Relationship between macroeconomic variables and primary public offerings in Peru

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Primary public offerings (PPOs) play an essential role in capital markets by providing financing for projects that contribute directly to a country’s economic development. Macroeconomic conditions have a significant influence on the effectiveness of these offers since they affect the government’s ability to issue sovereign bonds and manage its debt efficiently. Therefore, the present study seeks to determine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and PPOs in the capital market in Peru during the period 2019–2023, employing a quantitative methodology, non-experimental design, basic type, which uses SPSS software for Pearson correlation analysis. The results show that the impact of macroeconomic variables on PPOs is diverse. A weak inverse relationship was identified between public spending and PPOs (correlation of –0.140), suggesting that increases in public spending could discourage the issuance of PPOs. In addition, a moderately strong inverse relationship was found between fiscal deficit and PPOs (correlation of –0.620), indicating that higher fiscal deficits could have a significant negative effect on PPO issuance. A weak negative relationship was also observed between non-financial public sector debt and PPOs (correlation of –0.215), implying that high levels of debt may limit the ability of the capital market to develop new offerings. These findings suggest that, although macroeconomic variables impact PPOs, the magnitude of their influence varies. Furthermore, macroeconomic stability is key to capital market development, given its effect on sovereign bond issuance.

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    • Figure 1. Non-financial expenditures of the general government of Peru in millions of soles, 2019–2023
    • Table 1. Issuance of Peruvian sovereign bonds in 2019–2023
    • Table 2. Non-financial expenditures of the general government of Peru, 2019–2023
    • Table 3. Fiscal deficit in the last five study periods (2019–2023)
    • Table 4. Peru’s non-financial public sector total debt
    • Table 5. Macroeconomic variables, 2019–2023
    • Table 6. Pearson’s correlation for the sovereign bonds and non-financial expenditures of the general government of Peru (millions of soles)
    • Table 7. Pearson’s correlation for the sovereign bonds and Peru’s fiscal deficit (2019–2023)
    • Table 8. Pearson’s correlation for the sovereign bonds and non-financial public sector debt (millions of soles) of Peru
    • Conceptualization
      Celeste Lucero Barzola-Castro, Arthur Giuseppe Serrato-Cherres
    • Formal Analysis
      Celeste Lucero Barzola-Castro, Franklin Cordova-Buiza
    • Investigation
      Celeste Lucero Barzola-Castro, Franklin Cordova-Buiza, Arthur Giuseppe Serrato-Cherres
    • Resources
      Celeste Lucero Barzola-Castro
    • Software
      Celeste Lucero Barzola-Castro
    • Visualization
      Celeste Lucero Barzola-Castro
    • Writing – original draft
      Celeste Lucero Barzola-Castro, Arthur Giuseppe Serrato-Cherres
    • Data curation
      Franklin Cordova-Buiza
    • Methodology
      Franklin Cordova-Buiza
    • Validation
      Franklin Cordova-Buiza
    • Writing – review & editing
      Franklin Cordova-Buiza
    • Funding acquisition
      Arthur Giuseppe Serrato-Cherres
    • Project administration
      Arthur Giuseppe Serrato-Cherres
    • Supervision
      Arthur Giuseppe Serrato-Cherres