Impact of Covid-19 on the budget security of the national economy: a forecast for Ukraine

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Nowadays, it is necessary to consider the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the state of the national economy, in particular on the budget system. This paper examines the essence of budget security and identifies the key threats to budget security in the current context. The methodological aspects of calculating Ukraine’s budget security key indicators (their list, criteria for the use of weighting factors, range of characteristic values of budget security levels) are investigated and their state in 2015–2019 is assessed. The influence of quarantine measures on the level of budget security in Ukraine is determined. Analysis of the current state of budget security and development prospects of Ukraine, determined by the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, made it possible to predict Ukraine’s budget security indicators for 2020–2021 and define prospects for changing budget security of Ukraine until 2024. Based on the results of forecasting, the need was identified for planning and implementing urgent anti-crisis measures in the field of managing the country’s budget security, as well as ensuring the consistency of the norms of budget and tax legislation in integration with effective measures to support the socio-economic environment of Ukraine.

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    • Figure 1. Range of eigenvalues of budget security levels
    • Figure 2. Actual (2015–2019) and forecast (2020–2021) values of Ukraine’s budget security indicators
    • Figure 3. Dynamics of the integrated indicator of Ukraine’s budget security in 2015–2023
    • Table 1. List of indicators for calculating the integrated index of the country’s budget security and their weighing coefficients
    • Table 2. Ukraine’s budget security indicators in 2015–2019
    • Table 3. Changes in the main predictors of Ukraine’s budget security according to state and world economic organizations in 2020–2021
    • Conceptualization
      Victoria Strilets, Olha Prokopenko, Volodymyr Orlov
    • Investigation
      Victoria Strilets
    • Methodology
      Victoria Strilets, Olha Prokopenko, Volodymyr Orlov
    • Project administration
      Victoria Strilets, Olha Prokopenko, Volodymyr Orlov
    • Resources
      Victoria Strilets, Olha Prokopenko, Volodymyr Orlov
    • Validation
      Victoria Strilets, Olha Prokopenko, Volodymyr Orlov
    • Visualization
      Victoria Strilets, Olha Prokopenko, Volodymyr Orlov
    • Writing – original draft
      Victoria Strilets, Olha Prokopenko, Volodymyr Orlov
    • Writing – review & editing
      Victoria Strilets, Olha Prokopenko, Volodymyr Orlov
    • Formal Analysis
      Olha Prokopenko
    • Data curation
      Volodymyr Orlov