Applied prospect theory: assessing the βs of M&A-intensive firms
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(2).2019.20
-
Article InfoVolume 16 2019, Issue #2, pp. 236-248
- 1470 Views
-
145 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Behavioral components of Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory (PT) were applied to derive an adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in the estimation of merger and acquisition-intensive firms’ expected returns. The premise was that the CAPM – rooted in expected utility theory – is violated by the behavioral biases identified in prospect theory. Kahneman and Tversky’s prospect theory (1979) has demonstrated that weaknesses abound in the viability of classical utility theory predictions. For mergers and acquisitions, firms appear to be isolated from and immune to human error, yet decisions which involve the undertaking of capital-intensive projects are delegated to senior management. These individuals are prone to cognitive biases and personalized risk appetites that may (and often do) compromize attitudes and behavior when it comes to pricing risky ventures. Having established that beta estimates using linear regression are inferior, the CAPM was implemented utilizing beta estimates obtained from the Kalman filter. The results obtained were assessed for their long-term market price predictive accuracy. The authors test the reliability of the CAPM as a predictor of price, observe the rationality of human behavior in capital markets, and attempt to model premiums to adjust CAPM returns to a level that more appropriately accounts for firm specific risk. The researchers show that market participants behave irrationally when assessing M&A firms’ specific risk. Logistic regression coupled with the development of a risk premium was implemented to correct the original Kalman filter returns and was tested for improvements in predictive power.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)C55, C58, G1
-
References35
-
Tables3
-
Figures4
-
- Figure 1. Wealth utility for a risk-averse utility maximizer
- Figure 2. CAPM predicted asset prices vs actual observed price
- Figure 3. M&A portfolio implied volatility and VIX index
- Figure 4. Logit curve regression for the probability of loss in revenue
-
- Table 1. EUT axioms
- Table 2. Results of logit curve regression of loss to revenue and IE
- Table 3. Correlation of adjusted CAPM returns to actual share prices
-
- Akerlof, G. (1970). The market for lemons: Qualitative uncertainty and the market mechanism. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84(3), 488-500.
- Baker, M., Pan, X., & Wurgler, J. (2012). The effect of reference point prices on mergers and acquisitions. Journal of Financial Economics, 106(1), 49-71.
- Bentham, J., & Bowring, J. (1843). The Works of Jeremy Bentham (Vol. 7).
- Bergstresser, D., Desai, M., & Rauh, J. (2006). Earnings manipulation, pension assumptions, and managerial investment decisions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(1), 157-195.
- Bernhardt, T., Erlinger, D., & Unterreiner, L. (2014). IFRS 9: the new rules for hedge accounting from the risk management perspective. ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives, 3(3), 53-66.
- Bernoulli, D. (1954). Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk. Econometrica, 22(1), 22-36.
- Björkman, M. (1984). Decision making, risk taking and psychological time: Review of empirical findings and psychological theory. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 25(1), 31-49.
- Bousquin, J. (2017, April, 25). The complicated new world of M&A deals in 2017. Builder.
- Bruner, R. (2004). Applied mergers and acquisitions. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
- Castagna, A. D., & Matolcsy, Z. P. (1985). Accounting ratios and models of takeover target screens: Some empirical evidence. Australian Journal of Management, 10(1), 1-15.
- Clere, R., & Marande, S. (2018). Default risk and equity value: forgotten factor or cultural revolution?
- Coombs, C. H., & Huang, L. (1970). Tests of a portfolio theory of risk preference. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 85(1), 23-29.
- Faff, R. W., Hillier, D., & Hillier, J. (2000). Time varying beta risk: An analysis of alternative modelling techniques. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 27(5‐6), 523-554.
- Fama, E. F., & Jensen, M. C. (1983). Separation of ownership and control. The journal of law and Economics, 26(2), 301-325.
- Fama, E. F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M. C., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.
- Givoly, D., & Lakonishok, J. (1979). The information content of financial analysts’ forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1(3), 165-185.
- Hull, C. (2010). Futures, options and other derivatives (8th ed.) (293 p.). USA: Prentice Hall.
- Jain, S., Yongvanich, A., & Zhou, X. (2011). Alpha characteristics of hedge funds. UBS Alternative Investments.
- Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). PT: An analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
- Kalman, R. (1960). A new approach to linear filter and prediction theory. Journal of Basic Engineering, 82(3), 35-45.
- Lazonick, W., & O’Sullivan, M. (2000). Maximising shareholder value: a new ideology for corporate governance. Economy and Society, 29(1), 13-35.
- Li, J., & Tang, Y. I. (2010). CEO hubris and firm risk taking in China: The moderating role of managerial discretion. Academy of Management Journal, 53(1), 45-68.
- MacKinlay, A. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
- Main, B. G., O’Reilly, C. A., & Wade, J. (1995). The CEO, the board of directors and executive compensation: Economic and psychological perspectives. Industrial and Corporate Change, 4(2), 293-332.
- Markowitz, H. (1952). The utility of wealth. Journal of Political Economy, 60(2), 151-158.
- Mill, J. S., & Warnock, M. (2003). Utilitarianism and On Liberty: Including ’Essay on Bentham’ and Selections from the Writings of Jeremy Bentham and John Austin (152 p.). Malden: Blackwell.
- Niu, W., & Zeng, Q. (2017). Security issuance and price impact under loss aversion. International Journal of Financial Engineering, 4(2-3).
- Roll, R., & Ross, S. A. (1983). Regulation, the capital asset pricing model, and the arbitrage pricing theory. Public Utilities Fortnightly, 111(11), 22-28.
- Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
- Shavell, S. (1979). On moral hazard and insurance. In Foundations of Insurance Economics (pp. 280-301). Springer, Dordrecht.
- Thomson, D., & van Vuuren, G. (2018). Attribution of hedge fund returns using a Kalman filter. Applied Economics, 50(1), 1-16.
- Treynor, J. L. (1961). Market value, time, and risk.
- Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in PT: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4), 297-323.
- Underhill, L., & Bradfield, D. (1996). IntroSTAT. 2nd edition: 181-198. Juta Academic, South Africa.
- Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (2007). Theory of games and economic behavior (commemorative edition). Princeton university press.