Customer satisfaction management: Exploring temporal changes in nonlinearities in satisfaction formation of skiers

Behavioral components of Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory (PT) were applied to derive an adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in the estimation of merger and acquisition-intensive firms’ expected returns. The premise was that the CAPM – rooted in expected utility theory – is violated by the behavioral biases identified in prospect theory. Kahneman and Tversky’s prospect theory (1979) has demonstrated that weaknesses abound in the viability of classical utility theory predictions. For mergers and acquisitions, firms appear to be isolated from and immune to human error, yet decisions which involve the undertaking of capital-intensive projects are delegated to senior management. These individuals are prone to cognitive biases and personalized risk appetites that may (and often do) compromize attitudes and behavior when it comes to pricing risky ventures. Having established that beta estimates using linear regression are inferior, the CAPM was implemented utilizing beta estimates obtained from the Kalman filter. The results obtained were assessed for their long-term market price predictive accuracy. The authors test the reliability of the CAPM as a predictor of price, observe the rationality of human behavior in capital markets, and attempt to model premiums to adjust CAPM returns to a level that more appropriately accounts for firm specific risk. The researchers show that market participants behave irrationally when assessing M&A firms’ specific risk. Logistic regression coupled with the development of a risk premium was implemented to correct the original Kalman filter returns and was tested for improvements in predictive power.

This paper investigates whether there exists a Bowman paradox on the relationship between risk-return for Vietnamese firms. Data in the annual audited financial statements from 2017 to 2020 of 727 enterprises listed on the Vietnamese stock market are used in this study. The data set is divided into two different groups based on the reference point, which is the average return of the whole market and by industry. Correlation analysis and ordinary least square regression according to cross sectional data were performed in this study. After controlling for size, debt-to-total assets, and debt-to-equity ratios, the research results show that the risk-return relationship of the two groups of firms is mixed and can be explained by prospect theory. There exists Bowman's paradox for a group of firms whose return is below the reference point, these firms tend to seek risk versus return, so their risk-return relationship is negative. In contrast, this relationship is positive for the group of firms whose returns are above the reference point, or which tend to avoid risk. The slope coefficient of the group of enterprises below the reference point compared to the rest of enterprises is 2.5:1, which correctly reflects the ratio of the risk-seeking area to the risk-avoiding area in prospect theory.