An application of Altman Z-score model to analyze the bankruptcy risk: cases of multidisciplinary enterprises in Vietnam
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(4).2019.16
-
Article InfoVolume 16 2019, Issue #4, pp. 181-191
- Cited by
- 2373 Views
-
2548 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This study applied Altman Z-score model to assess the bankruptcy risk of a set of multidisciplinary enterprises of various types, mainly small and medium enterprises, with data taken from official financial reports of 180 enterprises in Soc Trang province. The binary logistic regression was employed to assess the impact of non-financial and financial factors on the bankruptcy risk of enterprises. The research findings showed that both the non-financial factors such as business area, types and size of the business, the educational level of managers and executors and other characteristics, and the financial factors (indicators) such as earnings before tax, net profit/equity ratio, earnings before interest and tax/total assets ratio, equity/total debt ratio, affect the bankruptcy risk of enterprises. Predicting the bankruptcy risk and measuring its determinants play an important role not only as an effective managing tool of the business, but also as evidence for policymakers to support the sustainable development of business.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G32, G33
-
References50
-
Tables5
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Bankruptcy risks of enterprises by industries
- Table 2. The difference in bankruptcy risk between business fields
- Table 3. The bankruptcy risks by types
- Table 4. The difference in bankruptcy risk between types of enterprises
- Table 5. Determinants of bankruptcy risk in the binary logistic model
-
- Akben-Selcuk, E. (2016). Does Firm Age Affect Profitability? Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economic Sciences, 5(3), 1-9.
- Alkhatib, K., & Al Bzour, A. E. (2011). Predicting corporate bankruptcy of Jordanian listed companies: Using Altman and Kida Models. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(3), 208-215.
- Aloy Niresh, J., & Pratheepan, T. (2015). The Application of Altman’s Z-Score Model in Predicting Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Trading Sector in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Business and Management, 10(12), 269-275.
- Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
- Altman, E. I. (2018). A Fifty-Year Retrospective on Credit Risk Models, the Altman Z -Score Family of Models and their Applications to Financial Markets and Managerial Strategies. Journal of Credit Risk, 14(4).
- Altman, E. I. (2018). Applications of Distress Prediction Models: What Have We Learned After 50 Years from the Z-Score Models? International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(3), 70.
- Altman, E. I., Haldeman, R. G., & Narayanan, P. (1977). ZETATM analysis: A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations. Journal of Banking & Finance, 1(1), 29-54.
- Altman, E., Hartzell, J., & Peck, M. (1995). Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds – A Scoring System. Emerging Market Capital Flows, 391-400.
- Amran, N. A. (2011). The Effect of Owner’s Gender and Age to Firm Performance: A Review On Malaysian Public Listed Family Businesses. Journal of Global Business and Economics, 2(1), 104-116.
- Anh, L. C. H., & Hang, N. T. (2012). Kiểm định mô hình chỉ số Z của Altman trong dự báo thất bại doanh nghiệp tại Việt Nam. Tạp chí Công nghệ Ngân hàng, 74 (in Vietnamese).
- Apoorva, D. V., Curpod, S. P., & Namratha (2019). Application of Altman Z Score Model on Selected Indian Companies to Predict Bankruptcy. International Journal of Business and Management Invention, 8(01), 77-82.
- Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4, 71-111.
- Becchetti, L., & Sierra, J. (2003). Bankruptcy risk and productive efficiency in manufacturing firms. Journal of Banking & Finance, 27(11), 2099-2120.
- Bertrand, M., & Schoar, A. (2003), Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1169-1208.
- Bhatt, S. N. (2012). Capital Structure and Turnaround Strategies using Altman’s Z-Score Models. Asian Journal of Research in Business, Economics and Management, 2(7), 102-113.
- Canh, N. P. (2014). Ứng dụng mô hình Z-score vào quản lý rủi ro tín dụng cho các ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam. Tạp chí Phát triển và hội nhập, 15(25), 46-50 (in Vietnamese).
- Cheng, L. T. W., Chan, R. Y. K., & Leung, T. Y. (2010). Management demography and corporate performance: Evidence from China. International Business Review, 19(3), 261-275.
- Cuong, N. T., & Anh, P. T. (2010). Đánh giá nguy cơ phá sản của các doanh nghiệp chế biến thủy sản đang niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam. Tạp chí Khoa học Công nghệ Thủy sản – Trường Đại học Nha Trang, 02, 27-33 (in Vietnamese).
- Duong, N. T. (2013). Phân tích rủi ro trong hoạt động ngân hang. Tạp chí Phát triển và hội nhập, 9(19), 29-39 (in Vietnamese).
- Hanh, D. M., & Hoa, N. K. (2016). Ứng dụng mô hình Z-score và xếp hạng tín nhiệm doanh nghiệp vào quản lý rủi ro tín dụng tại các ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam. Tạp chí Công thương, 07-Tháng 7/2016, 142-148 (in Vietnamese).
- Hambrick, D. C., & Mason, P. A. (1984). Upper Echelons: The Organization as a Reflection of Its Top Managers. Academy of Management Review, 9(2), 193-206.
- Harhoff, D., Stahl, K., & Woywode, M. (1998). Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms-Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries. Journal of Industrial Economics, 46(4), 453-488.
