COVID-19 and domestic trade in Bulgaria

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Domestic trade is an essential contributor to economic growth and an indicator of the people’s welfare. It is vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis due to the pandemic itself and the government’s measures against it. An accurate estimation of the pandemic influence on domestic trade is needed for effective economic intervention in support of the economic recovery and improvement of the well-being of the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the magnitude and timing of the COVID-19 impact on domestic trade in Bulgaria. The data used in the study covered the period 2000–2020 with monthly data for the indicator “Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria.” This paper employed unit root tests, autocorrelation function analysis, building, estimating, forecasting ARIMA and ARCH models, and intervention analysis. The results revealed that Bulgarian domestic trade followed the difference-stationary process as unit root tests failed to reject the random walk hypothesis. The COVID-19 impact on domestic trade proved to be long-lasting and has permanently decreased its level since March 2020. The timing of the impact coincided with the government’s measures against the pandemic. The drop in the volume of domestic trade was substantial and estimated at 19.3%. Following the nature of domestic trade, determined and decisive intervention is necessary if the Bulgarian government seeks to expand domestic demand and successfully procure economic recovery.

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    • Figure A1. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (Indices, 2015 = 100%)
    • Figure A2. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs)
    • Figure A3. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs)
    • Figure A4. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first differences)
    • Figure A5. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first differences)
    • Figure A6. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, seasonal differences)
    • Figure A7. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, seasonal differences)
    • Figure A8. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
    • Figure A9. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
    • Figure A10. Observed forecast error for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
    • Table A1. Seasonal unit root test
    • Table A2. Estimation results for (5-6) model
    • Table A3. Residuals’ ACF for (5-6) model
    • Table A4. Squared residuals’ ACF for (5-6) model
    • Table A5. Estimation results for (5-6) final model
    • Table A6. Residuals’ ACF for (5-6) final model
    • Table A7. Squared residuals’ ACF for (5-6) final model
    • Conceptualization
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Data curation
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Formal Analysis
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Funding acquisition
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Investigation
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Methodology
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Project administration
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Resources
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Software
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Supervision
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Validation
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Visualization
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Writing – original draft
      Lyubomir Todorov
    • Writing – review & editing
      Lyubomir Todorov