Comparative assessment of financial stability in waste management companies: Ukraine and the European Union under geopolitical fragmentation

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The study provides a comparative empirical assessment of the financial stability of waste management companies in Ukraine and the EU under geopolitical fragmentation and war-induced shocks. The sample includes 2,371 firms from the Orbis database operating in waste collection, recycling, and disposal from 2019 to 2023. The methodology combines correlation analysis, K-means clustering, and robustness checks using hierarchical and DBSCAN algorithms. Financial stability is measured by liquidity, solvency, and profitability. Wartime data gaps are addressed using median and k-NN imputation. The results identify three financial profiles (resilient, balanced, at-risk) in both regions but reveal profound structural asymmetries. In the EU, even at-risk companies maintain positive solvency (13.9%) and marginal ROA (0.81%), reflecting stable institutional conditions. In contrast, Ukrainian at-risk firms exhibit critical financial distress, with near-zero solvency (0.09%) and deeply negative profitability (ROA (–11.2%), ROE (–15.9%)), indicating capital destruction due to war-related shocks. A key finding is the weakening of financial coherence in Ukraine, with a significantly lower correlation between ROA and liquidity (0.60) than in the EU (0.78), confirming a structural break after 2022. Additionally, resilient Ukrainian firms show abnormally high liquidity (Current Ratio 7.91 vs. 3.51 in the EU), indicating precautionary cash hoarding and investment paralysis under extreme uncertainty. The findings confirm that geopolitical shocks transform financial behavior, whereby EU companies maintain efficiency-driven models and Ukrainian firms shift toward survival-oriented strategies. The study offers micro-level evidence of war-induced disruption to financial stability and proposes policy measures for recapitalization, green finance, and alignment with EU sustainability frameworks.

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    • Table 1. Input parameters for the model (averaged data for 2023–2024)
    • Table 2. Centroids of financial stability clusters for EU companies
    • Table 3. Centroids of financial stability clusters for Ukrainian companies
    • Table 4. Correlation matrix of financial indicators for Ukrainian companies (2019–2023 average indicators)
    • Table 5. Correlation matrix of financial indicators for EU companies (2019–2023 average indicators)
    • Table A1. Comparison of methodologies for analyzing the financial condition of companies
    • Table B1. Strategic recommendations for eliminating structural imbalances for Ukrainian companies
    • Conceptualization
      Iryna Zamula, Serhii Lehenchuk
    • Investigation
      Iryna Zamula, Serhii Lehenchuk, Svitlana Laichuk, Hanna Khomenko, Iryna Polishchuk
    • Methodology
      Iryna Zamula, Serhii Lehenchuk, Hanna Khomenko, Nelia Proskurina
    • Supervision
      Iryna Zamula, Serhii Lehenchuk
    • Writing – original draft
      Iryna Zamula, Serhii Lehenchuk, Iryna Polishchuk
    • Writing – review & editing
      Iryna Zamula, Serhii Lehenchuk, Svitlana Laichuk, Hanna Khomenko, Nelia Proskurina, Oksana Vakun
    • Project administration
      Serhii Lehenchuk
    • Formal Analysis
      Svitlana Laichuk, Iryna Polishchuk, Nelia Proskurina, Oksana Vakun
    • Funding acquisition
      Svitlana Laichuk, Hanna Khomenko
    • Resources
      Svitlana Laichuk, Iryna Polishchuk, Nelia Proskurina, Oksana Vakun
    • Validation
      Svitlana Laichuk, Hanna Khomenko, Nelia Proskurina, Oksana Vakun
    • Data curation
      Hanna Khomenko, Iryna Polishchuk, Nelia Proskurina, Oksana Vakun
    • Visualization
      Hanna Khomenko, Iryna Polishchuk, Nelia Proskurina, Oksana Vakun
    • Software
      Iryna Polishchuk, Oksana Vakun