Impact of international trade on regional ecosystem sustainability: Evidence from Ukraine amid war

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The study aims to examine the impact of international trade on the sustainability of regional ecosystems in Ukraine, particularly amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The paper applies econometric modeling, factor analysis, cluster analysis, and geographic information systems (GIS) for spatial analysis. Sustainability indicators include environmental resilience indicators (carbon emissions, water quality), economic stability metrics (GDP per capita, investment in green technologies), and social sustainability factors (employment rate, access to education and healthcare). Results indicate that a 1% increase in exports enhances sustainability indicators by 0.9%, while a 1% rise in imports or demographic density reduces these indices by 0.94% and 0.75%, respectively. Cluster analysis identifies five groups of regions with varying ecological resilience, revealing critical vulnerabilities in southern and eastern Ukraine where resilience indices are below 0.5. War actions exacerbate these issues, causing infrastructure destruction, soil and water degradation, and pollutant emissions ranging from 152.5 to 16,311.4 thousand tons. Recommendations include scaling up environmental protection investments by 20% (from the current 5,965–165,228 thousand UAH) and integrating sustainability standards into international trade policies to harmonize economic activities with environmental management in crisis and post-war recovery contexts.

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    • Figure 1. K-means clustering of regions of Ukraine depending on the level of international trade and environmental sustainability
    • Figure 2. Matrix of spatial analysis of the impact of international trade on the ecosystem
    • Table 1. Calculation methodology and key components
    • Table 2. Factor analysis for calculating the sustainable development indicator
    • Table 3. Regression analysis of the dependence of ecosystem sustainability on the influence of international trade
    • Table 4. Members of cluster 1 and distances from the respective cluster center
    • Table 5. Members of cluster 2 and distances from the respective cluster center
    • Table 6. Members of cluster 3 and distances from the respective cluster center
    • Table 7. Members of cluster 4 and distances from the respective cluster center
    • Table 8. Members of cluster 5 and distances from the respective cluster center
    • Table 9. Discriminant analysis
    • Table A1. Key economic and environmental indicators by region
    • Conceptualization
      Valeriia Shcherbak, Oleh Kolodiziev
    • Investigation
      Valeriia Shcherbak, Ilona Androshchuk
    • Project administration
      Valeriia Shcherbak, Volodymyr Berehovyi
    • Writing – review & editing
      Valeriia Shcherbak, Oleh Kolodiziev, Ihor Krupka, Ilona Androshchuk, Tetiana Kolodizieva
    • Methodology
      Oleh Kolodiziev, Tetiana Kolodizieva
    • Resources
      Oleh Kolodiziev, Tetiana Kolodizieva, Volodymyr Berehovyi
    • Supervision
      Oleh Kolodiziev, Ihor Krupka
    • Visualization
      Oleh Kolodiziev, Kseniia Vzhytynska
    • Writing – original draft
      Oleh Kolodiziev, Kseniia Vzhytynska, Volodymyr Berehovyi
    • Data curation
      Ihor Krupka, Kseniia Vzhytynska
    • Funding acquisition
      Ihor Krupka, Kseniia Vzhytynska, Ilona Androshchuk, Tetiana Kolodizieva
    • Software
      Ihor Krupka, Tetiana Kolodizieva
    • Validation
      Ilona Androshchuk, Volodymyr Berehovyi