply, and debt sustainability turned out to be a matter of concern. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ukraine, focusing on probabilistic judgments about the trajectory of public debt, the government’s gross financing needs in the 2025–2028 period, and essential policy measures to prevent an unsustainable debt situation. The DSA incorporates references to quantitative debt-related benchmarks and assessments of performing a debt treatment and changing the structure of budget deficit financing. Four medium-term scenarios are run: a baseline scenario, a negative scenario, a positive macro-scenario, and a policy shock scenario. The first three scenarios yield public debt stocks from 94.8% to 128.8% of GDP in 2028, above the intermediate threshold of 82% and far above the final threshold of 65%. Even under the baseline projections, public debt trajectory and gross financing needs magnitudes deviate considerably from the benchmark levels. Only the policy shock scenario is compatible with ensuring public debt sustainability, being conditional on a substantial extension of foreign grants, and applying a significant haircut through the second debt restructuring. The results suggest that avoiding public debt crisis while meeting recovery and reconstruction needs would require raising the share of grants up to around 45% in the structure of foreign official financing and debt reduction by at least 50% in the framework of new foreign debt restructuring, covering official bilateral debt and euro-bonds’ debt.

Acknowledgment
This study is published as an output of the EURIZON project “Ukraine’s Foreign Financing Needs and the EU’s Role in Restoring External Sustainability and Long-Term Growth of the Ukrainian Economy,” which is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 871072.