- Hieu, N. V. (2015). Vận dụng mô hình “Z-Score” để kiểm định kết quả phân hạng tín dụng nội bộ và ước lượng xác suất vỡ nợ. Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Tài chính kế toán, 8(145), 26-30 (in Vietnamese).
- Hsu, C. S., Kuo, L., & Chang, B. G. (2013). Gender Difference in Profit Performance – Evidence from the Owners of Small Public Accounting Practices in Taiwan. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 5(1), 140-159.
- Huang, S. K. (2013). The Impact of CEO Characteristics on Corporate Sustainable Development. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 20(4), 234-244.
- Hussain, F., Ali, I., Ullah, S., & Ali, M. (2014). Can Altman Z-score Model Predict Business failures in Pakistan? Evidence from Textile companies of Pakistan. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(13), 10-115.
- Inmyxai, S., & Takahashi, Y. (2010). Performance Contrast and Its Determinants between Male and Female Headed Firms in Lao MSMEs. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(4), 37-52.
- Jalbert, T. (2002). Does School Matter? An Empirical Analysis Of CEO Education, Compensation, And Firm Performance. International Business & Economics Research Journal, 1(1), 83-98.
- Jan, A. & Marimuthu, M. (2015). Altman Model and Bankruptcy Profile of Islamic Banking Industry: A Comparative Analysis on Financial Performance. International Journal of Business and Management, 10(7), 110-119.
- Joh, S. W., & Jung, J. Y. (2016). Top Managers’ Academic Credentials and Firm Value. Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies, 45(2), 185-221.
- Khan, W. A., & Vieito, J. P. (2013). Ceo gender and firm performance. Journal of Economics and Business, 67, 55-66.
- Khoi, P. D., Loc, T. D., & Danh, V. T. (2008), Tổng quan về kinh tế tư nhân ở Đồng bằng sông Cửu Long. Nhà xuất bản Giáo Dục, Cần Thơ (in Vietnamese).
- Lubawa, G., & Louangrath, P. (2016). Using Altman Z-Score to Assess the Financial Effects of Multiple Loans on SMEs. International Journal of Research and Methodology in Social Science, 2(1), 63-88.
- Nghi, N. Q., & Nam, M. V. (2011). Các nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến hiệu quả hoạt động kinh doanh của doanh nghiệp nhỏ và vừa ở Thành phố Cần Thơ. Tạp chí Khoa học Trường Đại học Cần Thơ, 19, 122-129 (in Vietnamese).
- Odibi, I., Basit, A., & Hassan, Z. (2015). Bankruptcy prediction using Altman z-score model: A case of public listed manufacturing companies in Malaysia. International Journal of Accounting and Business Management, 3(2), 178-186.
- Omondi, M. M., & Muturi, W. (2013). Factors Affecting the Financial Performance of Listed Companies at the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4(15), 99-104.
- Park, Y., Shin, J., & Kim, T. (2009). Firm size, age, industrial networking, and growth: a case of the Korean manufacturing industry. Small Business Economics, 35(2), 153-168.
- Pi, L., & Timme, S. G. (1993). Corporate Control and Bank Efficiency. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2(3), 515-530.
- Plandor, D., & Landryova, L. (2012). Bankruptcy and Financial Standing Models Application for SMEs. The Seventh International Conference on Software Engineering Advances, 161-164.
- Pradhan, R. (2014). Z-Score Estimation for Indian Banking Sector. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 5(6), 516-520.
- Ramana, V., Azash, S. Md., & Ramakrishnaiah, K. (2012). Financial performance and predicting the risk of bankruptcy: A case of selected cement companies in India. International Journal of Public administration and Management research, 1(1), 40-56.
- Saini, V. (2018). A Study on Financial Performance of Tata Chemicals in Fertilizer Sector: A ’Z’ Score Approach. International Journal of Basic and Applied Research, 8(9), 280-286.
- Salman, A. K., & Yazdanfar, D. (2012). Profitability in Swedish Micro Firms: A Quantile Regression Approach. International Business Research, 5(8), 94-106.
- Selassie, E. G., Tarekegn, G., & Ufo, A. (2016). Analysis of Financial Distress and its Determinants in Selected SMEs in Wolaita Zone. Global Journal of Management and Business Research: C Finance, 16(8), 35-41.
- Sulphey, M. M., & Nisa, S. (2013). The Analytical Implication of Altman’s Z Score Analysis of BSE Listed Small Cap Companies. Global Journal of Commerce & Management Perspective, 2(4), 145-155.
- Taffler, R. J. (1983). The Assessment of Company solvency and Performance Using a Statistical Model. Accounting and Business Research, 13(52), 295-307.
- Tam, K. Y., & Kiang, M. Y. (1992). Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions. Management Science, 38(7), 926-947.
- Tan, N. M., Danh, V. T., & Ngan, T. T. (2015). Các nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến hiệu quả hoạt động kinh doanh của doanh nghiệp nhỏ và vừa tại tỉnh Bạc Liêu. Tạp chí Khoa học Trường Đại học Cần Thơ, 38, 34-40 (in Vietnamese).
- Van, P. T. T. (2016). Xem xét khả năng sử dụng mô hình Z-score trong đánh giá tình hình hoạt động của doanh nghiệp Việt Nam (in Vietnamese).
- VCCI (2018). United States Agency for International Development. Provincial Competitiveness Index Report of Vietnam, 14, 23-24.