Does employment structure drive trade in services and financial service exports?

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The growing dominance of services in global trade raises the question of whether employment structure and labor market participation shape countries’ ability to compete in international service markets, particularly in financial and insurance services. This study examines how the service-sector employment structure and labor market participation affect trade in services, with particular attention to insurance and financial services exports, across countries at different income levels. Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 2010 to 2023, the study analyzes two dimensions of service trade: total trade in services as a share of GDP and insurance and financial services as a share of service exports. The results reveal that total service exports increase with higher labor participation (β = 0.0157, p < 0.001), but decrease as the service employment share rises (β = –0.0048, p < 0.05). GDP per capita and FDI are positive drivers (β = 0.217; β = 0.013), whereas the rule of law is negatively associated (β = –0.211). In insurance and financial services, labor participation reduces specialization (β = –0.0059, p < 0.001), and service employment is only weakly positive (β = 0.0027, p ≈ 0.07). Income-group results show heterogeneity: service employment is strongly negative and FDI positive in low and lower-middle income economies (x1 β = –0.015/–0.019; x5 up to β = 0.039), whereas service employment becomes positive in high-income countries (β = 0.022, p < 0.05); here, higher income and participation reduce the relative weight of financial services (β = –0.212; β = –0.0109).

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    • Table 1. Panel regression results: Determinants of service exports
    • Table 2. FE estimates with robust standard errors
    • Table 3. Determinants of service trade by World Bank income group (FE with Driscoll–Kraay SE)
    • Table 4. FE and RE regression results
    • Table 5. Robust fixed-effects estimates with clustered and Driscoll–Kraay corrections
    • Table 6. FE estimates by World Bank income group (Driscoll–Kraay SEs)
    • Table B1. Descriptive statistics of variables for calculations of the interconnection of trade in services and employment in services
    • Table B2. Descriptive statistics of variables for calculations of the interconnection of insurance and financial services as a share of service exports and employment in services
    • Conceptualization
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Vugar Nazarov, Ziyafat Habibova, Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva, Rasul Teymurlu
    • Formal Analysis
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Vugar Nazarov, Ziyafat Habibova, Rasul Teymurlu
    • Funding acquisition
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Ziyafat Habibova
    • Investigation
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Ziyafat Habibova, Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva
    • Methodology
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Vugar Nazarov, Ziyafat Habibova
    • Project administration
      Khatira Huseynova, Vugar Nazarov, Ziyafat Habibova, Konul Valiyeva
    • Supervision
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Vugar Nazarov
    • Validation
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva, Rasul Teymurlu
    • Writing – original draft
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Vugar Nazarov, Ziyafat Habibova, Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva, Rasul Teymurlu
    • Writing – review & editing
      Khatira Huseynova, Sakina Hajiyeva, Vugar Nazarov, Ziyafat Habibova, Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva, Rasul Teymurlu
    • Data curation
      Vugar Nazarov, Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva, Rasul Teymurlu
    • Software
      Ziyafat Habibova, Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva, Rasul Teymurlu
    • Visualization
      Ziyafat Habibova, Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva, Rasul Teymurlu
    • Resources
      Rasim Guliyev, Konul Valiyeva, Rasul Teymurlu