Valuating the capital structure under incomplete information
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.05
-
Article InfoVolume 20 2023, Issue #3, pp. 48-67
- Cited by
- 358 Views
-
137 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Can higher uncertainty increase the valuation (market-to-book value) of young firms compared to more established ones? As the current market shows higher levels of uncertainty about companies’ expected cash flows and changes in firm value, the question of the fundamental convex relationship between the two becomes more relevant. This paper aims to study how cash flow uncertainty affects the capital structure/leverage of a firm over time. A simple Bayesian learning framework is employed to assess leverage ratios in the presence of parameter uncertainty about expected cash flow. This study provides an analytical solution for leverage as a function of firm age and explores the implications using numerical results. The model links market leverage with expected cash flow volatility and firm age. Young firms face uncertainty about their expected cash flows and hence their firm value. Managers continuously update their evaluation of leverage ratios when they observe realized cash flow until firms reach maturity. Therefore, the paper provides a novel explanation of why the leverage ratio for many start-ups increases over time: the resolution of uncertainty decreases upside shock expectations as the firm ages. This result is useful both for academics, who can test the formulas derived in this paper for various industries, countries, and conditions, and for practitioners, who can use them to calibrate algorithmic trading models when linking uncertainty and firm valuation.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G12, G13, G31, G32
-
References61
-
Tables0
-
Figures6
-
- Figure 1. Market value is convex in mean cash flow
- Figure 2. Leverage ratio declines over mean log cash flow
- Figure 3. Posterior volatility declines over age
- Figure 4. Cash flow volatility is inversely related to leverage ratios
- Figure 5. Leverage ratio varies over age without learning
- Figure 6. Leverage ratio varies over age with learning
-
- Benzoni, L., Garlappi, L., & Goldstein, R. S. (2022). Incomplete Information, Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads. Management Science.
- Black, F., & Cox, J. C. (1976). Valuing corporate securities: Some effects of bond indenture provisions. Journal of Finance, 31(2), 351-367.
- Bradley, M., Jarrell, G. A., & Kim, E. H. (1984). On the existence of an optimal capital structure: Theory and evidence. Journal of Finance, 39(3), 857-878.
- Brennan, M. J., & Xia, Y. (2001). Stock return volatility and equity premium. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47(2), 249-283.
- Broadie, M., Chernov, M., & Sundaresan, S. (2007). Optimal debt and equity values in the presence of chapter 7 and chapter 11. Journal of Finance, 62(3), 1341-1377.
- Bulana, L., & Yanb, Z. (2010). Firm maturity and the pecking order theory. International Journal of Business and Economics, 9(3), 179-200.
- Collin-Dufresne, P., & Goldstein, R. S. (2001). Do credit spreads reflect stationary leverage ratios? Journal of Finance, 56(5), 1929-1957.
- Cremers, M., & Yan, H. (2016). Uncertainty and Valuations. Critical Finance Review, 5, 85-128.
- Damodaran, A. (2001). Corporate finance: Theory and practice. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
- DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L., & Stulz, R. M. (2006). Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life cycle theory. Journal of Financial Economics, 81(2), 227-254.
- DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L., & Whited, T. M. (2011). Capital structure dynamics and transitory debt. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(2), 235-261.
- DeHan, C. P. (2014). Capital structure over the life cycle. Advances in Business Research, 5, 16-32.
- Dickinson, V. (1984). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle. The Accounting Review, 86(6), 1969-1994.
- Dudley, E., & James, C. (2015). Cash flow volatility and capital structure choice.
- Duffie, D., & Lando, D. (2001). Term structure of credit spreads with incomplete accounting information. Econometrica, 69, 633-64.
- Duffie, D. (1996). Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory. Princeton University Press.
- Feltham, G. A., & Ohlson, J. A. (1995). Valuation and clean surplus accounting for operating and financial activities. Contemporary Accounting Research, 11(2), 689-731.
- Feltham, G. A., & Ohlson, J. A. (1999). Residual earnings valuation with risk and stochastic interest rates. The Accounting Review, 74(2), 165-183.
- Frank, M., & Goyal, V. (2003). Testing the pecking order theory of capital structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 67(2), 217-248.
- Frank, M. Z., & Goyal, V. K. (2009). Capital structure decisions: Which factors are reliably important? Financial Management, 38(1), 1-37.
- Frielinghaus, A., Mostert, B., & Firer, C. (2005). Capital structure and the firm’s life stage. South African Journal of Business Management, 36(4), 9-18.
- Goldstein, R., Ju, N., & Leland, H. (2001). An EBIT-based model of dynamic capital structure. Journal of Business, 74(4), 483-512.
- Gorbenko, A., & Strebulaev, I. (2010). Temporary versus permanent shocks: Explaining corporate financial policies. Review of Financial Studies, 23(7), 2591-2647.
- Graham, J., & Harvey, C. (2001). The theory and practice of capital structure: Evidence from field. Journal of Financial Economics, 60(2-3), 187-243.
- Graham, J., & Harvey, C. (2011). A review of empirical capital structure research and directions for the future. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 3, 309-345.
- Graham, J. R. (2000). How big are the tax benefits of debt? Journal of Finance, 55(5), 1901-1941.
- Graham, J. R., Leary, M. T., & Roberts, M. R. (2014). A century of corporate capital structure: The leveraging of corporate America. Journal of Financial Economics, 118(3), 658-683.
- Jensen, M., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360.
- Ju, N., & Ou- Yang, H. (2006). Capital structure, debt maturity, and stochastic interest rates. The Journal of Business, 79, 2469-2502.
- Larrain, B., & Yogo. M. (2008). Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow? Journal of Financial Economics, 87, 200-226.
- Leary, M. T., & Roberts, M. R. (2005). Do firms rebalance their capital structures? Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2575-2619.
- Leland, H. (1994). Corporate debt value, bond covenants, and optimal capital structure. Journal of Finance, 49(4), 1213-1252.
- Leland, H. (1998). Agency costs, risk management, and capital structure. Journal of Finance, 53(4), 1213-1243.
- Leland, H., & Toft, K. (1996). Optimal capital structure, endogenous bankruptcy and the term structure of credit spreads. Journal of Finance, 51(3), 987-1019.
- Liu, B., Liu, Y., Pen, J., & Yang, J. (2017). Optimal capital structure and credit spread under incomplete information. International Review of Economics and Finance, 49, 596-611.
- Mackay, P., & Gorden, P. M. (2005). How does industry affect firm financial structure? Review of Financial Studies, 18(4), 1433-1466.
- Martin, T. B., Sakoulis, G., & Henriksson, R. (2016). Bubbles, anti-bubbles, and equity expected returns. NBER.
- Merton, R. C. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 29(2), 449-470.
- Miller, D., & Friesen, P. (1984). A longitudinal study of the corporate life cycle. Management Science, 30(10), 1161-1183.
- Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, 48(3), 261-297.
- Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. (1963). Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital: a correction. American Economic Review, 53(3), 433-443.
- Morellec, E., Nikolov, B., & Schuerhoff, N. (2012). Corporate governance and capital structure dynamics. Journal of Finance, 67(3), 803-848.
- Morgan, I. W., & Abetti, P. A. (2004). Private and public ‘cradle to maturity’ financing pattern of U.S. biotech ventures. Journal of Private Equity, 7(2), 9-25.
- Morrelec, E. (2004). Can managerial discretion explain observed leverage ratios? Review of Financial Studies, 17(1), 257-294.
- Mueller, D. (1972). A life cycle theory of firms. Journal of Industrial Economics, 20(3), 199-219.
- Myers, S. C. (1984). The capital structure puzzle. Journal of Finance, 39(3), 575-592.
- Opler, T. C., & Sheridan, T. (1994). Financial distress and corporate performance. Journal of Finance, 49(3), 1015-1040.
- Pástor, Ľ., & Veronesi, P. (2003). Stock valuation and learning about profitability. Journal of Finance, 58(5), 1749-1789.
- Pástor, Ľ., & Veronesi, P. (2006). Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s? Journal of Financial Economics, 81(1), 61-100.
- Pástor, Ľ., & Veronesi, P. (2009a). Learning in financial markets. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 1(1), 361-381.
- Pástor, Ľ., & Veronesi, P. (2009b). Technological revolutions and stock prices. American Economic Review, 99(4), 1451-1483.
- Pástor, Ľ. P., Veronesi, L., & Taylor (2009). Entrepreneurial learning, the IPO decision, and the post- IPO drop in firm profitability. Review of Financial Studies, 22(8), 3005-3046.
- Spence, M. (1977). Entry, capacity, investment, and oligopolistic pricing. Bell Journal of Economics, 8(2), 534-544.
- Strebulaev, I. A. (2007). Do tests of capital structure theory mean what they say? Journal of Finance, 62(4), 1747-1787.
- Strebulaev, I., & Yang, B. (2013). The mystery of zero-leverage firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(1), 1-23.
- Titman, S., & Wessels, R. (1988). The determinants of capital structure. Journal of Finance, 43(1), 1-19.
- Welch, I. (2004). Capital structure and stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 112(1), 106-131.
- Wernerfelt, B. (1985). The dynamics of prices and market shares over the product life cycle. Management Science, 31(8), 928-939.
- Whited, T., & Riddick, L. (2009). The corporate propensity to save. Journal of Finance, 64(4), 1729-1766.
- Xia, Y. (2001). Learning about predictability: the effects of parameter uncertainty on dynamic asset allocation. Journal of Finance, 56(1), 205-246.
- Yang, B. (2013). Dynamic capital structure with heterogeneous beliefs and market timing. Journal of Corporate Finance, 22, 254-277.