Impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on economic growth: Empirical insights from Nepal

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This study aims to examine the impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on Nepal’s long-term economic growth. It uses secondary data from 1989/90 to 2021/22 collected from various economic surveys of the Ministry of Finance of Nepal. Descriptive and explanatory research designs are used in this study. The trace, max-eigen tests, and fully modified least square methods search the long-run co-integration and impact between response and predictor variables. Trace and max-eigen tests consistently point toward the long-run co-integration between dependent (gross domestic product) and independent (import, export, total trade, and foreign direct investment) variables. Exports and imports are found to be negative and statistically significant to explain Nepal’s economic growth. One unit increase in exports results in a 0.748 unit decrease in Nepal’s economic growth. Similarly, total trade volume and foreign direct investment positively impact economic growth. Each unit increase in foreign direct investment results in a 0.0036 unit increase in GDP in Nepal. Foreign trade has a multiplier effect on Nepal’s GDP growth. The 76.35 percent variation in economic growth depends upon total foreign trade volume, exports, imports, and foreign direct investment. To promote sustainable economic growth, policymakers should prioritize policies encouraging increased total foreign trade and foreign direct investment while carefully managing the potential negative impact of excessive reliance on import dynamics.

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    • Figure 1. Condition of gross domestic product, export, import, total foreign trade, and foreign direct investment from F/Y 1989/1990 to 2021/2022
    • Table 1. Measures of central values, dispersion, and distribution of variables
    • Table 2. Correlation matrix of predictor and response variables
    • Table 3. ADF test to check the stationarity
    • Table 4. Trace and max-eigen tests for long-run co-integration
    • Table 5. Fully modified least squares test for long-run effect between variables
    • Conceptualization
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Ganesh Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Data curation
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Formal Analysis
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Ganesh Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Project administration
      Arjun Kumar Dahal
    • Resources
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Ganesh Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Software
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Ganesh Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Supervision
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Visualization
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Ganesh Bhattarai
    • Writing – original draft
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Ganesh Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Writing – review & editing
      Arjun Kumar Dahal, Ganesh Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Funding acquisition
      Ganesh Bhattarai
    • Investigation
      Ganesh Bhattarai
    • Methodology
      Ganesh Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
    • Validation
      Ganesh Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki